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KOMUNIKACJA BANKU CENTRALNEGO Z RYNKIEM A STABILIZOWANIE OCZEKIWAŃ INFLACYJNYCH

100%
Szyszko M.
Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny
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2012
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vol. 74
|
issue 2
161-176
EN
The paper focuses on the central bank’s optimal communication with the market participants, and analyses the impact of the disclosure of the central bank’s intentions on the expectations of the economic agents. The stabilisation of inflation expectations is the main task of the monetary authorities. The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the relationship between the central bank forecasts and expectations. The text is organised as follows: section II describes the ways in which central banks signal their future policy actions. The inflation forecasts as tools influencing the expectations are described in section III. Section IV, in turn, provides an overview of the theoretical and empirical research on inflation forecasts, expectations and other economic variables. The paper also contains the description of pros and cons of publishing the policy path. The analysis of the research together with practical aspects does not lead to any explicit conclusions on the interdependences of inflation forecasts and expectations. The influence of the central bank forecasts is diverse and varies over time. However, central banks include a forecast disclosure in their communication strategy because of its potential advantages.
PL
Artykuł wpisuje się dyskusję poświęconą optymalnej komunikacji banku centralnego z rynkiem. Przede wszystkim akcentuje wpływ publikacji informacji o intencjach banku centralnego na oczekiwania podmiotów gospodarczych. Celem naukowym jest analiza związków między tymi zmiennymi. W kolejnych częściach tekstu opisano sposoby sygnalizowania intencji przez bank centralny (2), scharakteryzowano szczególną rolę prognoz inflacji jako instrumentu wywierającego wpływ na oczekiwania i czynniki wspierające oraz zaburzające wypełnianie tej funkcji (3) oraz dokonano przeglądu badań teoretycznych i empirycznych na temat związków między prognozą inflacji a oczekiwaniami i innym zmiennymi gospodarczymi (4). Opracowanie porusza również wątki kosztów i korzyści związanych z publikacją ścieżki stóp przez bank centralny. Analiza wyników badań oraz argumentów praktycznych nie prowadzi do jednoznacznych wniosków o przełożeniu prognoz inflacji na oczekiwania podmiotów gospodarczych. Wpływ prognoz jest zróżnicowany i zmienny w czasie. Banki centralne, kształtując strategię komunikacji, uwzględniają jednak korzyści związane z publikacją prognoz.
2
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HOW THE CENTRAL BANK MAKES DECISION ON INTEREST RATES? A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FORECAST IMPORTANCE

94%
Szyszko M.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
|
2017
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vol. 12
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issue 2
281-294
EN
Research background: Most of the modern central banks (CBs) acknowledge the role of economic agents’ expectations in monetary policy. To shape these expectations and to over-come the lags occurrence, CBs produce and reveal macroeconomic forecast and declare that it is the input into their deliberations and monetary policy adjustments. This is how central banks implement inflation forecast targeting. The formal assessments of actual forecast importance in central banks’ decisions is not presented in the literature — to the best author’s knowledge. Purpose of the article: The paper is of methodological nature. It presents the index that compares inflation forecast importance in the central banks decisions. The elaboration of such index is the main goal of the paper. The index is tested empirically for Czechia and Sweden. Methods: Comparably to other research presenting the tools that approximate some qualitative variables, the methodological part of the paper offers the description of the factors covered by the index with their justification and point attribution. The index is suitable to assess CBs decision’s accordance with the forecast produced under constant rate assumption as well as under endogenous interest rates. It is designed to cover low quality data as the time series on the central path of the forecast are not always accessible. In this cases only the relation of the forecast to the inflation target is revealed on the fan charts. Findings & Value added: The index elaboration and its calculation for Czechia and Sweden is presented in the paper. It thus contributes to the literature on ex post assessment of the central bank’s actions. This formalized assessment opens the field for making further con-clusions on inflation forecast targeting implementations and possible impact of the forecast on the economic agents' expectations.
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