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EN
This article aims at analysing the significance of the intra-industry trade in the Polish foreign trade in agri-food products and assessment of the competitiveness of the Polish food sector on this basis. The analysis uses, first of all, the index introduced by Grubel and Lloyd (hereinafter referred to as GL index), which is a commonly used indicator of intra-industry trade intensity and one of the measures of international competitiveness. The analysis showed that in the period of Poland’s membership in the European Union the foreign trade in agri-food products noted a significant boost and the competitive position of Polish food producers improved on the international scale. At the same time, the intensity level of intra-industry trade in these products increased considerably. In 2001-2011, the importance of intra-industry trade in the Polish agri-food trade increased by over 14 percentage points. Consequently, in 2011 almost 50% of the trade in agri-food products was intra-industry trade. A predominant part of this exchange was horizontal intra-industry trade, including trade in goods differentiated in respect to a given industry that were relatively highly processed and showed a high level of substitutability between each other. The intra-industry trade in differentiated products of lower level of processing was less intensive. These products included agricultural raw materials and homogeneous products. Moreover, as regards the food sector a quite significant part was played by vertical intra-industry trade, including re-export, i.e. export of finished goods manufactured form raw materials imported from other climate zones. The growing intensity level of intra-industry trade in agri-food products is one of the markers of high competitiveness of the Polish food producers.
EN
This study has investigated the country-specific determinants of intra-industry exchange between Poland and its European Union trading partners during the time period 2002–2011. The analysis of the factors determining the Polish bilateral intra-industry trade with European Union countries applied an econometric model for panel data. As follows from the research, the intensity of intra-industry trade is dependent on numerous factors. The factors that exert a positive impact on the development of intra-trade exchange include the participation of processed products in bilateral trade between Poland and UE states, the intensity of trade with specific countries as well as the size of a partner country measured by its GDP per capita. Increases in the intra-trade turnover are also facilitated by EU membership and by the fact that Poland’s trade partners use a similar language, belonging to the group of the Slavic languages. The intensity of intra-trade exchange is weakened by the degree of the imbalance of trade turnover between trading partners, geographical distance that separates trading partners and significant differences in the size of trading partners’ GDPs.
EN
Research background: This paper extends the early papers by Brander (1981) and Brander and Krugman (1983) who used a simple partial equilibrium Cournot duopoly to a full general equilibrium setting. The explanations of intra-industry trade can be based either on oligopolistic reciprocal dumping idea (Brander, 1981) or product differentiation (Dixit and Norman, 1980; Krugman, 1979, 1980, 1981; Lancaster, 1980; Helpman, 1981). In this paper we combine both explanations in a unified general equilibrium model. Purpose of the article: We develop a two-sector, one-factor general equilibrium model, in which the first sector produces a differentiated good under monopolistic competition and the second sector produces a homogenous good under Cournot oligopolistic competition. In this paper, we study how competition between domestic and foreign firms resulting from trade liberalization affects intra-industry trade in both sectors. Methods: The paper develops a two-sector model based on several assumptions. Consumers have a two-tier utility function of the Cobb-Douglas-Spence-Dixit-Stiglitz form. Firms operate in two sectors and produce goods under increasing returns to scale resulting from the existence of fixed costs. One sector produces homogenous good under Cournot competition, and the second one produces a differentiated product in under Chamberlinian monopolistic competition. Free entry is assumed in both sectors. Labor is assumed to be the only factor of production with perfect mobility and full employment. Findings & Value added: In contrast to previous papers, our study is based on a full general equilibrium Cournot oligopoly framework with many firms. Moreover, we endogenize the number of firms and study the resulting trading equilibria. Therefore, this paper can be regarded as the extension and unification of the early papers by Brander (1981), Brander and Krugman (1983) and Krugman (1979, 1980).
EN
The article aims to show changes in the level and intensity of intra-industry trade between the Central European Free Trade Association (CEFTA) and the European Union. The analysis covers the period from CEFTA’s inception to the time when most of its member countries joined the EU. The structure of trade was examined using the Gruber-Lloyd indices of intra-industry trade (IIT), which are frequently used in such analyses. The IIT indices were calculated for 5,712 products according to 6-digit CN classification divided into 31 sections. The analysis showed that in 1993-2003: - The Gruber-Lloyd intra-industry trade indices for CEFTA’s trade with EU countries increased considerably. The greatest increase was noted for Poland (85%), Romania (61%), the Czech Republic (54%) and Slovakia (43%), while the slowest growth in the IIT index was reported for Bulgaria (20%). - The analyzed period marked a clear diversification in the growth of IIT indices by CN section in reference to individual countries. Countries with the lowest IIT indices (Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia) modified the structures of their trade with EU countries to a greater extent than countries with relatively high indices. - Another important change is that most countries displayed a tendency toward concentration of trade with the highest IIT indices in an increasingly smaller number of CN sections. Notably, there was also a “shift” in the concentration of the highest IIT indices toward sections 15-20, meaning those characterized by a relatively high level of innovation and technological advancement.
EN
The article examines the role of multinational companies originating from OECD countries in the fragmentation of production processes in Poland. The author also discusses the ways in which multinational companies influence Poland’s foreign trade. Cieślik sets out to check if multinational companies contribute to the fragmentation of international production processes and if their operations lead to a growing proportion of intra-industry trade in Poland’s overall trade with individual OECD countries. The author verifies this hypothesis empirically, using panel data for 29 OECD countries for the 1994-2006 period. Statistical data for Poland’s foreign trade disprove the hypothesis. Empirical data obtained with the use of fixed and random effects estimators show that country-specific factors – rather than the operations of multinational companies – are responsible for the development of intra-industry trade between Poland and other OECD countries, Cieślik says. It thus turns out that incentives other than a desire to reduce production costs tend to be the key factors driving multinational companies in their business in Poland. Cieślik also dispels worries frequently voiced in developed countries that a growing number of businesses may be tempted to move labor-intensive stages of production to emerging markets such as Poland.
EN
Theoretical background: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the largest mega-regional trade agreement ever signed, accounting for more than 30% of the global population, exports, and gross domestic product (GDP). It is also the largest automotive market worldwide, with significant potential both in terms of automotive manufacturing and sales. Purpose of the article: The paper’s main objective is to characterize China-RCEP automotive trade in the years 2012–2021 with reference to key provisions and implications of the aforementioned mega-regional trade agreement for the automotive industry. In the empirical part of the paper, the authors attempt to verify the hypothesis that trade liberalization under RCEP may contribute to the expansion of the regional automotive industry in terms of trade volume, as well as fragmentation of value and supply chains. Research methods: The authors conducted an analysis of intra-industry trade disaggregated into 54 six-digit HS tariff codes using the Grubel–Lloyd and Balassa indexes, accompanied by cross sectional analysis and studies of sectoral reports and literature in the field of mega-regionalism in trade. Main findings: The hypothesis formulated in the introduction of the paper was verified positively –the authors provided an added value to previous empirical studies on RCEP, in the form of a perspective of the automotive industry and in-depth analysis of sectoral trends for the last ten years. The potential for further fragmentation of value and supply chains inside the region was identified, including the possibility of relocation of manufacturing and assembly activities to lower the cost of RCEP Member States to strengthen comparative advantages over extra-regional counterparts (EU, USMCA). The authors pointed at the prospective rising attractiveness of RCEP in automotive manufacturers’ location decisions worldwide, considering both costs, retreat from global-oriented manufacturing and export strategies, investment security, sustainable development, as well as geopolitical trends in respect of newly established tariff and non-tariff barriers.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono wyniki badania, w którym podjęto próbę weryfikacji trzech hipo-tez, odnoszących się do handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego (IIT) państw regionu Bałkanów Zachod-nich w latach 2007 i 2013. Porównano udział IIT w handlu ogółem państw bałkańskich w relacjach wzajemnych oraz z Unią Europejską. Przeanalizowano zmiany tych udziałów między rokiem 2007, kiedy weszło w życie Porozumienie CEFTA-2006, a rokiem 2013. Przedstawiono także IIT krajów regionu w rozbiciu na wymianę typu horyzontalnego (HIIT) oraz typu werty-kalnego towarami o niskiej jakości (VIIT-LQ) i typu wertykalnego towarami o wysokiej jakości (VIIT-HQ). Z badania wynika, że w przypadku połowy państw bałkańskich, IIT stanowił większą część handlu ogółem w relacjach wewnątrzregionalnych niż w relacjach z wysoko uprzemysło-wionymi krajami UE. Między latami 2007 i 2013 udział IIT wykazał większą dynamikę we-wnątrz regionu niż w relacji z UE, co potwierdza pozytywny wpływ porozumienia CEFTA-2006 na strukturę handlu. Ponadto w relacjach wewnątrzregionalnych wzrósł udział VIIT kosztem HIIT, co wskazuje na rosnące różnice cenowo-jakościowe towarów będących przedmiotem wy-miany.
EN
The aim of this paper was to verify three hypotheses related to the intra-industry trade (IIT) of the Western Balkan (WB) countries in 2007 and 2013. The shares of IIT in total trade of the WB countries in regional relations and in relations with the European Union (EU) were compared. Changes of these shares between 2007, when CEFTA-2006 agreement entered into force, and 2013 were analysed. Finally, the IIT of the Balkan countries was presented in the division for a horizontal type (HIIT), a vertical type of low quality goods (VIIT-LQ) and a vertical type of high quality goods (VIIT-HQ). The research revealed that in the case of half of the WB countries, the IIT share in total trade was higher in regional relations than in relation with the EU. Between 2007 and 2013, the share of IIT showed higher dynamics inside the region than in relations with highly industrialised countries of the EU. This finding confirms a positive influence of the CEFTA-2006 agreement on trade. Moreover, in regional relations the share of VIIT grew, and the share of HIIT dropped reversely, which indicates rising price-quality differences in traded goods.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono zmiany intensywności handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego (intra-industry trade - IIT) wyrobami przemysłu motoryzacyjnego w państwach Unii Europejskiej w latach 1995-2010, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem zmian struktury rodzajowej IIT. W analizowanym okresie intensywność wymiany wewnątrzgałęziowej w handlu pojazdami mechanicznymi oraz częściami i akcesoriami wzrastała w państwach UE-12, podczas gdy w państwach UE-15 notowany był tylko wzrost wskaźników IIT w handlu częściami i komponentami motoryzacyjnymi. Struktura rodzajowa IIT w handlu wyrobami przemysłu motoryzacyjnego w krajach UE-15 była stabilniejsza niż w krajach UE-12. W tych ostatnich od początku pierwszej dekady obecnego stulecia zachodziły wyraźne zmiany. Wiązały się one z procesem postępującej specjalizacji w produkcji i eksporcie małych samochodów, który wyraźnie nasilił się w okresie kryzysu finansowo-gospodarczego. Po pierwsze, w krajach UE-15 wzrósł udział pionowego IIT wysokiej jakości w handlu pojazdami oraz udział pionowego IIT niskiej jakości w handlu komponentami motoryzacyjnymi. Po drugie, w krajach UE-12 zwiększyło się znaczenie pionowego IIT niskiej jakości w handlu pojazdami oraz znaczenie pionowego IIT wysokiej jakości w handlu komponentami motoryzacyjnymi.
EN
The aim of the paper is to investigate the development of the intra-industry trade (IIT) in the automotive trade in the European Union during the period of 1995-2010. A special attention is paid to changes in the IIT patterns. Over the period, the IIT intensity both in motor vehicles, and parts and accessories thereof increased in the new EU countries (EU12), whereas in the old EU countries (EU15) a growth of the IIT indices only in the automobile components was noticed. The IIT pattern in the automotive trade of the EU15 was relatively more stable in comparison to the one in the automotive trade of the EU12. The process of progressive specialisation in production and exports of small cars in the EU12 intensified in 2009, during the economic and financial crisis. First, the share of the high quality vertical IIT in motor vehicles and the share of the low quality vertical IIT in automobile components in the EU15 increased. Second, the share of the low quality vertical IIT in motor vehicles and the share of the high quality vertical IIT in automobile components in the EU12 grew.
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2015
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vol. 5
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issue 316
EN
This paper is aimed at finding an empirical proof of the thesis of positive trade effects and endogeneity of accession criteria in the case of the European monetary union. We analyze how the European monetary union influences trade in goods of its Member States as well as – for comparison – of the New EU-Member States and the EFTA members. Additionally we analyze impast of the creation of the Eurozone on the economies of its Member States with the biggest economic problems especially since the last international crisis (2008) – the group PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain). We analyze not only changes in the aggregated trade in goods but changes in intra-industry trade as well. Finally we divide intra-industry trade into horizontal and vertical streams and analyze their changes. Our analysis covers the period 1995–2013. We start with the short presentation of trade effects of a monetary integration and analysis of the methods of measurement of intra-industry trade.
PL
Niniejszy artykuł ma na celu znalezienie empirycznego dowodu na potwierdzenie tezy o pozytywnych efektach handlowych i endogeniczności kryteriów akcesyjnych w przypadku europejskiej unii monetarnej. Analizujemy, jak europejska unia walutowa wpływa na handel towarowy jej państw członkowskich, jak również – dla porównania – nowych państw członkowskich Unii Europejskiej oraz członków EFTA. Dodatkowo badamy wpływ utworzenia strefy euro na gospodarki jej państw członkowskich mających największe problemy gospodarcze, zwłaszcza od czasu ostatniego kryzysu (2008 r.) – tzw. grupa PIGS (Portugalia, Irlandia, Grecja i Hiszpania). Analizie poddano nie tylko ogólne zmiany w wymianie towarowej, lecz także zmiany w wymianie wewnątrzgałęziowej. Na końcu zbadano też zmiany w handlu wewnątrzgałęziowym w podziale na handel poziomy i pionowy. Analiza obejmuje lata 1995–2013. Artykuł rozpoczyna krótka prezentacja efektów handlowych integracji monetarnej oraz przegląd metod pomiaru handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego.
EN
This article aims to assess the strength of links of intra-industry trade (IIT) between Poland and the euro area and the other Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries. The computed IIT indices serve to evaluate the degree of sustainability of business cycle convergence (and susceptibility to asymmetric shocks) in Poland and its trading partners as well as Poland’s preparedness for the adoption of the euro. The calcula-tions were made with the use of the standard Grubel–Lloyd index, meas-uring the share of intra-industry trade in a country’s total trade. The sta-tistical analysis for Poland was presented against the backdrop of theo-retical relationships between monetary integration and the related trade growth and business cycle convergence. The high index of IIT reflects the increasing similarity of Poland’s business cycle with the euro area and the complementarity of the Polish economy with the economic structures of the euro area partners. Thus, the business cycle correlation does not seem to be an obstacle for Poland to join the euro area.
PL
Celem artykułu jest ocena siły powiązań handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego (IIT) między Polską i krajami strefy euro oraz pozostałymi krajami unii gospodarczej i walutowej (UGW). Obliczone wskaźniki IIT stanowią podstawę oceny stopnia trwałości zbieżności cykli koniunkturalnych (i podatności na szoki asymetryczne) w Polsce i krajach partnerskich oraz stopnia przygotowania Polski do przyjęcia euro. Obliczeń dokonano przy użyciu standardowego indeksu Grubela-Lloyda, który mierzy udział handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego w handlu kraju ogółem. Analizę dla Polski przedstawiono na tle teoretycznych związków między integracją mone-tarną i wynikającym z niej wzrostem handlu a podatnością kraju na szoki asymetryczne. Wysoki wskaźnik IIT odzwierciedla rosnące podobieństwo cyklu ko-niunkturalnego Polski z cyklami krajów strefy euro i komplementarność polskiej gospodarki ze strukturą gospodarek strefy euro. Wynika z tego, że stopień synchronizacji cyklu koniunkturalnego nie wydaje się być w Polsce przeszkodą w przystąpieniu do strefy euro.
EN
Since the Polish economy is facing new challenges, the debate on introducing the euro once again becomes relevant. Due to the fact that the nominal convergence criteria currently ‘differ’ from the macroeconomic reality even in the euro area itself, it is justified to pay attention to the conditions of real convergence. The aim of the study is to assess the convergence of Poland and the euro area from the perspective of the share of intra-industry trade, as well as the degree of convergence of cyclical fluctuations in these economies. Quantitative research methods were used in the work (statistical analysis). The conducted research shows that the share of IIT in Poland and the euro area (measured by the Grubel-Lloyd index) was characterized by a growing trend, which proves the intensification of trade integration. However, this growth halted at the end of 2016. The growing and relatively high convergence of cyclical fluctuations in the analysed economies (measured by the recursive correlation coefficient) was observed until the end of 2013. In the following years, a decline and then fluctuations in the degree of this convergence were noted. In this context, it should be emphasized that the degree of synchronization of fluctuations in the economic activity of Poland and the euro area was conditioned by specific, asymmetric events for a large part of the research period. In view of the research results obtained, it can be concluded that Poland is characterized by a ‘moderate’ degree of real convergence with the euro area, but it is not advisable to give a definitive and final assessment of the analysed phenomena and answer the question of whether this level is sufficient to introduce the common currency. Therefore, all the dilemmas justify the need to continue and expand research in this area. 
PL
W obliczu nowych wyzwań, przed którymi stoi polska gospodarka, debata na temat przyjęcia euro ponownie zyskuje na aktualności. Z uwagi na to, iż nominalne kryteria konwergencji obecnie ,„odbiegają” od rzeczywistości makroekonomicznej nawet w samej strefie euro, zasadne jest zwrócenie uwagi na warunki konwergencji realnej. Celem badania jest ocena konwergencji Polski i strefy euro z perspektywy kształtowania się udziału wymiany wewnątrzgałęziowej, a także stopnia zbieżności wahań koniunkturalnych tych gospodarek. W pracy wykorzystano ilościowe metody badawcze (analiza statystyczna). Z przeprowadzonych badań wynika, iż udział IIT Polski i strefy euro (mierzony wskaźnikiem Grubela-Lloyda) charakteryzował się trendem rosnącym, co świadczy o nasileniu integracji handlowej. Zahamowanie tego wzrostu nastąpiło jednak pod koniec 2016 r. Rosnącą i względnie wysoką zbieżność wahań koniunkturalnych badanych gospodarek (mierzoną współczynnikiem korelacji rekursywnej) zaobserwowano do końca 2013 r. W późniejszych latach odnotowano spadek, a następnie wahania stopnia tej zbieżności. W tym kontekście należy podkreślić, iż stopień synchronizacji wahań aktywności gospodarczej Polski i strefy euro przez dużą część okresu badawczego był warunkowany specyficznymi, asymetrycznymi wydarzeniami. Wobec uzyskanych wyników badań można stwierdzić, iż Polska charakteryzuje się „umiarkowanym” stopniem konwergencji realnej ze strefą euro, lecz niewskazana jest definitywna i ostateczna ocena badanych zjawisk i odpowiedź na pytanie, czy poziom ten jest wystarczający, aby przyjąć wspólną walutę. Wszelkie dylematy uzasadniają więc potrzebę kontynuacji i rozszerzenia badań w tym obszarze.
PL
Jedną z propozycji badania intensywności zagranicznego handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego przedstawili Glejser i inni (1982). Jest ona konkurencyjna wobec wielu mierników handlu zagranicznego, które nie uwzględniają specjalizacji kraju w imporcie i eksporcie oraz nie odzwierciedlają dostatecznie skutków nierównowagi w obrotach handlowych z zagranicą. Glejser i inni (1982) wykorzystując wariancje wskaźników proeksportowej i proimportowej specjalizacji stworzyli narzędzie, które cechuje się większą odpornością na wymienione mankamenty. Proponowana metoda nie została jednak doposażona w odpowiednie oprzyrzą-dowanie statystyczno-ekonometryczne, co znacznie ogranicza jej praktyczną użyteczność. Celem artykułu jest próba udoskonalenia przedmiotowej metody oraz przetestowanie jej na przykładzie handlu zagranicznego w Polsce.
EN
One of the study proposals of the intensity of the intra-industry trade was presented Glejser et al. (1982). It is competitive with many foreign trade indicators which do not take account of the country specialization in import and export and do not reflect adequately the effects of trade imbalances. On based the variance of the export and import specialization indicators Glejser et al. (1982) created a tool that overcomes these shortcomings. The pro-posed method, however, was not equipped with an appropriate statistical and econometric tools, which greatly limits its practical usefulness. This article attempts to improve the method and test it on the example of foreign trade in Poland.
EN
The aim of the study was to determine the status, structure and intensity of trade in agrofood products after the Polish accession to the European Union, to identify changes resulting from the inclusion of Poland in the area of the Single European Market and the determination of the structure of intra turnover and the competitive position of Polish agro-food products in EU markets EFTA, the CIS and the USA. The paper analyzes the export and import of agro-food industry, points to changes in the dynamics of turnover and calculates indicators of comparative advantage (RCA) and indicators of specialization: B. Balassa (IB) and H.G. Grubela and P.J. Lloyd (IIT).
PL
Artykuł poświęcony jest zbadaniu krótko‑ i średniookresowych efektów w handlu towarowym między krajami Grupy Wyszehradzkiej (V4: Republika Czeska, Węgry, Polska, Słowacja) a Republiką Korei (Koreą Południową) w ramach umowy o wolnym handlu między Unią Europejską a Republiką Korei. W strategii „Trade for All” to porozumienie określono mianem najambitniejszej umowy handlowej kiedykolwiek zawartej i wdrożonej przez UE. Głównym celem analizy jest zidentyfikowanie, porównanie oraz ocena zachodzących zmian w zaawansowaniu technologicznym dwustronnych strumieni eksportu i importu oraz w obrębie struktury handlu wewnątrzgałęziowego. Szerszym kontekstem badań jest ponadto napływ koreańskich inwestycji zagranicznych do krajów V4. Analiza technologicznego zaawansowania oparta jest na podejściu metodologicznym Konferencji Narodów Zjednoczonych ds. Handlu i Rozwoju, podczas gdy intensywność wymiany wewnątrzgałęziowej jest mierzona indeksem Grubela‑Lloyda wraz z określeniem jej kategorii składowych (handlu poziomego i pionowego). Badaniem objęto okres 2001–2015. Nowatorskość opracowania wynika z faktu, że jak dotąd badania nad stosunkami handlowymi między Koreą Południową a krajami V4 nie zostały przeprowadzone w ten sposób. Wnioski sugerują wpływ południowokoreańskich inwestycji bezpośrednich na handel, co znajduje swoje odzwierciedlenie w deficycie handlowym oraz strukturze dwustronnej wymiany w ujęciu jej zaawansowania technologicznego. Inwestycje te mogły mieć także pozytywne skutki dla ewolucji wymiany wewnątrzgałęziowej, zwłaszcza w obrębie przemysłu maszynowego. Polityczna interpretacja wskazuje, że mogą one wzmacniać zagrożenia typowe dla pułapki średniego dochodu, zwłaszcza lukę technologiczną oraz nacisk na niskie koszty produkcji.
EN
This paper investigates selected short- and mid-term effects in trade in goods between the Visegrad countries (V4: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the Slovak Republic) and the Republic of Korea under the framework of the Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and the Republic of Korea. This Agreement is described in the “Trade for All” (2015: 9) strategy as the most ambitious trade deal ever implemented by the EU. The primary purpose of our analysis is to identify, compare, and evaluate the evolution of the technological sophistication of bilateral exports and imports. Another dimension of the paper concentrates on the developments within intra-industry trade. Moreover, these objectives are approached taking into account the context of the South Korean direct investment inflow to the V4. The evaluation of technological sophistication is based on UNCTAD’s methodology, while the intensity of intra-industry trade is measured by the GL-index and identification of its subcategories (horizontal and vertical trade). The analysis covers the timespan 2001–2015. The novelty of the paper lies in the fact that the study of South Korean-V4 trade relations has not so far been carried out from this perspective. Thus this paper investigates interesting phenomena identified in the trade between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and V4 economies. The main findings imply an impact of South Korean direct investments on trade. This is represented by the trade deficit of the V4 with ROK and the structure of bilateral trade in terms of its technological sophistication. South Korean investments might also have had positive consequences for the evolution of IIT, particularly in the machinery sector. The political interpretation indicates that they may strengthen common threats associated with the middle-income trap, particularly the technological gap and the emphasis placed on lower costs of production.
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