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EN
This article describes the problem of using fuzzy logic in the forecasts of variants of the results of implemented investment projects. It also shows the possibility of using calculations with the application of fuzzy triangular numbers L-R in the variants of results: an optimistic result, a pessimistic result and the most probable result (the central result). Moreover, the article draws attention to the possibility of using fuzzy numbers to estimate fuzzy risk of a forecasted financial result of a company. In addition, the article presents how a dividend may be shaped in consideration of multiplicity of variants if dividend policy takes into account dependence on company results as well as implemented investment projects.
ECONOMICS
|
2015
|
vol. 3
|
issue 1
89-97
XX
Efekti investicija se, u zavisnosti od njihove vrste i veličine, različito mogu manifestovati na privredu, zbog čega je potrebno sagledati različite aspekte njihovog vrednovanja. Polazeći od toga da tržište ne može uvijek i pod svim okolnostima pravilno vrednovati sve robe i usluge s gledišta društva, opravdanost s komercijalnog gledišta se može u mnogome razlikovati od opravdanosti s gledišta društva. Osnovno polazište pri tome predstavlja primjena obračunskih umjesto tržišnih cijena, odnosno sagledavanje oportunitetnih koristi i troškova investicionih projekata, budući da su sastavni dio investicije a ne primjenjuju se u najboljoj alternativnoj upotrebi. Polazeći od nedostataka klasičnih finansijskih analiza u identifikaciji i vrednovanju efekata investicionih projekata sa društvenog aspekta, potrebno je afirmisati pristupe koji se u svijetu sve više razvijaju i dobijaju na značaju.
EN
The effects of an investment, depending on their type and size, may manifest differently on the economy, which is why it is necessary to examine various aspects of their evaluation. Starting from the fact that the market cannot always and at all times and circumstances properly evaluate all the goods and services from the society viewpoint, commercial justification may greatly differ from social justification. The main starting point in the process is the application of billing prices instead of market prices, i.e. consideration of opportunity costs and benefits of investment projects, as they are an integral part of the investment and are not applied in the best alternative use. Starting from the shortcomings of conventional financial analyses in the identification and evaluation of the effects of investment projects from a social aspect, it is necessary to promote increasingly popular and relevant approaches.
EN
In recent years, the issue of investment projects has been addressed in the context of discussions on the principles of regional policy and economic convergence, which remain important objectives of cohesion policy implemented and co-financed within the framework of the European Union. This study on the effects of investment projects carried out in provinces as part of cohesion policy uses economic growth models as methodological tools. As a result of the study, the longterm effects of cohesion policy implemented in Poland under the EU’s 2014–2020 Financial Perspective were determined. The obtained results did not confirm the achievement of the goal of equalising GDP levels per working person between the provinces in the long term. The article demonstrates how mathematical models of economic growth can be used in the process of allocating investment projects between provinces. According to the indications of the models, this process will contribute to the achievement of the goal, considering both the polarisation-diffusion paradigm and the compensatory paradigm of regional policy. The study successfully incorporates the mathematical theory of economic growth into the ongoing discussion on the methods and effects of pursuing regional policy.
PL
W ostatnich latach problematyka inwestycji jest podejmowana w kontekście dyskusji nad zasadami polityki regionalnej i konwergencji gospodarczej, które pozostają ważnymi celami polityki spójności realizowanej oraz współfinansowanej w ramach Unii Europejskiej. Narzędziem metodologicznym wykorzystanym w badaniu nad efektami inwestycji wydatkowanych w województwach w ramach polityki spójności były modele wzrostu gospodarczego. W wyniku przeprowadzonego badania określono długookresowe efekty polityki spójności realizowanej w Polsce w perspektywie finansowej 2014–2020. Otrzymane wyniki nie potwierdziły osiągnięcia w długim horyzoncie czasu celu w postaci wyrównywania się pomiędzy województwami poziomów PKB na osobę pracującą. W artykule wskazano sposób wykorzystania matematycznych modeli wzrostu gospodarczego w procesie alokacji pomiędzy województwami inwestycji, które zgodnie ze wskazaniami modeli przyczynią się do osiągnięcia celu z uwzględnieniem paradygmatu zarówno polaryzacyjno-dyfuzyjnego, jak i wyrównawczego polityki regionalnej. W rezultacie możliwe stało się włączenie matematycznej teorii wzrostu gospodarczego do toczącej się dyskusji nad sposobami i efektami prowadzenia polityki regionalnej, której celem zgodnie z przyjętymi w pracy założeniami może być wyższa efektywność ekonomiczna inwestycji lub dążenie do wyrównywania poziomów produkcji.
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