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Can Google Trends affect sentiment of individual investors? The case of the United States

100%
Rutkowska A., Kliber A.
Mathematical Economics
|
2018
|
issue 14(21)
51-70
EN
As the empirical studies show, investor sentiment is a significant factor in financial markets. The large-scale development of the technology has led to widespread access to information in real time (also to individual investors), which in turn has also led to the inflow of Big Data to market analysis. One of the sources of such data is the ability to track the phrases searched for in the web search engines. In our research we verify whether investor sentiment is affected by, among others, a daily Google keyword search called “Google Trends”. We consider measures of US investors’ sentiment calculated from survey studies – the AAII index. We investigate changes of sentiment and its volatility, which can be interpreted as nervousness of the market participants. We estimate a set of GARCH models with explanatory variables in conditional mean and variance. We confirm that negative keyword searches are connected with the decline of the investor confidence. The overall effect of a negative search is stronger than positive. Older searches have a weaker influence on investor sentiment than new ones – no lagged search proved to be significant.
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The influence of investor sentiment on sector indices – the INI index analysis

100%
Rutkowska A.
Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
|
2017
|
issue 482
227-239
EN
In this paper, we examine the influence of investor sentiment on the WSE sector indices. The stock market indices chosen are based on the industry sector, to distinguish the sectors most susceptible and robust to the effects of sentiment. The Polish Investor Sentiment Index (INI) is used as a sentiment measurement. INI is published every week by the Polish Association of Individual Investors based on the opinions of approx. 350 respondents. Individual investors answer the question about their opinion on the stock exchange trend in the next 6 months, whether the trend will be upward, horizontal, or downward. The aim of this study is to understand the impact of investor sentiment on sector indices. The study covers the 5-year period from June 2011 to June 2016. We examine the bivariate relationship in the mean by using the vector autoregression (VAR) model and Granger causality. The results show that INI does not influence the sector indices except for WIG-food and WIG-basic materials. However, the study identifies strong dependencies in the opposite direction.
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Nastrój inwestorów i stopy zwrotu WIG

75%
Sekuła P.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
|
2017
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vol. 51
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issue 5
EN
The article presents the analysis of the relations between the investor sentiment and the WIG returns on the weekly and monthly data in the period of 2011–2016. The study shows a positive, statistically significant relationship between the WIG changes and the investor sentiment index. The results obtained indicate that the WIG is the dominant variable, and the investor sentiment index depends on the WIG changes. Moreover, the Granger causality test suggests that the investor sentiment index is not the Granger cause for the WIG.
PL
W artykule przedstawiono analizę zależności pomiędzy nastrojami inwestorów a stopą zwrotu WIG, na podstawie danych tygodniowych i miesięcznych, w okresie 2011–2016. Badania wykazują dodatni, statystycznie istotny związek między zmianami WIG a indeksem nastrojów inwestorów. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują, że WIG jest dominującą zmienną, a indeks nastrojów inwestorów zależy od zmian WIG. Test przyczynowości Grangera sugeruje ponadto, że indeks nastrojów inwestorów nie jest przyczyną w sensie Grangera dla WIG.
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