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Prognozowanie w okresie wydłużonym z wykorzystaniem krzywej S w odniesieniu do wyników projektu „Quality of Life”

100%
Mateusz Słupiński M.
Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Bankowej we Wrocławiu
|
2013
|
issue 3(35)
165-175
PL
Przedstawione przykładowe parametry mierzalne do roku 2020 przechodzą przez stadium dojrzałości lub osiągania górnego pułapu κ. W celu kontynuowania prognozowania dalszego wzrostu poza rok 2020 istnieje konieczność wprowadzenia monitorowania nowego rozwiązania. Nowe rozwiązania mogą już istnieć lub zostaną stworzone. W przypadku rozwiązań istniejących mogą one jeszcze obecnie być nierozpoznane, niemierzone i znajdować się w okresie początkowego wzrostu czyli y < 10%κ. W poniższym artykule konferencyjnym przedstawiono wprowadzenie do analizy krzywych logistycznych oraz wprowadzenie do wydłużenia prognozy poza pierwszą krzywą logistyczną.
EN
This paper presents an overview of logistic curve study and an overview of forecast extension beyond first logistic curve thanks to utilization of network of contradictions. Selected research results present three curve fittings describing features critical to quality of life. Fittings are assisted with parametrical description. A logistic substitution and a network of contradictions are proposed as a support for further, long-term forecasting research.
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Łączenie metod ilościowych i jakościowych na przykładzie regionalnego foresightu energetycznego

100%
Ropuszyńska-Surma E.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
|
2014
|
issue 4(46)
135-150
EN
Regional and sectorial strategies should take into consideration, inter alia, stakeholders’ needs and potential problems in the future (e.g. lack of energy security). In this situation, there is often necessity to select key technologies for a region or a sector. The problem is what kind of methods are used to select needed technologies and to point out visions, which are linked to these technologies, of region or sector development. The issue is shown in this article basing on the project called ”Energy Development Strategy of Lower Silesia by Using Foresight Methods”. The paper presents the procedure of the selection of theses which are studied by Delphi methods. The results of this research addressed to selected theses are shown briefly. Also there is shown limited usage of technological foresight basing on S-shape curves (logistic curves and Gompert’s method). In connection to these functions there is presented a substitution between conventional technologies of electricity production and renewable energy sources technologies. The results of qualitative methods and Delphi method are compared. Basing on this, the limits of the implementation of qualitative methods as well as the necessity to compare the results of two methods: experts’ one and qualitative one are shown. In other words, the combining of methods is recommended during foresight research.
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