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Longer-Term Demographic Dynamics in South-East Europe: Convergent, Divergent and Delayed Development Paths

100%

Fassmann H., Musil E., Bauer R., Melegh A., Gruber K.

Central and Eastern European Migration Review

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2014

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vol. 3

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issue 2

150-172

XX

This article offers an overview of the longer-term migratory and demographic developments in eight South-East European countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Italy, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia and Slovakia). The main research question aims to analyse the different demographic historical developments and to examine whether convergent or divergent processes are dominant. Over the whole reference period, the population size in these eight South-East European countries (the SEEMIG region) grew from around 100 million people in 1950 to 122 million in 2011. This is surprising, as the public image of the region is linked to decline and backwardness and to being peripheral. However, major differences in the demographic developments of the countries can be observed. Some countries, including Austria, Italy and, with some fluctuations, Slovakia and Slovenia, experienced constant population growth during the entire reference period. All other countries were affected by a decrease in population, as was the case for Hungary in the early 1980s, Bulgaria at the beginning of the 1990s and Serbia and Romania since the start of the new millennium. The fertility trend shows a convergence while the mortality trends (including average life expectancy at birth) prove to be divergent. The net migration pattern seems to follow a migration cycle concept which postulates a general shift from emigration to immigration as a consequence of a declining natural increase on the one hand and a growing demand for new labour on the other. Some countries show trends that do not yet follow this pattern, which might indicate that additional factors and interpretative models should also be taken into account. The long-term distribution of growth and decline in the region is quite diverse and underlines the need for differentiation and specific explanations.

2

Russia: A ‘Hidden’ Migration Transition and a Winding Road towards a Mature Immigration Country?

88%

Brunarska Z., Denisenko M., Brunarska Z., Denisenko M.

Central and Eastern European Migration Review

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2021

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vol. 10

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issue 1

3

Modernising Impacts of Emigration

51%

Okólski M.

Studia Socjologiczne

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2012

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issue 3(206)

49- 79

EN

The paper describes the relationship between migration (with a focus on international migration) and modernisation. In particular, the author discusses the problem of emigration impacts on modernisation processes in a society undergoing significant population outflow. The analysis of these impacts has been carried out from the perspective of longue durée. The author puts forward the concepts of the migration cycle and its close relative, the population cycle. He argues that any modernising society undergoes both of these cycles. On the basis of the very nature of the migration cycle, the author hypothesises that out-migration has a crowding-out effect that is indispensible for the modernisation of society to be completed. The paper presents many arguments supporting this hypothesis, but it does not avoid reflection on its limitations.

PL

W artykule został przedstawiony związek między migracjami (z naciskiem na zagraniczne) a modernizacją. Autor poddał dyskusji zwłaszcza kwestie wpływu emigracji na procesy moder- nizacyjne w społeczeństwie, doświadczającym silnego odpływu ludności za granicę. Analiza tego oddziaływania została przeprowadzona z perspektywy długiego trwania (longue durée). W tym celu autor przedstawił koncepcję cyklu migracyjnego i ściśle z nią związaną koncepcję cyklu ludnościowego i dowiódł, że każde modernizujące się społeczeństwo doświadcza obu cykli. Na tej podstawie sformułował hipotezę, że odpływ ludności powoduje efekt rozgęszczenia, który jest niezbędny do sfinalizowania przemian modernizacyjnych. Artykuł zawiera szereg argumentów na rzecz tej hipotezy ale zarazem nie unika refleksji nad jej ograniczeniami.

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2 Central and Eastern European Migration Review

1 Studia Socjologiczne

1 2021

1 2014

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1 Bauer R.

1 Brunarska Z.

1 Denisenko M.

1 Fassmann H.

1 Gruber K.

1 Melegh A.

1 Musil E.

1 Okólski M.

Longer-Term Demographic Dynamics in South-East Europe: Convergent, Divergent and Delayed Development Paths

Russia: A ‘Hidden’ Migration Transition and a Winding Road towards a Mature Immigration Country?

Modernising Impacts of Emigration