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Wpływ światowych cen ropy naftowej na ceny w Polsce

100%
Baranowski P., Sztaudynger J. J.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
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2014
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issue 2(44)
9-16
EN
The world oil price is an exogenous as well as key component and factor influencing domestic prices (especially transportation). The question is: how the oil price influences producer and consumer prices. We focus on a short- and long-term relationship between the domestic prices and oil price (expressed in Polish zloty). We use Vector Error Correction Models, with cost-based specification, i.e. including additionally wages and euro-zloty exchange rate. The degree of estimated long-term pass-through oil prices to producer and consumer prices is 0,15 and 0,05, respectively. Both producer and consumer prices have comparable size of short-term reaction to an oil price shock, but the producer price reaction is more prolonged.
2
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Oil price and the economic activity in GCC countries: evidence from quantile regression

75%
Zmami M., Ben-Salha O.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2020
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vol. 15
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issue 4
651-673
EN
Research background: The effects of oil price fluctuations on the macroeconomic performance in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries have stimulated considerable research activity. However, the debate is far from being closed. Purpose of the article: This paper revisits the impact of crude oil price on economic activity in the Gulf Cooperation Council oil-exporting countries. The study covers a relatively long period spanning from 1960 to 2018. Methods: The empirical investigation accounts for structural breaks, nonlinearity, and non-normal ?distribution of data. The Kapetanios (2005) structural breaks unit root test?? and ?Saikkonen?Lütkepohl (2000a, b, c) cointegration test with structural shifts are implemented to examine the stationary properties of data and the presence of cointegration between variables, respectively. Moreover, the quantile regression is employed to assess whether the impact of oil price on real GDP differs across different states of the economy. Findings & Value added: Empirical results suggest the absence of long-run cointegrating relationships between oil price and GDP in all countries. The quantile regression reveals that oil price does not affect real GDP in the same way across countries and for different business cycle phases. More specifically, the symmetric quantile regression findings reveal that oil price exerts a positive impact on GDP in all countries and that the effect is higher during the recession than expansion states. The asymmetric quantile regression shows that GDP reacts to positive oil price changes in all countries. However, only the Emirati and Omani GDPs are affected by negative oil price changes.
3

To What Extent are Stock Returns Driven by Mean and Volatility Spillover Effects? – Evidence from Eight European Stock Markets

63%
Alikhanov A.
Review of Economic Perspectives
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2013
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vol. 13
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issue 1
3-29
EN
The paper investigates mean and volatility spillover effects from the U.S and EU stock markets as well as oil price market into national stock markets of eight European countries. The study finds strong indication of volatility spillover effects from the US-global, EU-regional, and the world factor oil towards individual stock markets. While both mean and volatility spillover transmissions from the US are found to be significant, EU mean spillover effects are negligible. To evaluate the magnitude of volatility spillovers, the variance ratios are also computed and the results draw to attention that the individual emerging countries’ stock returns are mostly influenced by the U.S volatility spillovers rather than EU or oil markets. Additionally, examination of only global and regional stock markets spillover transmissions into European stock markets also confirms the dominating presence of the U.S spillover transmissions. Furthermore, I also implement asymmetric tests on stock returns of eight markets. The stock market returns of Hungary, Poland, Russia and the Ukraine are found to respond asymmetrically to negative and positive shocks in the US stock returns. The weak evidence of asymmetric effects with respect to oil market shocks is found only in the case of Russia and the quantified variance ratios indicate that presence of oil market shocks are relatively higher for Russia. Moreover, a model with dummy variable confirms the effect of European Union enlargement on stock returns only for Romania. Finally, a conditional model suggests that the spillover effects are partially explained by instrumental macroeconomic variables, out of which exchange rate fluctuations play the key role in explaining the spillover parameters rather than total trade to GDP ratios in most investigated countries.
4
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Tendencje zmian cen na światowym rynku ropy naftowej po 2000 roku

63%
Socha R., Wdowiński P.
Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics
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2018
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vol. 293
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issue 1
103-135
EN
This paper aims to analyse changes in the oil market during the “third oil price shock” in 2007 and 2008. It is particularly important to investigate the influence of disruptions in oil production (in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries) on crude oil prices and consumption. The authors conduct an empirical investigation of this problem, estimating a vector error correction model and an impulse-response function. Based on the empirical data, we noticed that from 2004 to 2008 the growth in oil demand was not compensated by an appropriate increase in oil production. The results of impulse-response functions show that, with the improvement in global demand, we should rather expect OPEC production to increase. Moreover, this kind of reaction in OPEC is delayed by about four months, which can be explained by the restrictions on OPEC’s spare capacity. This limits the room for a short-term increase in OPEC production. Unexpected demand shocks or price innovations increase the level of both OPEC and non-OPEC production, but the response of OPEC is more significant. These findings may be considered as a point of departure for future analyses of OPEC production adjustments.
PL
Celem artykułu jest przeprowadzenie analizy zmian zachodzących na rynku ropy naftowej w okresie trzeciego szoku cenowego w latach 2007-2008. Szczególnie istotna z punktu widzenia poruszanego problemu badawczego jest odpowiedź na pytanie, jaki wpływ na ceny ropy naftowej i wielkość konsumpcji tego surowca mają zaburzenia w wielkości wydobycia w grupie państw OPEC lub w państwach niestowarzyszonych w kartelu. W części empirycznej artykułu dokonano estymacji parametrów modelu wektorowej korekty błędem oraz analizy funkcji reakcji na impuls. Na podstawie wstępnej analizy danych statystycznych można zauważyć, iż wysokie tempo popytu w latach 2004-2008 nie było kompensowane przez odpowiednią dynamikę wydobycia. Na podstawie analizy funkcji reakcji na impuls można zauważyć, iż zaburzenie światowego popytu na ropę naftową wiąże się z pozytywną reakcją wydobycia państw kartelu, co skłania ku refleksji, na ile brak reakcji w latach 2007–2008 stanowił strategię polityki wydobywczej, a na ile pozostawało to poza decyzjami OPEC. Z drugiej strony pozytywna reakcja podaży OPEC na szok popytowy jest opóźniona o 4 miesiące, co daje podstawy do przypuszczeń, że natychmiastowe, krótkookresowe zwiększanie podaży w tej grupie państw jest ograniczone. Szoki wynikające z nieoczekiwanego wzrostu popytu na surowce lub zaburzeń w równaniu cen prowadzą do wzrostu produkcji w obu grupach państw. W obu przypadkach reakcja OPEC jest silniejsza.
5
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A Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Interactions between European and Indonesian Cocoa Markets during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2011 European Debt Crisis

63%
Mukhlis M., Majid M. S. A., Syahnur S., Musrizal M., Nova N.
Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
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2021
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vol. 24
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issue 3
139-162
PL
Opracowanie przedstawia badanie empiryczne dynamicznych interakcji między europejskim i indonezyjskim rynkiem kakao podczas globalnego kryzysu finansowego w 2008 r. (GFC) i europejskiego kryzysu zadłużenia w 2011 r. (EDC). Badanie zrealizowano wykorzystując podejścia kointegracji i wieloczynnikowej przyczynowości Grangera w oparciu o zestaw szeregów czasowych. Badanie potwierdziło długoterminową równowagę między europejskim i indonezyjskim rynkiem kakao, sugerując istnienie wzajemnej relacji między nimi. Jednak w całym badaniu odnotowywano nieefektywną transmisję korekt cen kakao w Indonezji. Waluta amerykańska stale wpływała na indonezyjskie ceny kakao, podczas gdy rynki kakao były niezależne od wahań światowych cen ropy naftowej. Generalnie w badaniu odnotowano różny poziom szybkości dostosowywania się krótkookresowych nierównowag do długookresowej równowagi na krajowym rynku kakao w czasie kryzysów gospodarczych.
EN
This study empirically explores the dynamic interactions between the European and Indonesian cocoa markets during the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the 2011 European debt crisis (EDC) using a battery of time series approaches of cointegration and multivariate Granger causality. The study documented a long-run equilibrium between the European and Indonesian cocoa markets, implying a reciprocal relationship. However, an inefficient adjustment transmission in the Indonesian cocoa prices was recorded throughout the study. The US currency constantly influenced Indonesian cocoa prices, while cocoa markets were independent of fluctuations in world oil prices. Overall, the study recorded a different level of the speed of adjustment of short-run imbalances to long-run equilibrium in the domestic cocoa market across economic crises.
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