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EN
General political, economic and moral crises began in Hungary in 2006, after the prime minister’s speech about the real state of the Hungarian economy was delivered. Fidesz, the then largest opposition party refused any further cooperation with the government and started to attack the governing socialist‑liberal coalition. After four years of permanent campaign against the socialists, Fidesz won the elections in 2010 and started to rearrange the whole political and social system in Hungary. Parallel to that, the appearance of social movements in Hungary can clearly be understood as a reply to crisis phenomena, whether they are left‑leaning organisations, green‑ecological, critical of globalisation (“globcrit”) or far‑right, fascistoid groups and networks. One part of the green‑ecologial movement was formed into a party and was named as Politics Can Be Different (LMP), but after 2010 other organizations appeared such as Szolidaritás, an organisation established with reference to the Polish example, with a trade union background, Milla (One Million for Press Freedom), 4K (Movement for the Fourth Republic) and HaHa (Students’ Network), the Hungarian Two‑tailed Dog Party (MKKP) and the Hungarian Pirate Party.
PL
Artykuł dotyczy oceny stosowności symulacyjnego modelu protestu J. Daviesa. Autorzy starają się pokazać bliskość modelu J. Daviesa oraz synergiczny paradygmat parametru porządku. Zaproponowana przez autorów modyfikacja modelu J. Daviesa służy ukazaniu rozproszonego formowania się krótkoterminowych działań protestacyjnych. Podkreślono też szczególną rolę aktualnych oczekiwań i przekonań ludności w formowaniu się protestu. W zaprezentowanej modyfikacji modelu J. Daviesa autorzy proponują rozważenie stosunku negatywnych oczekiwań ludności i związanej z nimi politycznej rzeczywistości. Weryfikacją tego modelu stają się polityczne procesy na Ukrainie na przestrzeni ostatnich dwóch dekad. Autorzy podkreślają fundamentalną odpowiedniość między rzutowanymi na przeszłość przewidywaniami zawartymi w modelu a rzeczywistym przebiegiem procesów protestacyjnych na Ukrainie.
EN
The paper assesses suitability of J. Davies’ model for simulation of protest activity. The authors make an attempt to show proximity of J. Davies’ model and synergetic paradigm of the order parameter. The authors’ modification of J. Davies’ model was given to display dissipative formation of short-term protest activity. Special role of current expectations and beliefs of population in formation of a protest was noted. In proposed modification of J. Davies’ model the authors offer to consider ratio of negative expectations and related political reality. The model is verified by materials of Ukrainian political process of the last two decades. In this article, the authors show fundamental consistency between retro-prediction of the model and real course of protest activity processes in Ukraine.
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