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Stylised Facts about Cyclical Fluctuations of Business Survey Data

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Adamowicz E., Walczyk K.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2013
|
vol. 93: Expectations and Forecasting
123-142
EN
The paper discusses cyclical fluctuations of business activity in selected sectors of the Polish economy, with the use of business confidence indicators. We analyse main morphological features of the cyclical fluctuations: phase duration, timing of turning points, amplitudes, intensity and leads/lags of qualitative indicators in reference to GDP, and cross correlations. Four sectors of the economy are analysed: manufacturing, construction, motor transport and retail trade. We make an insight into empirical regularities of cyclical fluctuations, known as stylised facts. We particularly aim to examine the following stylised facts about business cycles in Poland, ie (1) whether manufacturing contributes the highest to a business cycle, (2) construction and transport are leading sectors of the economy, and (3) retail sales stabilise general business activity.
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