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EN
The process of software development has become so dynamic that it nowadays requires more and more supporting tools. An organization which intends to have such tools implemented must take into account its possible future needs. Complex solutions usually offer greater variety of available options and functionalities but are costly to implement. This paper presents some models o IT project management to-gether with the supporting software. Owing to applying the resource management policy at the stage of production and implementation one may assess the risk and identify potential threats. The discussed issues may shed some light on potential dif-ficulties occurring at the particular stages of software production management whereas the conclusions may help people in charge choose the best model, including its implementation strategy. The first model are dedicated tools created from scratch and often preceded by the analysis of the existing solutions and the needs of the company and the customers. The second is to seek from the very beginning multi-function and complex tools for the big or well-developed IT systems providers. This article is to present the models regarding the IT project management (together with the related supporting tools) which are applied in the IT companies involved in providing the foreign customers with the bases of knowledge. On the basis of the experience gained while designing and developing dedicated software (by means of the above-mentioned tools) and its implementation one drew some conclusions concerning e.g., risk assessment; potential threats at every stage of the project lifecycle; improvement of the quality and production time of the software; reduction of the number of errors; improvement of the internal communication within the project team (it is the first step in the development of the design patterns). The patterns should help the managers choose the proper management model and related tools for the implementation and particular project tasks.
EN
The risk-oriented model of control of sanitary-epidemiological welfare level of the educational establishments was adopted because of lots of quality characteristics. Health criteria are multifarious and dynamic during the educational period. To minimize the impact of adverse factors it is necessary to have science-based concepts of education environment of the risk factors. The integrated approach provides the unified technique of an estimation of conditions of educational environment as one of the most significant and informative blocks of the factors of an environment, allows giving more objective quantitative characteristic of the sanitary-and-hygienic parameters which have qualitative-quantitative categories. It allows arranging on one scale not only the characteristics of a state of health, but also the parameters of the environment. The quantity health indicator – an index of «unhealthiness», which most objectively reflects a degree of «loss of health», was used. The index of «unhealthiness» is an expedient for a quantitative estimation of health. The evidence base of influence of educational environment factors to the dynamics of the health indicators was formed. The hygienic diagnostics of sanitary-epidemiological welfare level of the educational establishments was performed. The systematic approach which is used as the integral criteria for qualitative as quantitative characteristics of educational environment and children’s health was used. The science-based model system of risk assessment of the education environment influence on the children’s health was offered. The main risk factors and informative health indicator – an illness index – were identified. This confirms the appropriateness of the address control factors of the educational environment of educational institutions in order to reduce the adverse effects of risks. We have developed a classification system for risk factors of educational establishment to determine the feasibility of carrying out an in-process monitoring for compliance with the educational environment factors, sanitary norms and rules. The risk levels of educational institutions were identified: the risk of sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the educational establishment; the risk of sanitary and hygienic indicators; the risk of the individual criterion signs of forming health indicators.
EN
In this article, based on the results of questionnaire sent to 50 companies with different employment size, events affecting the failures of the ERP system implementation were identified and their risk level as well as additional costs related to preventive actions (reducing the probability or effects of the problem occurrence) were investigated. To evaluate the risk values of chosen ERP system implementation tasks, PMI (Project Management Institute) standard was applied.
EN
The authors are interested in some aspects of a development project entitled “The methodology of risk assessment for the purposes of crisis management system RP (ID 193751)”. The project funded by the National Research and Development Centre under the Competition 3/2012 (security and defense). As part of the project the following items were reviewed and analyzed: materials related to the Government Security Centre, already completed and available products of the project ID 193751, and literature relating to, among other things, crisis management, critical infrastructure, business continuity, security, and threats. The basic emphasis of the article is focused on the resource-critical infrastructure interpretation of the state, whereby the state is perceived as a complex administrative structure in which, on the basis of external and internal interactions of resources, the risk of threats measurement is done.
EN
Purpose - The aim of this study was to use probabilistic graphical models to determine dental caries risk factors in three-year-old children. The analysis was conducted on the basis of the questionnaire data and resulted in building probabilistic graphical models to investigate dependencies among the features gathered in the surveys on dental caries. Materials and Methods - The data available in this analysis came from dental examinations conducted in children and from a questionnaire survey of their parents or guardians. The data represented 255 children aged between 36 and 48 months. Self-administered questionnaires contained 34 questions of socioeconomic and medical nature such as nutritional habits, wealth, or the level of education. The data included also the results of oral examination by a dentist. We applied the Bayesian network modeling to construct a model by learning it from the collected data. The process of Bayesian network model building was assisted by a dental expert. Results - The model allows to identify probabilistic relationships among the variables and to indicate the most significant risk factors of dental caries in three-year-old children. The Bayesian network model analysis illustrates that cleaning teeth and falling asleep with a bottle are the most significant risk factors of dental caries development in three-year-old children, whereas socioeconomic factors have no significant impact on the condition of teeth. Conclusions - Our analysis results suggest that dietary and oral hygiene habits have the most significant impact on the occurrence of dental caries in three-year-olds.
EN
Lead is an environmental contaminant. The majority of epidemiological research on the health effects of lead has been focused on children, because they are more vulnerable to lead than adults. In children, an elevated blood lead (B-Pb) is associated with reduced Intelligence Quotient (IQ) score. This paper summarizes the current opinions on the assessment of the health risk connected with the children’s environmental exposure to lead. The B-Pb level of concern of 100 μg/l proposed by the US Centers of Disease Control in 1991 was for a long time accepted as the guideline value. In the meantime there has been a significant worldwide decrease of B-Pb levels in children and present geometric mean values in the European countries range from 20 to 30 μg/l. The recent analyses of the association of intelligence test scores and B-Pb levels have revealed that the steepest declines in IQ occur at blood levels < 100 μg/l and that no threshold below which lead does not cause neurodevelopmental toxicity can be defended. European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) concluded in 2010, on the basis of results of Benchmark Dose (BMD) analysis, that an increase in B-Pb of 12 μg/l (BMDL₀₁) could decrease the IQ score by one point. It seems that this value can be used as a “unit risk” to calculate the possible decrease of IQ and, consequently, influence of the low-level exposure to lead (< 100 μg/l) on the health and socioeconomic status of the exposed population.
EN
nternal auditing plays an important role in the efficiency and effectiveness of internal control system in organizations. Internal auditing should provide correct information to management about effectiveness of risk management and internal controls including compliance with organizational laws and regulations. At this time, there are different types of internal auditing, which primarily accept and apply procedures such as testing transactions, testing accuracy and reliability of accounting books and financial reports, the accuracy, reliability and timeliness of control reports and testing compliance with legal and regulatory requirements. However, none of these offer an opinion about qualitative aspects of organizational management, especially risk management. Therefore, it is necessary to redefine internal auditing and to determine the new scopes for it in order to ensure from adoption of modern risk management tools, adequ- acy and effectiveness of these tools and also helping organizational units to reduce risks. These changes in focus and attention of internal auditing are possible by revision in attitudes to audit and changing it to risk-based internal auditing. Regarding this matter, the main purpose of this study is to provide a␣comprehensive and practical model for implementing and using risk-based internal auditing in companies and organizations. This model is designed based on theoretical principles presented in the literature and relevant research as well as professional experience of the authors. Also, the designed model has been implemented in one of the large Iranian organizations, which increases the value and applicability of the model.
PL
Project management (PM) involves decision-making processes related to reaching project goals, resources allocation, timelines, intended outputs, outcomes, long-term impacts, etc. Decisions create challenges for those involved in leading and managing projects, such as information overload, time constraints, uncertainty, and biases. Decision-making in PM is especially supported by risk analysis focused on the identification and assessment of factors that could affect (positively or negatively) a successful project delivery. Uncertainty in estimating project risks is considered one of the major challenges in Management Science. The paper draws attention to the root cause of uncertainty in human reasoning in relation to decision-making processes with particular emphasis on risk analysis. A literature review revealed that the area of risk assessment in PM has been dominated by qualitative methods that do not take uncertainty into account. Therefore, the main objective of this paper was to apply the Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), which provides a framework for representing uncertainties by allowing beliefs to not be assigned to a specific subset. Accordingly, the applied research design was employed in this study. The re-search sample included 60 experts that assessed project risks. In order to determine the belief (Bel) and plausibility (Pl) functions, all the evidence was combined using Dempster’s rule of combination, in order to arrive at quantified beliefs. The final results of the study showed that this evidence-based framework for project risk assessment is applicable and easy to use, even for a large number of experts and could support PM practitioners in risk management and decision-making.
EN
A large prison population and high costs of the prison service contribute to rising interest in problems concerning effective correctional interventions and reduction of reoffending. In recent years, efforts aiming at reducing reoffending have resulted in many countries in significant reforms of national probation systems. Professionalization of probation agencies in order to improve their effectiveness has focused on two processes: risk assessment as well as implementation of interventions targeting dynamic risk factors (risk management). In Poland, the requirement to assess the offenders’ risk of reoffending was introduced in 2013 by the order of the Minister of Justice. The purpose of this regulation was to adjust — at least to aminimal extent — Polish probation officers’ activities to model of functioning of probation agencies in the United States, Canada and Western Europe, as well as to recommendations included in the European probation rules. Unlike these countries, the probation service in Poland does not have structured risk assessment tools. The order issued by the Minister of Justice provides for only the classification of supervised offenders into risk groups based on arbitrary, rigid and controversial criteria which has little in common with building the probation service focused on risk management in the meaning of current European standards.
EN
In contemporary penology, efforts have been made in order to integrate knowledge about the criminal penalty developed within various scientific disciplines. One of the complex, multidisciplinary penological problems is the impact of paradigms of punish­ment on the diagnosis of offenders. The development of the concept of the diagnosis of offenders took place during the period of the domination of the positivist paradigm in criminal law and criminology. Currently, the development of the risk paradigm can be noticed. It causes, among others, a resignation from the traditional, clinical method of diagnosing offenders in favor of a risk and needs assessment by means of structured tools. The need for using such tools in the criminal justice system has increasingly been raised in the Polish scientific literature.
EN
The increasing integrity of the European Union member states is more and more regarding the security and civil protection aspects. On the other hand the priority in responsibility for the safety and security is still in the domain of the sovereign states. It means that the individual states of the EU are responsible for designing and managing their own security and civil protection systems. However, the integration processes within the EU trigger a significant need for an increase of common understanding of the individual member states’ philosophies, approaches and systems utilized in the domain of security and civil protection. Only then if we understand how the others work, we are able to assist them in a crisis or disaster. Therefore, it is highly important to share and understand each other’s systems between member states. The article presents the Dutch approach to national risk assessment as well as organizational aspects of internal security system applied in the Netherlands. It also suggest the future challenges which are at the near horizon of the system development.
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EN
The main purpose of the article is to present the role of information in bank management, in the aspect of credit risk accompanying the bank performance. To prepare relevant risk analyses, comprehensive, reliable and up-to-date information is needed. This should be obtained from numerous sources and by means of various techniques. Sources of information can be both internal and external. Any professional information should be up-to-date, accurate, complete, unambiguous, operational and continual – and these requirements apply equally to both internal and external information.
EN
This paper presents research results on the BIH firms’ financial reporting quality, utilizing empirical relation between accounting conservatism, generated in created critical accounting policy choices, and management abilities in estimates and prediction power of domicile private sector accounting. Primary research is conducted based on firms’ financial statements, constructing CAPCBIH (Critical Accounting Policy Choices relevant in B&H) variable that presents particular internal control system and risk assessment; and that influences financial reporting positions in accordance with specific business environment. I argue that firms’ management possesses no relevant capacity to determine risks and true consumption of economic benefits, leading to creation of hidden reserves in inventories and accounts payable; and latent losses for bad debt and assets revaluations. I draw special attention to recent IFRS convergences to US GAAP, especially in harmonizing with FAS 130 Reporting comprehensive income (in revised IAS 1) and FAS 157 Fair value measurement. CAPCBIH variable, resulted in very poor performance, presents considerable lack of recognizing environment specifics. Furthermore, I underline the importance of revised ISAE and re-enforced role of auditors in assessing relevance of management estimates.
EN
Objectives: The present study aimed to assess the risk of cancer due to benzene in the ambient air of gas stations and traffic zones in the north of Tehran. The cancer risk was estimated using the population distribution data for benzene levels and the unit risk for benzene proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). Material and Methods: Sixteen sampling locations were monitored, once every week, during 5 April 2010 to 25 March 2011. Results: The results showed that the mean annual benzene concentration was 14.51±3.17 parts per billion (ppb) for traffic zones and 29.01±1.32 ppb for outside gas stations. The risk calculated was 1026×10⁻⁶ for gas station 27 and 955×10⁻⁶ for gas station 139. Conclusions: According to our results, the annual benzene level in Tehran ambient air is 2 to 20 times higher than the respective value specified in International Standard (1.56 ppb). Moreover, the results showed a notable increase of cancer risks, ranging from 10% to 56%, for the vicinity population close to the gas stations in comparison to the vicinity population in the traffic zones.
EN
Objectives: The contribution deals with a risk assessment in practical applications of the high-energy liquid jet technology from the point of view of the risk identifi cation, estimation and evaluation. Materials and Methods: Differences between three different types of workplaces are highlighted and analysed - the indoor, the outdoor and the research ones. Theoretical analyses are supported by particular application of the method for the risk assessment in the Laboratory of Liquid Jets at the VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava. This laboratory is primarily oriented to research. Nevertheless, the conclusions can be used also for predominantly commercial workplaces. Results: Some new considerations and evaluations concerning health and safety are presented. Conclusions: Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) procedures were applied and their limitations in risk assessment of water jet-based technologies are explained.
EN
In this paper the basic research problems associated with modelling the basic stealth features for a small navy ship at the concept design stage are introduced. Amongst the major stealth features considered are: the modification of the immersed ship hull form by a rapid change of the ship loading condition, and modification of the ship boundary layer by the hull skin cover. The other stealth features of the ship are not presented in this paper as they do not refer to the ship hydromechanics. The research method is based on the navy ship risk assessment and assessment of the ship performance. The risk may be estimated according to a proposed risk model. The risk assessment may be done according to the risk matrix criteria. The ship performance assessment is based on modification of the immersed ship hull form and modification of the ship boundary layer. Some elements of the research method and mathematical model for estimating the ship performance are introduced in the paper. In general, the research is associated with the interdisciplinary investigations and multi-criteria ship design. The problems presented in the paper follow the Ph.D. research conducted at the Faculty of Ocean Engineering and Ship Technology at Gdańsk University of Technology.
EN
Research background: The managers have a key position in process of management risk. The managers are able to implement the risk management process in the companies with an emphasis on preventing the company crises using the appropriate methods and tools for the early identification of the changes if the entrepreneurial environment develops negatively. Does a manager have enough knowledge and awareness about the potential risk sources in company? Purpose of the article: The essence of this article is to assess the sources of the market, economic, financial, operational, HR, security and legal risk depending on the rate of implementing the risk management process in the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Methods: We realized the risk assessment process on the basis of evaluations by 487 man-agers who gave their opinions to selected risks and their sources in the SMEs in Slovakia. Subsequently, we utilized the methods and tools of the mathematical statistics (descriptive statistics, comparison, Z-score for 2 population proportions, Chi-squared test for 5 x 2 contingency table). Findings & Value added: The strongest dependence perceived by the SME-entrepreneurs lies between the development of the tax and insurance burdens as the source of the economic risk and the criterion of the ?level of the risk management in the company?. The overall results of the empirical research underline the significance and importance of dealing with the assessment of the key risks and their sources in the Slovak SMEs. The results having been processed are the basic material for the professional public and other organizations whose effort is to help the companies in an effective implementation of the risk management process in the Slovak enterprises.
EN
Human trafficking is a complex crime and a capital perpetration against human rights and in particular women’s rights. Moreover, it is a threat to inter-/national security and freedom. People affected by trafficking often want to or even have to return to their home countries – and they are entitled to a safe return. The expertise on Risk assessment and the Safe Return and Reintegration of trafficked persons from the perspective of Polish institutions aims to enable public officers of Poland to prevent retrafficking and/or other harms and violations of human rights, in case that trafficked persons decide to return to their countries of origin or to resettle to a third country. For that matter, the paper starts with describing the identification process as the most important step in order to enable any further assistance concerning support-, protection-, safety- and possible legal measures; including the preferably voluntary return of a survivor. Having a clear definition of human trafficking – orientated on the Polish Penal Code – is the basic requirement in order to properly identify (presumed) victims of trafficking. As experience and empiricism show, failure in the identification procedure is the most common reason for repeated trafficking in human beings or other violations of human rights. Therefore, the indicators presented in this chapter serve as an identification-checklist for the officers concerned. The experts responsible of the formal identification then have to act upon any suspicion that may arise. As soon as this is given, a reflection period has to be granted to any presumed victim. The provision of this reflection period represents an indispensable principle in the adequate assistance of trafficked persons and is highlighted at the end of the chapter on identification. In the following, the paper continues with the framework of a safe return, where the measures necessary to successfully carrying out a proper risk analysis and designing security scenarios are introduced. In order to prioritize the trafficked person’s rights, safety and dignity, coordinated action in conducting a safe return between state actors and NGOs, embassies and consulates have to be emphasized. After putting a spotlight on the importance of a human rights based approach in the assistance of trafficked persons, the expertise goes more specifically into the required steps to conduct a systematic risk assessment. Here, the history of the trafficked person, research on additional sources in order to compile all possible facts and the concerted shaping of security scenarios between all involved actors are pointed out. A safe return always has to include a successful reintegration in the country of origin respectively in a third country, where the trafficked persons might need to be resettled. For this reason, the situation for survivors after the return is examined. As part of the monitoring procedure, actors have to assess the success of a safe return including the reintegration experiences of a trafficked person. The respective indicators to ensure a successful reintegration are enlisted at the end of that chapter. Finally, the expertise discusses the specific role of Polish public authorities and deals with their prospects and challenges, before it completes with examples from the practical experiences of Anti-Trafficking NGOs. Exigencies like the cooperation with specialized NGOs as early as possible during the identification phase, the provision of legal residences, the needed interventions concerning free mobility of trafficked persons and the requirements to support departure, migration and entry processes are examined more in-depth in the penultimate chapter. Eventually, the expertise describes specific challenges Polish public authorities have to face and closes with the chapter to a Best Practice and a Worst Case Scenario from Anti-Trafficking NGOs.
EN
Risk assessment is an important task of risk management. It must take various aspects into consideration. For this reason the risk management involves various scientific disciplines: mathematics, psychology, law etc. Every institution must deal with many different kinds of risk. The question is: in order to ensure the continuation of the company, is it important to assess individual risk or to identify and evaluate the entire overall risk to the enterprise. This article aims to present a method of calculating the total organizational risk in relation to the ROI-return on investment (justifying the critical importance of profit [loss] in ensuring the continued operation of the entity).
EN
Objectives To assess the association between night work and 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25OHD) levels, and to evaluate effect of potential risk factors on 25OHD levels. Material and Methods A total of 140 adult Jordanian employees were recruited. Demographic, lifestyle and working patterns data were documented through a well-structured questionnaire. Vitamin D status was assessed by measuring circulating concentrations of 25OHD. Results Mean 25OHD level was 23.8 ng/ml. No significant difference was found in 25OHD levels between the summer and winter (p = 0.46), or between males and females (p = 0.35). The female night workers had significantly lower serum 25OHD levels compared to the female day workers (p = 0.01). No significant difference in serum 25OHD levels was found between the night and day male workers (p = 0.25). The number of night shifts/month was negatively correlated with 25OHD levels in both the males and females (p = 0.01 and p = 0.007, respectively). Age was positively correlated with 25OHD levels in both the males and females (p = 0.02 and p = 0.001, respectively). Body mass index was negatively associated with 25OHD levels in the whole sample (p = 0.03), but not within each gender group (p = 0.21 for the males and p = 0.09 for the females). Smoking had no significant association with 25OHD levels (p = 0.99 for the males and p = 0.22 for the females). Conclusions Our results suggest that women working night shifts are at higher risk of 25OHD deficiency, and, consequently, of other health problems linked to 25OHD deficiency. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2016;29(5):859–870
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