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Cluster analysis of the impact of currency regime type on features of the spread of financial crises

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STRELCHENKO I.

Operations Research and Decisions

2018

vol. 28

issue 2

71-84

The paper presents the results of research on the impact of currency regime type on features of the spread of financial crises. The focus is on constructing a neural network to identify groups of countries exhibiting similar behaviour in the dynamics of the index of flexibility in the effective exchange rate, exchange market pressure and external public debt markets in times of sudden changes in the environment. The alpha-criterion for optimality constructed in this way is based on the use of a concordance coefficient. The result of modelling is a self-organization map with a hidden layer consisting of six clusters. This cluster structure allows us to analyse the relationship between the type of currency regime and the consequences of the global crisis in 2007–2009 for the domestic financial markets of the investigated countries. It is found that the result of the division is significantly influenced by the proximity of administrative boundaries and historically predetermined close trade and economic channels of interaction between economies. The results obtained can be used to formulate directions in the currency policies of developing countries, including Ukraine.

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1 Operations Research and Decisions

1 2018

1 STRELCHENKO I.

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Cluster analysis of the impact of currency regime type on features of the spread of financial crises