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1

Simulation modeLling for predicting hospital admissions and bed utilisation

100%

HAJŁASZ M., MIELCZAREK B.

Operations Research and Decisions

|

2020

|

vol. 30

|

issue 3

5-19

EN

Demographic research of the world population shows that societies are ageing. The ongoing changes in the population structure will require appropriate quantitative and qualitative adjustments in health services to meet the needs of society. Simulation methods turn out to be helpful in these kinds of analyses. In this paper, the authors present a case study on using discrete event simulation (DES) to support decision-making in the field of hospital bed management in the light of demographic changes. The case study was elaborated for one of the Polish district hospitals. A DES model was built to simu-late admissions to two hospital wards: paediatric and geriatric. A series of experiments were carried out as based on real data extracted from the hospital database and forecasted demographic trends elaborated by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (CSO). The influence of demographic changes on hospital admissions in the chosen age-gender cohorts was explored, examining different variants of hospital bed availability. The results of the experiments show that demographic trends significantly influence healthcare admission and bed utilisation. The reduction in the number of admissions to the paediatric ward by about 6% results in a change in average bed utilisation from 57.90% to 54.06%. With about 12% more admissions to the geriatric ward, the change is from 68.88% to 75.59%. Demographic research of the world population shows that societies are ageing. The ongoing changes in the population structure will require appropriate quantitative and qualitative adjustments in health services to meet the needs of society. Simulation methods turn out to be helpful in these kinds of analyses. In this paper, the authors present a case study on using discrete event simulation (DES) to support decision-making in the field of hospital bed management in the light of demographic changes. The case study was elaborated for one of the Polish district hospitals. A DES model was built to simu-late admissions to two hospital wards: paediatric and geriatric. A series of experiments were carried out as based on real data extracted from the hospital database and forecasted demographic trends elaborated by the Central Statistical Office of Poland (CSO). The influence of demographic changes on hospital admissions in the chosen age-gender cohorts was explored, examining different variants of hospital bed availability. The results of the experiments show that demographic trends significantly influence healthcare admission and bed utilisation. The reduction in the number of admissions to the paediatric ward by about 6% results in a change in average bed utilisation from 57.90% to 54.06%. With about 12% more admissions to the geriatric ward, the change is from 68.88% to 75.59%.

2

On planning production and distribution with disrupted supply chains

88%

Szufel P.

Przegląd Statystyczny

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2022

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vol. 69

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issue 2

20-36

EN

This paper presents a model for short-term time-horizon production and distribution planning of a manufacturing company located in the middle of a supply chain. The model focuses on an unbalanced market with broken supply chains. This reflects the state of the current post-COVID-19 economy, which is additionally struggling with even more uncertainty and disruptions due to the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The manufacturer, operating on the post-pandemic and post-war market, on the one hand observes a soaring demand for its products, and on the other faces uncertainty regarding the availability of components (parts) used in the manufacturing process. The goal of the company is to maximise profits despite the uncertain availability of intermediate products. In the short term, the company cannot simply raise prices, as it is bound by long-term contracts with its business partners. The company also has to maintain a good relationship with its customers, i.e. businesses further in the supply chain, by proportionally dividing its insufficient production and trying to match production planning with the observed demand. The post-COVID-19 production-planning problem has been addressed with a robust mixed integer optimisation model along with a dedicated heuristic, which makes it possible to find approximate solutions in a large-scale real-world setting.

3

Theoretical study concept of the genesis of a city with regard to simulation modelling of the long-term development of a transportation network. With illustrations from a Klodzko Land case study (south-western Poland)

63%

Zipser J.

Studia Miejskie

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2018

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vol. 31

25-36

EN

The paper presents a general outline of thoughts concerning a theoretical study concept of examining the genesis of a city. The proposed concept refers to the idea of giving a quantitative foundation for extension of the genesis of a city deeper into the past. In the proposed concept, the process of situating the city should refer to settlement actions much older than the first traces of the urbanization process and should concentrate on manifestations of movement and transportation activities. These activities may be recognizable in the archaeological record. Methodologically, the concept has a basis in the implementation of the ORION simulation modelling procedure with a special emphasis laid on long-term development of a transportation network. The method itself and the simulation procedure are described, and a possible research area is introduced.

PL

Artykuł przedstawia zarys rozważań dotyczących teoretycznej koncepcji badania genezy miasta. Proponowany koncept odnosi się do zamysłu zbadania podstaw ilościowych dla znacznego wydłużenia w przeszłość genezy miasta. Proces powstawania miasta powinien odnosić się do działań osadniczych znacznie starszych niż pierwsze ślady procesu urbanizacyjnego i koncentrować się na przejawach działań związanych z przemieszczaniem i transportem. Działania te mogą być rozpoznane w źródłach archeologicznych. Metodologicznie przedstawiona koncepcja bazuje na aplikacji procedury modelowej ORION ze szczególnym naciskiem położonym na długofalowy rozwój sieci transportowej. W artykule opisana została metoda badawcza wraz z procedurą symulacyjną, a także zaproponowano potencjalny teren badań.

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Simulation modeLling for predicting hospital admissions and bed utilisation

On planning production and distribution with disrupted supply chains

Theoretical study concept of the genesis of a city with regard to simulation modelling of the long-term development of a transportation network. With illustrations from a Klodzko Land case study (south-western Poland)