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1

Miękkie finansowanie jako kluczowy czynnik w powstawaniu bańki cenowej na rynku nieruchomości

100%

Nowakowski K.

Ekonomia XXI Wieku

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2014

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issue 1(1)

151-167

EN

The multiplicity of approaches and perspectives used for the explanation of enormous price increases indicates the complexity of this process. The aim of the article is the explanation of the real estate bubble through the identification of soft budget constraint as the key factor in its formation. For this purpose the soft budget constraint has been defined in the aspect of the real estate bubble on two levels of capital creation. The first one placed in the sphere of real economy is the meeting place of lenders and borrowers looking for the source of financing of the real estate assets. The second placed in the finance sphere is a meeting place of banks and other financial institutions generating the capital on a huge scale. In the article the institutional basis of soft budget constraint has been analyzed from the perspective of two levels of generation of capital by the identification of key factors in connection with enormous price increase. The research has been performed for three countries: Spain, the United States of America and Poland. In the performed analysis there were described the factors of soft budget constraint similar and different for each of the country. The performed research of soft budget constraint led to the following conclusions. In all of the analyzed countries severe credit policy had not a preventing function and was rather an answer for the emerging economic conditions. The soft credit policy was realized for the longer period of time only in the United States and in this country had the most significant impact on the increase of credit action and growth of real estate prices. The analysis of the lending standards shows symptoms of soft budget constraint in the real sphere. In each of the analyzed countries the mortgages were granted even for the period of fifty years, with the zero down payments, many times with the loan to value ratio above 100%. The next factor of soft budget constraint was the introduction of new banking products in the United States and Spain such as interest-only mortgages and adjustable rate mortgages. In the financial sphere the huge in size accelaration of generation of capital was identified in the form of securitization present on an enourmous scale in the United States and on a smaller scale in Spain. This process led to the additional credit action by the elimination of toxic assets from the balance sheets and transfer of a risk which also finally led to real estate price increases. The research of the quality of mortgages portfolios confirmed the existence of the soft budget constraint factors in the period of boom on the real estate market. In each of the examined countries there was an increase of share of nonperforming loans in the value of all mortgages. The highest dynamic of increase of nonperfoming loans was identifed in the United States. In this country the cumulation of several factors of soft budget constraints was observed on each of analyzed levels. This cumulation led to

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The institutional matrices theory as the basis of explanation of real estate bubble.

88%

Nowakowski K.

Managerial Economics

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2013

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vol. 14

113-135

EN

The increase of prices that could not be explained on the basis of fundamentals is still a very complex process. The economic bubbles have occurred over hundreds of years. Multiplicity of markets, geographical spread and variety of items influenced by bubble makes them still poorly understood. Insufficiency of actual structures for understanding and predicting the economic bubble was the reason for explanation based on the ground of new institutional economy. In the article factors creating the real estate bubble are examined using the institutional matrices theory. The research is performed through the analysis of data and identification of factors conductive in formation of enormous price increase in the United States, Spain and Poland. The study confirms that the lack of balanced combination of dominant and complementary matrices institutions leads to the creation of real estate bubbles. Besides, it was confirmed that the combination of dominant Y-matrix with their basic institutions is the necessary condition of the growth beyond the fundamentals. The examined institutions distorting the market growth and turning it into the bubble have been divided into two groups. First, unintended effects of intervention in market mechanism, has been examined by the identification of housing finance organization in the United States and analysis of the effects of their activity, analysis of social housing policy in Spain and Poland, and finally by the analysis of tax and subsidies systems. Second group, wrongly understood full “liberalization” and deregulation of all market processes, has been examined at two levels: creation of debt for the customers and financing banks themselves. Research was performed in this group in the area of bank lending standards, securitization process and capital requirements for banks. The activities of intervention in the market mechanism were against the dominant matrix and were planned for stabilization and stimulation of real estate market. But in fact supports the speculation and blow of the bubble due to the inappropriate design of institutions of complementary matrix. The activities of wrongly understood full „liberalization” were intended for absolute deregulation by elimination of institutions of complementary matrix. Research confirms that liberalization is possible in the healthy economy however it does not mean for sure that market mechanism could work without any institutions.

3

Miękkie ograniczenia budżetowe. Esej wprowadzający do tomu IV Dzieł wybranych

63%

Kornai J.

Zarządzanie Publiczne / Public Governance

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2014

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issue 4(30)

5-30

PL

Autor po raz pierwszy zajął stanowisko na temat miękkich ograniczeń budżetowych w 1976 roku. W ciągu kolejnych czterdziestu lat poczyniono znaczne postępy na drodze do pełniejszego zrozumienia tego zagadnienia. Dlatego autor nie zgadza się na zawężanie zakresu stosowania tego pojęcia do procesu ratowania nierentownych przedsiębiorstw socjalistycznych. Wykazuje, że syndrom miękkich ograniczeń budżetowych może wystąpić w różnych organizacjach i formach w wielu dziedzinach gospodarki oraz wskazuje na różnorodność dostępnych środków, z których finansuje się udzielaną pomoc. Pojedyncze działania ratunkowe nie tworzą syndromu miękkich ograniczeń budżetowych. Powstaje on dopiero wtedy, gdy miękkie ograniczenia budżetowe stają się elementem oczekiwań podmiotów gospodarczych. Szczególną uwagę zwrócono na następstwa tego rodzaju postępowania odpowiednio dla organizacji ratujących oraz ratowanych. W pracy zawarto przegląd doniesień na temat rozprzestrzeniania się omawianego syndromu na różnych etapach funkcjonowania systemów socjalistycznego i kapitalistycznego, a także w różnych rodzajach organizacji. Autor prezentuje własne poglądy w kwestiach normatywnych, proponując zabezpieczenia przed szkodliwym wpływem przedmiotowego syndromu.

EN

The author’s ideas on soft budget constraint (SBC) were first expressed in 1976. Much progress has been made in understanding the problem over the ensuing four decades. The study takes issue with those who confine the concept to the process of bailing out loss-making socialist firms. It shows how the syndrome can appear in various organizations and forms in many spheres of the economy and points to the various means available for financial rescue. Single bailouts do not as such generate the SBC syndrome. It develops where the SBC becomes built into expectations. Special heed is paid to features generated by the syndrome in rescuer and rescue organizations. The study reports on the spread of the syndrome in various periods of the socialist and the capitalist system, in various sectors. The author expresses his views on normative questions and on therapies against the harmful effects, He deals first with actual practice, then places the theory of the SBC in the sphere of ideas and models, showing how it relates to other theoretical trends, including institutional and behavioural economics and theories of moral hazard and inconsistency in time. He shows how far the intellectual apparatus of the SBC has spread in theoretical literature and where it has reached in the process of „canonization” by the economics profession. Finally, he reviews the main research tasks ahead.

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1 Ekonomia XXI Wieku

1 Managerial Economics

1 Zarządzanie Publiczne / Public Governance

2 Nowakowski K.

1 Kornai J.

2 2014

1 2013

Miękkie finansowanie jako kluczowy czynnik w powstawaniu bańki cenowej na rynku nieruchomości

The institutional matrices theory as the basis of explanation of real estate bubble.

Miękkie ograniczenia budżetowe. Esej wprowadzający do tomu IV Dzieł wybranych