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EN
The article is devoted to the issue of the application of econometric concept of cointegration and error correction models (VECM) to study the relationship between futures prices and spot prices. The author attempted to identify the determinants of the use of this methodology with respect to the relationship of spot and futures prices. In case of the prices of futures contracts and their underlying instruments causal modeling is associated with the need to deal with the multiple problems resulting from the specific nature of this dependency. These problems affect both the proper preparation of the data, as well as adaptation of the methods to the nature of the investigated phenomena. The article also points out the possible interpretation of the results of the VECM analysis in the context of the theory related to spot and futures prices linkages.
PL
Inwestycje na rynkach towarowych można podzielić na bezpośrednie i pośrednie. W przypadku inwestycji bezpośrednich najmniej kłopotliwe jest inwestowanie w metale szlachetne, ponieważ nie wymagają szczególnych warunków przechowywania. Do wspomagania decyzji inwestycyjnych na rynkach metali szlachetnych można wykorzystać metody analizy technicznej. Zasady ich stosowania są analogiczne jak w przypadku inwestowania na rynku akcji. Stąd celem niniejszej pracy jest wykorzystanie wybranych wskaźników analizy technicznej do oceny inwestycji na rynkach metali szlachetnych. Materiał empiryczny stanowią ceny spot z rynku londyńskiego, obejmujące okres od stycznia 2005 do maja 2011. Na ich podstawie zostaną wyznaczone średnie ruchome i oscylatory, co pomoże wybrać odpowiednie strategie.
EN
Investments in commodity markets may be divided into direct and indirect ways. In the case of direct ways, investing in precious metals is the least inconvenient as they do not require special storage conditions. In order to support investment decisions in precious metals markets, methods of technical analysis may be used. As technical analysis in commodity markets is no different from that in stock markets, the aim of the paper is to apply some technical analysis indicators to investigate investments in precious metals markets. Empirical data covers London market spot prices for the period January 2005 – May 2011. This is the basis to calculate moving averages and oscillators, which can help to find the right commodity trading strategies.
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