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Oil price shocks and the US economy: What makes the latest oil price episode different?

100%
Gadea M. D., Gomez-Loscos A.
International Economics Letters
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2014
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vol. 3
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issue 2
36-44
EN
This paper distinguishes different periods in the relationship between oil price shocks, economic growth, and inflation for the US economy. Focusing on the latest period, covering mainly the noughties, a change is found in the exogeneity pattern associated with recent oil price episodes. A significant effect of GDP growth on oil price movements is identified, while there is no evidence of any influence of the latter on either GDP growth or inflation found.
2
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SELECTED TECHNIQUES OF DETECTING STRUCTURAL BREAKS IN FINANCIAL VOLATILITY

100%
Stawiarski B.
Finansowy Kwartalnik Internetowy e-Finanse
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2015
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vol. 11
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issue 1
32-43
EN
We investigate several promising algorithms, proposed in literature, devised to detect sudden changes (structural breaks) in the volatility of financial time series. Comparative study of three techniques: ICSS, NPCPM and Cheng’s algorithm is carried out via numerical simulation in the case of simulated T-GARCH models and two real series, namely German and US stock indices. Simulations show that the NPCPM algorithm is superior to ICSS because is not over-sensitive either to heavy tails of market returns or to their serial dependence. Some signals generated by ICSS are falsely classified as structural breaks in volatility, while Cheng’s technique works well only when a single break occurs.
3
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The Cointegrated VAR Model with Deterministic Structural Breaks

100%
Gosińska E., Welfe A.
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics
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2022
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issue 3
4

Primary Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: Evidence from India

86%
Tiwari A.
South East European Journal of Economics and Business
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2011
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vol. 6
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issue 2
99-117
EN
This study examined static and dynamic causal relationships between primary energy consumption, gross domestic product, and CO2 emissions for India during the period 1970-2007. We tested for the presence of unit root and cointegration among the variables by incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks in the data. The causality is examined between test variables using Granger's approach (in VAR framework), and Dolado and Lütkepohl's approach. We find evidence of no cointegration relationship among the test variables in the presence of structural breaks. Further, static analysis shows that primary energy consumption does not granger-cause GDP, whereas GDP granger-causes primary energy consumption. The dynamic analysis shows conflicting results on the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP. Since GDP explains 75.9% of the forecast error variance of primary energy consumption, whereas primary energy consumption explains only 0.96% of the forecast error variance of GDP, we can suggest that India should adopt policies that reduce energy consumption.
5
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Is There A Stable Long-run Relationship Between Unemployment And Productivity? / Czy Istnieje Stabilny Długookresowy Związek Między Bezrobociem A Produktywnością?

72%
Jalles J. T.
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2015
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vol. 18
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issue 2
57-75
EN
This paper assesses whether productivity and unemployment have a stable long-run relationship. We explore a panel of 19 OECD countries between 1970 and 2012 and rely on recently developed time series econometric methods. Our findings suggest that unemployment and productivity are non-stationary in levels and in many individual cases these series are cointegrated, even after accounting for possible structural breaks. For many individual countries the long-run effect seems to be generally positive. There is also evidence of two-way causality, but the stronger directional relationship runs from unemployment to productivity.
PL
Artykuł jest próbą ustalenia czy istnieje stabilny długookresowy związek między produktywnością a bezrobociem, Badania obejmują dane dotyczące 19 państw OECD, pochodzące z lat 1970-2012 i są oparte o najnowsze ekonometryczne metody analizy szeregów czasowych. Wyniki badań wskazują, że poziomy bezrobocia i produktywności cechują się niestacjonarnością a w licznych indywidualnych przypadkach szeregi te są skointegrowane, nawet po uwzględnieniu możliwych załamań strukturalnych. W przypadku wielu indywidualnych państw efekty długoterminowe wydają się być generalnie pozytywne. Istnieją również dowody występowania przyczynowości dwukierunkowej, ale silniejszy ukierunkowany związek zachodzi między bezrobociem a produktywnością.
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