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1

Długość kwestionariusza a precyzja odpowiedzi na pytania ilościowe w badaniach ankietowych

100%
Hardy W.
Ekonomista
|
2015
|
issue 5
707-718
PL
Cechy ankiety, takie jak jej długość, trudność czy jej subiektywnie postrzegana ciekawość, mają bezpośredni wpływ na jakość otrzymanych danych. Autor analizuje związek pomiędzy długością kwestionariusza a precyzją pozyskanych z jego pomocą danych ilościowych, wykorzystując dane ankietowe GUS na temat rozkładu wynagrodzeń w społeczeństwie polskim. Badanie opiera się na naturalnym quasi-eksperymencie, jakim było zwiększenie liczby pytań w kwestionariuszu między 2005 r. i 2006 r. Analizie poddano wpływ tej zmiany na rozrzut deklarowanych przez respondentów dochodów. Wyniki wskazują na istotny negatywny związek pomiędzy długością ankiety i precyzją udzielanych odpowiedzi (pytania przesunięte na dalsze miejsca w ankiecie dają mniej precyzyjne odpowiedzi). Uzyskane wyniki są względnie odporne na oddziaływanie innych czynników.
EN
The features of the questionnaire, such as its length, difficulty, or subjectively perceived curiosity, have a direct effect on the quality of survey data received. The author analyses the relationship between the length of the questionnaire and the precision of quantitative data obtained in a survey, using survey data on wage income distribution in the Polish households, collected by the Central Statistical Office. The research is based on a natural quasi- experiment provided by raising the number of questions asked between 2005 and 2006. The author analyses the impact of this change on the dispersion of incomes declared by the respondents. The results show a negative relationship between the length of the questionnaire and the precision of the responses obtained (questions that have been shifted to further places in the questionnaire yield less precise answers). The results are relatively robust against the impact of other factors.
RU
Такие характеристики анкеты как длина, трудность или субъективно ощущаемая привлекательность, имеют прямое влияние на качество получаемых данных. Автор анализирует связь между длиной анкеты и точностью полученных с ее помощью количественных данных, используя анкетные данные ГСУ на тему расклада заработной платы в польском обществе. Исследование опирается на естественный квазиэксперимент, каковым было увеличение количества во- просов в анкете между 2005 и 2006 гг. Анализировалось влияние изменения анкеты на диапазон декларируемых респондентами доходов. Результаты указывают на существенную отрицательную связь между длиной анкеты и точностью даваемых ответов (вопросы, переставленные на более удаленные места в анкете, дают менее точные ответы). Полученные результаты относительно устойчивы к воздействию других факторов.
2
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DISPERSION OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

100%
Acedański J., Włodarczyk J.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
|
2016
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vol. 11
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issue 4
737-749
EN
Inflation expectations, both their median and dispersion, are of great importance to the effectiveness of monetary policy. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of the global financial crisis on dispersion of inflation expectations in the European Union. Using European Commission’s survey data, we find that in the early phase of the crisis the dispersion dropped rapidly but then, after Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the trend reversed and these fluctuations cannot be explained by movements of inflation rates and other commonly used factors. We also observe that, in the new European Union member states, the initial drop of the dispersion was weaker whereas the subsequent rise was stronger as compared to the old member states.
3
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Estimation of mask effectiveness perception for small domains using multiple data sources

100%
Sen A., Lahiri P.
Statistics in Transition new series
|
2022
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vol. 23
|
issue 1
1-20
EN
Understanding the impacts of pandemics on public health and related societal issues at granular levels is of great interest. COVID-19 is affecting everyone in the globe and mask wearing is one of the few precautions against it. To quantify people's perception of mask effectiveness and to prevent the spread of COVID-19 for small areas, we use Understanding America Study's (UAS) survey data on COVID-19 as our primary data source. Our data analysis shows that direct survey-weighted estimates for small areas could be highly unreliable. In this paper, we develop a synthetic estimation method to estimate proportions of perceived mask effectiveness for small areas using a logistic model that combines information from multiple data sources. We select our working model using an extensive data analysis facilitated by a new variable selection criterion for survey data and benchmarking ratios. We suggest a jackknife method to estimate the variance of our estimator. From our data analysis, it is evident that our proposed synthetic method outperforms the direct survey-weighted estimator with respect to commonly used evaluation measures.
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Wage-setting Behavior in France: Additional Evidence from an Ad-hoc Survey

100%
Montornes J., Sauner-Leroy J.-B.
Journal of Banking and Financial Economics
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2015
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issue 1(3)
5-23
EN
We investigate the wage-setting behavior of French companies using an ad-hoc survey specifically conducted for this study. Our main results are the following. i) Wages are changed infrequently. 75% of firms change their wages once a year. Wage changes occur at regular intervals during the year and are concentrated in January and July. ii) We find a lower degree of downward real wage rigidity and nominal wage rigidity in France compared to the European average. iii) About one third of companies have an internal policy to grant wage increases according to inflation. iv) When companies are faced with adverse shocks, the latter are partially transmitted into prices. Companies also adopt cost-cutting strategies. The wage of newly hired employees plays an important role in this adjustment.
5
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Long-run inflation expectations in the ECB survey of professional forecasters: what do the survey responses tell us?

100%
Oinonen S., Viren M.
Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy
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2020
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vol. 15
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issue 4
675-695
EN
Research background: At the background, there are issues related to policy credibility and policy targets. For these issues, long-term forecasts can provide important information. Of course, long-term forecasts are needed also e.g. for evaluation of real returns. Purpose of the article: This paper tries to find out how informative the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters data on long-term inflation prospects are from the point of view of the overall quality of the survey and on the other hand from the point of view of monetary policy credibility. Methods: The analysis makes use of individual forecaster level quarterly panel data for the period 1999Q1?2018Q4. Conventional panel econometrics tools are used to find out whether forecasts are sensitive to changes in actual inflation and other relevant variables. Findings & Value added: We find some weaknesses considering the size of the survey, the selection of the sample (more precisely the participation to the survey) and the inertial responses of forecasters which suggest that the survey values are not actively updated. Moreover, we find that towards the end of the sample period, the survey values are related to actual inflation and to short-term expectations, which is not consistent with the credibility of the official inflation target. 
6
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How do individual forecasters change their views? An analysis with micro panel data

100%
Paloviita M., Viren M., Bank of Finland, University of Turku
Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
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2013
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vol. 295
EN
This paper scrutinizes the behavior of individual forecasters included in the Consensus Forecast inflation data for the US. More precisely, we try to determine whether individual forecasters deviate systematically from each other. We examine whether the ranking of forecasters is the same over time. The full micro data set includes 74 forecasters over the period 1989M10-2011M3. The results clearly indicate that the forecasters behave quite persistently so that, for instance, the ranking of forecasters does not change over time. Even so, we also find that the survey values imply reasonable values for the hybrid form of the New Keynesian Phillips curve and that forecaster’s disagreement is positively related to the size of forecast errors.
PL
Przeanalizowano zachowanie się poszczególnych ośrodków prognostycznych ujętych w prognozach Consensus Forecast dla inflacji w USA. Starano się określić, czy poszczególne prognozy systematycznie odbiegają od siebie. W szczególności zbadano, czy ranking ośrodków jest taki sam w czasie. Pełny zestaw danych obejmuje 74 prognostyków w okresie 1989M10– 2011M3. Wyniki wyraźnie wskazują, że prognostycy zachowują się bardzo konsekwentnie tak, że na przykład, ranking ośrodków nie zmienia się w czasie. Ponadto pokazano, że prognostycy są zgodni co do hybrydowej postaci neokeynesowskiej krzywej Phillipsa oraz że różnice pomiędzy nimi są dodatnio skorelowane z wielkością błędów prognozy.
7
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Non-response and Weighting Systems in Business Tendency Surveys: Are Expectations Influenced?

88%
Tomczyk E., Kowalczyk B.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2011
|
vol. 86:Business Surveys, Business Cycles. Polish Contribution to the 30th CIRET Conference
101-119
EN
Rationality of economic agents belongs to the basic assumptions of neoclassical economic theory, and for decades it has inspired research on whether expectations are indeed formed rationally. Direct data on expectations are available mainly through business tendency surveys which are subject to various types of non-response problems. Inclination of industrial enterprises to respond may be correlated with values of measured variable, introducing response bias. Response bias may also occur as a result of introducing weighting systems to control variable size of respondents. The two key properties of rational expectations, on which the majority of empirical analyses of survey data are focused, are unbiasedness and orthogonality. We analyze several sample balance statistics and expectations series based on quantified survey data, taking into consideration issues of non-response and weighting schemes. Alternative definitions of expectations series aim to account for: 1) influence of arbitrary assumptions concerning weighting of individual data, 2) changing sample structure that results from non-response, 3) response rates varying with degree of optimism / pessimism of respondents. Results of our analysis indicate that expectations concerning relative changes in production are unbiased but not efficient with respect to freely available information, namely, observed relative changes in production (lagged three months) and expectations balance (lagged two months). This result holds for a range of weighting schemes and non-response issues analyzed, including changes introduced to sample structure by non-response, and increased inclination of “optimists” and “pessimists” to supply answers in the business tendency survey, as long as their shares remain constant in time.
8
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Dynamics of survey responses before and during the pandemic: entropy and dissimilarity measures applied to business tendency survey data

88%
Tomczyk E.
Statistics in Transition new series
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2023
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vol. 24
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issue 2
185-199
EN
This article is set within the framework of studies focusing on the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on the dynamics of economic activity. For the purposes of the analysis of the expectations expressed in business tendency surveys, the paper aims to verify whether the pandemic of 2020-2022 can be seen as just another contraction phase. Entropy and dissimilarity measures are employed to study the characteristics of the expectations and assessments expressed in the business tendency survey of Polish manufacturing companies. The empirical results show that the dynamics of the manufacturing sector data, particularly as far as general economic conditions are concerned, set the pandemic period apart. The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic expressed in business tendency surveys tend to be unfavourable, but the statistical properties or the degree of the concentration of respondents’ answers do not correspond closely either to the expansion or contraction phases of the business cycle.
9
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Rationality of expectations and data vintage: evidence from business tendency surveys

88%
Tomczyk E.
Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
|
2015
|
issue 4 (50)
184-195
EN
In this paper, the results of the quantification procedures and the properties of expectations series obtained for two data vintages are compared. The volume index of production sold in manufacturing is defined for end-of-sample and real time data, and evaluated against expectations expressed in business tendency surveys. Empirical analysis shows that (1) there are no statistically significant differences between the quantification results obtained on the basis of real time and end-of-sample data, and (2) the results of unbiasedness and orthogonality tests are not influenced by data vintage. Therefore, for the purposes of analyzing the properties of expectations expressed in the business tendency survey, researchers can use easily available end-of-sample data instead of custom-designed and individually compiled real time databases. Also, (3) expectations series are not unbiased or efficient forecasts of changes in production, regardless of data vintage.
10
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A Bayesian Small Area Model with Dirichlet Processes on the Responses

75%
Yin J., Nandram B.
Statistics in Transition new series
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2020
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vol. 21
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issue 3
1-19
EN
Typically survey data have responses with gaps, outliers and ties, and the distributions of the responses might be skewed. Usually, in small area estimation, predictive inference is done using a two-stage Bayesian model with normality at both levels (responses and area means). This is the Scott-Smith (S-S) model and it may not be robust against these features. Another model that can be used to provide a more robust structure is the two-stage Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) model, which has independent normal distributions on the responses and a single Dirichlet process on the area means. However, this model does not accommodate gaps, outliers and ties in the survey data directly. Because this DPM model has a normal distribution on the responses, it is unlikely to be realized in practice, and this is the problem we tackle in this paper. Therefore, we propose a two-stage non-parametric Bayesian model with several independent Dirichlet processes at the first stage that represents the data, thereby accommodating some of the difficulties with survey data and permitting a more robust predictive inference. This model has a Gaussian (normal) distribution on the area means, and so we call it the DPG model. Therefore, the DPM model and the DPG model are essentially the opposite of each other and they are both different from the S-S model. Among the three models, the DPG model gives us the best head-start to accommodate the features of the survey data. For Bayesian predictive inference, we need to integrate two data sets, one with the responses and other with area sizes. An application on body mass index, which is integrated with census data, and a simulation study are used to compare the three models (S-S, DPM, DPG); we show that the DPG model might be preferred.
11

Mobile Carrier Selection In A Post-Conflict Environment – The Primacy Of Ethnicity Over Conventional Network Effects

63%
Zaimović T.
South East European Journal of Economics and Business
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2015
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vol. 10
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issue 2
55-68
EN
In this paper we analyze determinants which affect the selection of mobile carriers in a post-conflict environment - Bosnia and Herzegovina. We apply relevant probability modelling to test perceptions of individual respondents on different network effects obtained through a targeted representative survey. Furthermore, we explore whether some non-traditional influences might affect costumers, focusing on the role of demographic characteristics. Our results confirm that conventional network effects have a role in carrier selection, although they are different across carriers. However, we identify that the ethnicity of respondents overwhelms the traditional network effects by having the highest magnitude in the model. Our findings show that the “ethnic affiliation” of mobile carriers, attributed by the users, remains a persistent factor in attracting and keeping telecommunication costumers in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
12
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Zróżnicowanie odpowiedzi respondentów testu koniunktury w świetle miar entropii

63%
Tomczyk E.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2012
|
vol. 90: Badania koniunktury - zwierciadło gospodarki. Część I
229-255
PL
Opracowanie prezentuje wyniki zastosowania empirycznej miary entropii rozkładu prawdopodobieństwa w celu oceny zawartości informacyjnej danych pochodzących z testu koniunktury Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH. Miary entropii wyznaczane są dla realizacji i oczekiwań wyrażanych w teście koniunktury, dla wszystkich pytań kwestionariusza kierowanego do przedsiębiorstw przemysłowych, w podziale na sektory własnościowe, klasy wielkości oraz sektor działalności wg klasyfikacji PKD. Z przeprowadzonej analizy empirycznej wynika, że zastosowanie miar entropii statystycznej pozwala zróżnicować odpowiedzi respondentów w przekroju badanych zmiennych ekonomicznych (pytań testu koniunktury) oraz wielkości i sektora działalności przedsiębiorstwa. Szczególnie wysoka niepewność związana jest z pytaniami o wielkość produkcji, portfel zamówień ogółem i zamówień eksportowych, a najmniejsza – z pytaniem o ceny. Przedsiębiorstwa małe cechuje szczególnie wysoka niepewność związana z prognozowaniem i oceną bieżącej sytuacji finansowej,a przedsiębiorstwa duże – wysoka zmienność entropii, odzwierciedlająca znaczące wahania rozkładu odpowiedzi z miesiąca na miesiąc.
EN
This paper presents results of application of statistical entropy to evaluate information content of business tendency surveys administered by the Research Institute for Economic Development, Warsaw School of Economics. Measures of entropy, corresponding to changes observed and predicted by the survey respondents, are calculated for all questions included in the monthly industrial survey, taking into account ownership structure, size, and industrial sector in which an enterprise operates. Empirical results lead to conclusion that measures of statistical entropy allow to differentiate responses of industrial enterprises from the point of view of economic variables included in the questionnaire, size and industrial sector. Questions concerning size of production and number of domestic and export orders are associated with the highest uncertainty, and those pertaining to prices – with the lowest uncertainty. High uncertainty of forecasting and evaluating current financial situation is typical for small enterprises; variable entropy, reflecting significant changes in month-to-month distribution of survey answers, is typical for large firms.
13
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Bayesowskie uśrednianie klasycznych oszacowań w prognozowaniu wskaźników makroekonomicznych z użyciem danych z testów koniunktury

63%
Białowolski P., Kuszewski T., Witkowski B.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2013
|
vol. 91: Badania koniunktury - zwierciadło gospodarki. Część II
121-144
PL
W niniejszej pracy przedstawiono kolejną wersję modelu dla prognozowania podstawowych wskaźników makroekonomicznych z wykorzystaniem danych z testów koniunktury. W pracach Białowolskiego, Kuszewskiego i Witkowskiego (2010a, 2010b, 2011, 2012a, 2012b) rozwijano metodykę budowy modeli dla prognozowania tempa zmian produktu krajowego brutto, stopy bezrobocia i wskaźnika cen towarów konsumpcyjnych. W zbiorze regresorów tych modeli, oprócz opóźnionych w czasie zmiennych endogenicznych, uwzględnia się wyłącznie wyniki różnych testów koniunktury. Badanie dotyczy specyfikacji modelu prognostycznego metodą bayesowskiego uśredniania klasycznych oszacowań (Bayesian averaging of classical estimates, BACE). Przyjęte rozwiązanie umożliwia automatyzację proces doboru postaci modelu. W kolejnym etapie postępowania jest rozważany wpływ sezonowości deterministycznej i stochastycznej szeregów czasowych na wynik procesu prognozowania. Zaproponowano intuicyjną procedurę uwzględniania obu rodzajów sezonowości w procesie prognozowania. Po zakończeniu procesu estymacji i doboru modeli weryfikowano ich możliwości prognostyczne.
EN
This paper presents another version of model designed to forecast main macroeconomic indicators with the use of economic survey data. In previous papers (Białowolski, Kuszewski, Witkowski, 2010a, 2010b, 2011, 2012a, 2012b) methods for developing models used for forecasting GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and CPI were proposed. The set of regressors in those models included only lagged dependent variables and indices based on various survey data. In this paper the specification of the forecasting model is selected with the use of Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE). This algorithm enables an automatic process of selection of functional form of the model. Next the influence of deterministic and stochastic seasonality in time series on forecasting process is concerned. An intuitive procedure of applying and selecting among both types of seasonality in the forecasting process is discussed. Afterwards their forecasting capabilities are considered.
14
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Quantification of expectations for general economic situation on the basis of industrial production index with data revisions

63%
Tomczyk E.
Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
|
2015
|
vol. 97: Economic cycles and uncertainty
95-106
EN
Use of appropriate data vintages and taking data revisions into account have only recently became a staple of applied econometric analysis. In this paper, the topic of data vintage in regression quantification procedures is readdressed for survey data on general economic situation. From empirical analysis it follows that quantification of survey data on general economic situation on the basis of industrial production index does not present a significant improvement over the use of response balance. Additionally, results obtained for real-time and end-of-sample data are very similar and do not suggest superiority of any of these two data vintages as far as quantification of survey data on general economic situation is concerned
15
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Validation of CES-D8 among Czech university students during COVID-19 pandemic

51%
Klusáček J., Kudrnáčová M., Soukup P.
Československá psychologie (Czechoslovak Psychology)
|
2022
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vol. 66
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issue 4
398-415
EN
Objectives. Due to the rise of depressive symptomatology especially among vulnerable populations such as young adults during the COVID-19 outbreak, a reliable measuring tool is needed. Because of the lack of such studies, the authors decided to validate the 8-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D 8) among Czech university students capturing the beginning of lockdown experience. Statistical analyses. Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted and structural equation modelling with diagonally weighted least squares estimation using lavaan was employed. Different hypotheses about the dimensionality of the CES-D 8 scale were tested. The authors assessed the measurement equivalence of the CES-D 8 scale according to gender using multigroup confirmatory factor analysis. The effect of socio-demographic and COVID-19 issues variables on depression was examined. Results. One dimensional model with correlated errors showed sufficient validity and therefore, the best fit. Multigroup confirmatory factor analysis results revealed that the factor structure is invariant across gender. Women and those who reported financial distress and academic stress showed a higher level of depressive symptomatology. On the other hand, relationships proved to have a protective effect. Limitations. The sample came from an online survey, respondents were self-selected. There was a gender imbalance in the sample that cannot be explained by a higher number of women in the Czech university environment. Conclusions. The CES-D 8 proved to be a useful instrument for measuring depressed mood that opens further possibilities for depression research in the university environment and during pandemic situations.
CS
Cíle. Vzhledem k nárůstu depresivní sympto-matologie během pandemie covid-19 zejména u zranitelných skupin, jako jsou mladí dospělí, narostla potřebnost spolehlivého nástroje na mě-ření depresivity. Z důvodu chybějící validizace se autoři rozhodli ověřit osmipoložkovou škálu Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D 8) u českých vysokoškolských studentů v době samého počátku pandemie.Statistické analýzy. Byla provedena konfir-mační faktorová analýza za použití struktur-ního modelování metodou DWLS (diagonally weighted least squares) pomocí balíku laavan. Byly testovány různé hypotézy o dimenziona-litě škály CES-D 8. Pomocí MCFA (multigroup confirmatory factor analysis) autoři posuzovali ekvivalenci měření škály CES-D 8 podle po-hlaví. Byl zkoumán vliv sociodemografických proměnných a proměnných týkajících se pro-blematiky covid-19 na depresivní symptoma-tologii.Výsledky. Jednodimenzionální model s korelo-vanými reziduálními rozptyly u dvou položek prokázal dostatečnou validitu a nejlépe odpoví-dal datům. Výsledky MCFA ukázaly, že faktoro-vá struktura zvoleného modelu byla invariantní vzhledem k pohlaví. Ženy a osoby, které byly ve finanční nouzi nebo prožívaly zvýšený stres ze studia, vykazovaly vyšší úroveň depresivní symptomatologie. Naopak partnerský vztah se ukázal mít protektivní efekt.Limity práce. Vzorek pochází z online průzku-mu, respondenti byli vybráni samovýběrem. Nadreprezentaci žen-studentek v datech nelze zdůvodnit vyšším podílem žen na českých uni-verzitách.Závěr. CES-D 8 se ukázal být užitečným nástro-jem pro měření depresivity, jenž otevírá další možnosti pro výzkum deprese v univerzitním prostředí a během pandemických situací.
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