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Stock recommendations – an analysis of usefulness

100%
Gadomska O., Izbrandt M., Włosik K.
FINANSE Czasopismo Komitetu Nauk o Finansach PAN
|
2017
|
issue 1(10)
355-371
EN
This article presents the results of an assessment of the reliability and thus usefulness of the recommendations concerning stocks listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. In order to meet this goal, the authors analysed thoroughly a data set consisting of nearly 18,000 recommendations, issued from 2000 to the end of June 2015 by 82 analytical firms. The research was supported by an evaluation of the accuracy of target prices. The results obtained were used to assess the quality of the recommendations, and to make an attempt at ranking financial institutions on that basis.
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Target price accuracy and the information content of stock recommendations on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

100%
Brycz B., Włodarczyk K.
Nauki o Finansach
|
2017
|
issue 4(33)
35-50
EN
This paper examines target price accuracy conditional on whether the analyst’s report contains a precise valuation model with underlying assumptions, as well as investigates whether target price accuracy is related to the forecast accuracy of the variables used as inputs in the valuation models. The study is conducted based on the analysts’ stock recommendations issued in 2012 for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. We find that approximately 67% of analysts’ price targets are achieved within a 12-month period following the release of a report. Only in the case of positive recommendations we can observe that analysts who provide precise valuation model within their reports issue significantly more accurate target prices. We also find that target price forecast error is, on average, lower for reports with more accurate forecasts of such variables used as inputs in the valuation models as revenue, EBIT and net profit but the results are not always statistically significant.
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