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EN
Georgia and the United States play in the international area complete different roles. Georgia is a small Caucasian country with limited potential, which could not rather play a crucial role in the foreign policy of the United States – the global actor with interests all over the world. Indeed, this situation took place in 90s. However, the beginning of 21st century and assuming the office of president by George W. Bush changed the position of this country and Georgia started to become more and more important in America foreign policy. The situation shifted when Barack Obama became a president in 2009. Since that time Georgia’s position in American foreign policy started to decrease. The last crisis, which happened in Ukraine and the worsening in relations between the United States and Russia may change the significance of Georgia. The main thesis of this article claims that the role and position of Georgia depend on changing interests of the United States in South Caucasus and Central Asia regions.
EN
The South Caucasus consists of three states – Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The region is a natural corridor from the East to the West, from Asia to Europe, and from the North to the South, from Russia to the Middle East. This location is the main potential of the region, which lies in the possibility to create routes for the transmission of products, and the most important – energy resources. The aim of the article is to analyze China’s strategy towards the South Caucasus, including the New Silk Road project. Because of the location of the region, the South Caucasus has been the subject of competition, but also of cooperation of many geopolitical ‘players’ – such as the United States, Russia, the European Union, and also China. The main tool of Chinese foreign policy towards not only the South Caucasus, but also in global dimension, has become the New Silk Road. This concept established towards the South Caucasus states, uses the ‘cluster approach’, which means that China seeks to develop relations with all the countries in the region in a parallel way, not to establish any different ways of cooperation with each of the South Caucasus state, like other global powers do.
PL
Kategoria ryzyka międzynarodowego z perspektywy realizmu strukturalnego może być zdefiniowana jako możliwość wystąpienia nagłej i nieoczekiwanej zmiany o negatywnych konsekwencjach. Celem artykułu jest analiza i wskazanie czynników ryzyka międzynarodowego obecnych w regionie Morza Kaspijskiego, który w kontekście syntezy wielu zmiennych o charakterze geostrategicznym wydaje się być podatny na występowanie potencjalnych zagrożeń. W badaniach zastosowano metodę analizy narracji strategicznych, która pozwoliła na wyodrębnienie najważniejszych czynników ryzyka w kontekście polityki mocarstw globalnych i regionalnych: 1) czynniki polityczne i strategia międzynarodowa; 2) wydobycie surowców energetycznych i geopolityka rurociągów; 3) zamrożone konflikty etniczne i terytorialne; 4) czynniki ekonomiczne; oraz 5) czynniki militarne. Wyniki wskazują, że dla większości graczy brak stabilizacji jest korzystny i nie dążą oni do rozwiązania spornych kwestii za wszelką cenę.
EN
From the perspective of structural realism, the category of international risk can be defined as a possibility of a sudden and unexpected change which may lead to negative outcomes. The aim of the article is to analyze and show international risk factors present in the Caspian Sea region. In the context of various variables of geostrategic character, the region seems prone to potential threats. The research applied the method of the analysis of strategic narratives, which made it possible to distinguish the most important risk factors in the context of the policy followed by global and regional superpowers: 1) political factors and international strategy; 2) extracting energy resources and the geopolitics of pipelines; 3) frozen territorial and ethnic conflicts; 4) economic factors; 5) military factors. The results show that for the majority of players the lack of stability is beneficial and they do not strive to solve the contentious issues at all costs.
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