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Wykorzystanie metod wielowymiarowych w określeniu pozycji konkurencyjnej gminy na przykładzie województwa lubelskiego

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Adamowicz M., Janulewicz P.

Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

2012

vol. 13

issue 1

17-28

Artykuł prezentuje wyniki badań konkurencyjności gmin województwa lubelskiego przy wykorzystaniu metod wielowymiarowych. W pracy wykorzystano dwie metody: wzorca rozwoju Hellwiga oraz analizę skupień Warda. Badania wykazały przydatność tych metod w strategicznym zarządzaniu gminą. Metoda Wzorcowa Hellwiga pozwala na dokonanie klasyfikacji gmin pod względem konkurencyjności, a metoda analizy skupień Warda okazała się pomocna do klasyfikacji gmin według podobieństwa względem przyjętych zmiennych.

Streszczenie (jęz. angielski) - The paper presents an attempt to use both quantitative and qualitative veriables to analyze complex phenomena. First part of the paper focuses some normalisation methods that often occur in empirical works regarding their characteristics. Special attention concerns zero unitarization method due its adequacy in normalising both quantitative and qualitative veriables. The latter part of the paper presents the metod of quantification and normalization chosen qualitative variables. The whole procedure of normalization, construction of synthetic variable and ranking is illustrated by empirical example. Results of research on the competitiveness of communes in Lubelskie voivodeship consented with the use of multi dimensional methods are presented in the article. Two methods: Hellwig development pattern and Ward aggregation analysis were used in the work. The Hellwig pattern method enable the classification of communes according the level of competitiveness while Ward aggregation analysis is helpful for classification of communes according variables used in research Results of research on the competitiveness of communes in Lubelskie voivodeship consented with the use of multi dimensional methods are presented in the article. Two methods: Hellwig development pattern and Ward aggregation analysis were used in the work. The Hellwig pattern method enable the classification of communes according the level of competitiveness while Ward aggregation analysis is helpful for classification of communes according variables used in research The aim of the study was to show the analogy in the changes in the structure of household expenses in the chosen EU countries and Poland between1988 and 2009. The direction and pace of the changes in the budgets of Polish households can be predicted by using the principle of analogy. Classification of the objects has been carried out based on the modified kmeans method. Three classes of similarities have been distinguished. The structure of Polish households budgets from 2004 – 2008 has turned out the most similar to the structure of the expenses of Portuguese households from 1988 – 2005. In this work we analyzed the changes of the structure of value of agriculture products’ exports in Poland during 1980 – 210 in comparison to other EU countries. In this comparative analysis we chose those EU countries whose largest fraction of exports is constituted by agriculture products: Germany, France, Great Britain, Netherlands, Spain and Italy. To study the changes of the structure of export of agriculture products during those 31 years we used multidimensional analysis methods: Gini index and GCCA – Grade Correspondence Cluster Analysis. To visualize the differentiation of structures of export of agriculture products we used overrepresentation maps (prepared in GradeStat). Analysis was based on 9 groups of agriculture products in million USD: live animals (S2-00), meat and preparations (S2-01), dairy products and birds’ eggs (S2-02), Fish, crustacean and molluscs, and preparations thereof (S2-03), cereals and cereal preparations (S2-04), vegetables and fruit (S2-05), suger, suger preparations and honey (S2-06), coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures thereof (S2-07), feeding stuff for animals (not including unmilled cereals (S2-08), miscellaneous edible products and preparations (S2-09). The completed studies have shown a large differentiation of the structure of export of agriculture products in all researched countries. However, the largest differentiation was present in Poland. A significantly high dynamic of growth was observed within three groups of products: dairy products and birds’ eggs (S2-02), Fish, crustacean and molluscs, and preparations thereof (S2-03), vegetables and fruit (S2-05). The participation of those groups in the country’s export has been steadily growing. On the other hand, the participation of until now standard groups of agriculture products (unprocessed: live animals (S2-00) and meat and preparations (S2-01)) has been decreasing. In this work we analyzed the changes of the structure of value of agriculture products’ exports in Poland during 1980 – 210 in comparison to other EU countries. In this comparative analysis we chose those EU countries whose largest fraction of exports is constituted by agriculture products: Germany, France, Great Britain, Netherlands, Spain and Italy. To study the changes of the structure of export of agriculture products during those 31 years we used multidimensional analysis methods: Gini index and GCCA – Grade Correspondence Cluster Analysis. To visualize the differentiation of structures of export of agriculture products we used overrepresentation maps (prepared in GradeStat). Analysis was based on 9 groups of agriculture products in million USD: live animals (S2-00), meat and preparations (S2-01), dairy products and birds’ eggs (S2-02), Fish, crustacean and molluscs, and preparations thereof (S2-03), cereals and cereal preparations (S2-04), vegetables and fruit (S2-05), suger, suger preparations and honey (S2-06), coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures thereof (S2-07), feeding stuff for animals (not including unmilled cereals (S2-08), miscellaneous edible products and preparations (S2-09). The completed studies have shown a large differentiation of the structure of export of agriculture products in all researched countries. However, the largest differentiation was present in Poland. A significantly high dynamic of growth was observed within three groups of products: dairy products and birds’ eggs (S2-02), Fish, crustacean and molluscs, and preparations thereof (S2-03), vegetables and fruit (S2-05). The participation of those groups in the country’s export has been steadily growing. On the other hand, the participation of until now standard groups of agriculture products (unprocessed: live animals (S2-00) and meat and preparations (S2-01)) has been decreasing. In this work we analyzed the changes of the structure of value of agriculture products’ exports in Poland during 1980 – 210 in comparison to other EU countries. In this comparative analysis we chose those EU countries whose largest fraction of exports is constituted by agriculture products: Germany, France, Great Britain, Netherlands, Spain and Italy. To study the changes of the structure of export of agriculture products during those 31 years we used multidimensional analysis methods: Gini index and GCCA – Grade Correspondence Cluster Analysis. To visualize the differentiation of structures of export of agriculture products we used overrepresentation maps (prepared in GradeStat). Analysis was based on 9 groups of agriculture products in million USD: live animals (S2-00), meat and preparations (S2-01), dairy products and birds’ eggs (S2-02), Fish, crustacean and molluscs, and preparations thereof (S2-03), cereals and cereal preparations (S2-04), vegetables and fruit (S2-05), suger, suger preparations and honey (S2-06), coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures thereof (S2-07), feeding stuff for animals (not including unmilled cereals (S2-08), miscellaneous edible products and preparations (S2-09). The completed studies have shown a large differentiation of the structure of export of agriculture products in all researched countries. However, the largest differentiation was present in Poland. A significantly high dynamic of growth was observed within three groups of products: dairy products and birds’ eggs (S2-02), Fish, crustacean and molluscs, and preparations thereof (S2-03), vegetables and fruit (S2-05). The participation of those groups in the country’s export has been steadily growing. On the other hand, the participation of until now standard groups of agriculture products (unprocessed: live animals (S2-00) and meat and preparations (S2-01)) has been decreasing. In this work we analyzed the changes of the structure of value of agriculture products’ exports in Poland during 1980 – 210 in comparison to other EU countries. In this comparative analysis we chose those EU countries whose largest fraction of exports is constituted by agriculture products: Germany, France, Great Britain, Netherlands, Spain and Italy. To study the changes of the structure of export of agriculture products during those 31 years we used multidimensional analysis methods: Gini index and GCCA – Grade Correspondence Cluster Analysis. To visualize the differentiation of structures of export of agriculture products we used overrepresentation maps (prepared in GradeStat). Analysis was based on 9 groups of agriculture products in million USD: live animals (S2-00), meat and preparations (S2-01), dairy products and birds’ eggs (S2-02), Fish, crustacean and molluscs, and preparations thereof (S2-03), cereals and cereal preparations (S2-04), vegetables and fruit (S2-05), suger, suger preparations and honey (S2-06), coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures thereof (S2-07), feeding stuff for animals (not including unmilled cereals (S2-08), miscellaneous edible products and preparations (S2-09). The completed studies have shown a large differentiation of the structure of export of agriculture products in all researched countries. However, the largest differentiation was present in Poland. A significantly high dynamic of growth was observed within three groups of products: dairy products and birds’ eggs (S2-02), Fish, crustacean and molluscs, and preparations thereof (S2-03), vegetables and fruit (S2-05). The participation of those groups in the country’s export has been steadily growing. On the other hand, the participation of until now standard groups of agriculture products (unprocessed: live animals (S2-00) and meat and preparations (S2-01)) has been decreasing. The paper presents an investigation within the subject of fuzzy methodology concerning some phenomena, which is the consequence of their fuzzy nature. In order to illustrate some fuzzy procedures and their results an empirical example is included. The paper presents the forecast of agrarian structure of voivodships up to 2020 according to typological groups. The data were taken from Statistical Yearbook of Agriculture edited by Central Statistical Office. The forecast was based on the method of structures’ forecasting proposed by Nowak. Then, on the basis of fuzzy classification method, the prediction of spatial differentiation of the structure under investigation up to 2020 was evaluated. The forecast presents what kind of changes in agrarian structure of voivodships will take place if the direction and rate of changes within the period of 2002 – 2009 remain stable. Investments of local communes are intentional expenditures of capital aimed at increase in tangible and intangible benefits of the commune. All effective expenditures born by the commune on construction and reconstruction of its wealth are treated as funds positively influencing its development and well-being of citizens. The paper was intended to assess the level of dispersion, i.e. concentration of expenditures on investments born by 19 cities acting as counties in Silesian voivodship. The fundamental measure used in research was concentration coefficient proposed by Karol Kukuła and the basis for calculations was data presented in budget usage collected by Regionalna Izba Obrachunkowa in Katowice. The regression theory involves methods and tools of exact description of relations between various types of phenomena. Since many years, it is used for the economic and econometric models formulation, however, as the analyze of literature indicates, regression is understood in different ways. This article is a reflection on the application of quantitative methods in economics processes modeling, with particular emphasis on the relations between them, expressed by regression. The regression theory involves methods and tools of exact description of relations between various types of phenomena. Since many years, it is used for the economic and econometric models formulation, however, as the analyze of literature indicates, regression is understood in different ways. This article is a reflection on the application of quantitative methods in economics processes modeling, with particular emphasis on the relations between them, expressed by regression. The article shows the practical application of the Analytic Network Process in solving decision problems from the field of management. The ANP Model proposed in this paper includes all kinds of dependencies and feedback between decision-making elements in the area of manufacturing management, reflecting the complexity of the problem and actual compounds that occur both between the agents within the company as well as in its surroundings. The paper emphasises the possibility of using experts’ opinion, who gave importance (specifying the validity) of decision-making elements using pairwise comparisons, allowing the identification of factors and the evaluation of their impact on the increase in the volume of production. The article shows the practical application of the Analytic Network Process in solving decision problems from the field of management. The ANP Model proposed in this paper includes all kinds of dependencies and feedback between decision-making elements in the area of manufacturing management, reflecting the complexity of the problem and actual compounds that occur both between the agents within the company as well as in its surroundings. The paper emphasises the possibility of using experts’ opinion, who gave importance (specifying the validity) of decision-making elements using pairwise comparisons, allowing the identification of factors and the evaluation of their impact on the increase in the volume of production. Entering into European Union and financial markets crisis left their stamps on Polish economy. Land market was influenced by these changes the most significantly since December 5, 1989, when new regulations concerning free transactions in land appeared. In the nineties farmland was treated as an additional superfluous ballast, however, together with Polish accession to EU it became one of the most popular alternative investments bringing profiteers huge profits in short term. Unfortunately, financial crisis trundling on the real estate market sadly revised investors’ optimistic plans. Abortive investments in too expensive lands without possibility of being transformed into building terrains became problems to people without appropriate knowledge and skills who had wanted to earn quickly. Currently, despite of spreading fashion of land purchase, the market has been weakened significantly. It can be admitted that finally the farmers instead of profiteers are interested in land purchase, which is the beginning of situation stabilization and the first sign of market maturity. Calculus of variations and optimal control theory are on one hand side intensively developing mathematical theories on the other at the center of both of them lies investigating of extremal problems. In connection with extremal problems there naturally arise questions important for mathematics and applications: 1) does there exist a solution of the problem? 2) is the solution unique? 3) how to really find the solution? For problems with constrains, a general principle was proposed by Lagrange. This idea can be generalized far beyond the limits of the problems that he considered. In the paper we present unified formulation of problems of calculus of variations and optimal control in connection with Lagrange principle. There is a 5:1 ratio between the number of households and business entities. This ratio is considered “quantum satis”. The purpose of this paper is to estimate level of local government unit’s financial independence in eastern Poland. For this purpose it was used multidimensional statistical analysis allowing to describe complex effect with help of one variable, so called value of synthetic variable (Hellwig’s method, additive aggregation function). The purpose of this paper is to estimate level of local government unit’s financial independence in eastern Poland. For this purpose it was used multidimensional statistical analysis allowing to describe complex effect with help of one variable, so called value of synthetic variable (Hellwig’s method, additive aggregation function). A number of recent papers on the management of the stock portfolio describes the advantages of the naïve diversification. The naïve strategy performs similarly to the ones which use sophisticated mathematical models. In this paper the strategy is presented which statistically significantly overperforms the naïve strategy. The aim of the paper was to make an attempt to assess the influence of belonging to selected population groups on the size of flows between different states of economic activity, as well as to determine the nature of unemployment found in the various population groups, especially among the rural population. The research showed that the changes in economic activity are mainly affected by structural factors, but in some population groups it is possible to improve the employment situation through actions towards an improvement of the prosperity on the market of goods and services. The aim of the paper was to make an attempt to assess the influence of belonging to selected population groups on the size of flows between different states of economic activity, as well as to determine the nature of unemployment found in the various population groups, especially among the rural population. The research showed that the changes in economic activity are mainly affected by structural factors, but in some population groups it is possible to improve the employment situation through actions towards an improvement of the prosperity on the market of goods and services. Dynamic development of organic farming in Poland is observed since 2004. At that time were introduced the subsidies to organic agricultural production for farms with the certificate of conformity and were in the course of the changes. The aim of this study is to present the dynamics of growth of the number and size of organic farms and the number of organic ecological factories in Poland in the years 2004-2010 and the designation of the forecasts for the next three years. To designate the forecasts of investigated phenomena it was used extrapolation of models of development trends method. In this paper we discuss the development of the rural population in Poland over the past 60 years and the latest demographic projections of Central Statistical Office. The main objects of our attention are the demographic processes in rural-urban cross-section. Poland belongs to the less urbanized countries in Europe. Among Polish neighbors, a lower proportion of urban population is only in Slovakia. However, in the past, differences in the level of urbanization between Poland and other European countries were much higher. In the years 1950-1990 the percentage of urban population in Poland increased from 35 to 62%. However, since 1990. share of rural population has ceased to fall and in the last few years have seen a decline in urbanization even in our country. The main reason for the change is a systematic change in the directions of rural-urban migration. More and more urban population moves to the village. Quite interestingly, this process began much earlier than the changed political system in Poland. Since 1975. decreases systematically negative balance of net rural-urban migration. Since 2000. more and more of the population migrates to the country than comes out. We also pay attention that a similar phenomenon of the growing importance of the share of rural population also occurs in other countries. However, while Poland is following the European countries also in the sphere of customary transformation, the village population seems to be the mainstay of traditional family values. In this paper we discuss the development of the rural population in Poland over the past 60 years and the latest demographic projections of Central Statistical Office. The main objects of our attention are the demographic processes in rural-urban cross-section. Poland belongs to the less urbanized countries in Europe. Among Polish neighbors, a lower proportion of urban population is only in Slovakia. However, in the past, differences in the level of urbanization between Poland and other European countries were much higher. In the years 1950-1990 the percentage of urban population in Poland increased from 35 to 62%. However, since 1990. share of rural population has ceased to fall and in the last few years have seen a decline in urbanization even in our country. The main reason for the change is a systematic change in the directions of rural-urban migration. More and more urban population moves to the village. Quite interestingly, this process began much earlier than the changed political system in Poland. Since 1975. decreases systematically negative balance of net rural-urban migration. Since 2000. more and more of the population migrates to the country than comes out. We also pay attention that a similar phenomenon of the growing importance of the share of rural population also occurs in other countries. However, while Poland is following the European countries also in the sphere of customary transformation, the village population seems to be the mainstay of traditional family values. In this article, the problem of optimization of crop production was formulated as nonlinear generalized transportation problem. As a solution the author proposed generalized quasi-basis method. The illustrative example completes the presentation. The study exemplifies an application of the multidimensional comparative analysis aiming at quantification of international competitiveness of the agri-food economy. The international competitive position was equated to a form of a synthetic measure. The coefficients trends allowed quantifying perspectives of equalization of international competitiveness levels between countries. The empirical investigation identified six patterns of the observed interdependences. Convergence should not be expected in the whole set, but in subgroups of objects. In the light of the Central Statistical Office data from 2010, farm equipment is shows very high differentiation in spatial aspect across Poland. The paper presents an attempt to construct ranking of voivodships with respect to the level of farm equipment. On the basis of zero unitarization method different variables are compared and used to form the synthetic variable. In consequence, three groups of districts were distinguished: of high, moderate and low level of farm equipment. This work is devoted to discussions on application of relative measures of accuracy of the ex-post forecasts. The authors showed that when the variable has a very large amplitude of seasonality indicators the average absolute forecast error (MAPE) can not be used. Theoretical study are illustrated on the example of thermal energy production. This work is devoted to discussions on application of relative measures of accuracy of the ex-post forecasts. The authors showed that when the variable has a very large amplitude of seasonality indicators the average absolute forecast error (MAPE) can not be used. Theoretical study are illustrated on the example of thermal energy production. The analysis of monthly prices of broiler chicken livestock in years 1991 - 2011 in this paper was presented. Decomposition of price time series was performed using method Census II/X11. Price of broiler chicken livestock characterize stable an stronger in recent years seasonality. In 2011 the seasonal index was ranged from 107,3% in August to 92,2% in December. In the range of six month more than half of price variability (51,4%) is a result of long period changes, 44,9% of variability is shaped by seasonal fluctuations and only 3,7% is made by irregulars fluctuations. In this paper, the rankings of the food industry sector companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange were made on the basis of Taxonomic Attractiveness Measure of Investment. The following groups of variables were included in this study: liquidity ratios, profitability ratios, debt ratios, activity ratios, market-based ratios. Then analyzed whether the positions in the rankings of investigated companies remained stable over the period 2009-2011. In this paper, the rankings of the food industry sector companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange were made on the basis of Taxonomic Attractiveness Measure of Investment. The following groups of variables were included in this study: liquidity ratios, profitability ratios, debt ratios, activity ratios, market-based ratios. Then analyzed whether the positions in the rankings of investigated companies remained stable over the period 2009-2011. The article focuses on trade between Japan and Poland, in 2000-2010 years, using the SITC (Standard International Trade Classification), identifying trends occurring among one of classification group: Food and live animals. Analysis of exports and imports between Japan and Poland shows big changes in trade with Japan and the large growing difference in the trade balance. Furthermore the imported and exported groups of products show market differences and demand in Japan. The paper presented classification of voivodships due to the selected financial data business accommodation and catering department. For this purpose it was used the multidimensional statistical analysis allowing describe complex effect with help of one variable, so called value synthetic variable. Among the factors that impact the absorption of European Union funds in Polish agriculture, natural, demographic, technical and organisational conditions of the development of agriculture can be differentiated. The basic objective of the article is to identify and quantify the factors, which significantly impact the territorial differentiation of the absorption of European Union Funds in Polish agriculture within the framework of the “Modernisation of agricultural holdings” Rural Development Programme for 2007-2013. Among the factors that impact the absorption of European Union funds in Polish agriculture, natural, demographic, technical and organisational conditions of the development of agriculture can be differentiated. The basic objective of the article is to identify and quantify the factors, which significantly impact the territorial differentiation of the absorption of European Union Funds in Polish agriculture within the framework of the “Modernisation of agricultural holdings” Rural Development Programme for 2007-2013. The wage effects of student numbers on particular fields of study in Poland are analyzed. It is found that any of the fields of study, i.e. humanitarian, business and economics, technical or natural sciences, contributes to an increase in wages on the macroeconomic level, but the whole effect is smaller for studies in economics, which could be an outcome of too high interest in that kind of education. On the other side, our results for technical studies could be viewed as an argument in favor of an excess labor market demand for engineers compared to their supply by the educational system.

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1 Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

1 2012

1 Adamowicz M.

1 Janulewicz P.

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Wykorzystanie metod wielowymiarowych w określeniu pozycji konkurencyjnej gminy na przykładzie województwa lubelskiego