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1
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Trading volume and volatility of stock returns: Evidence from some European and Asian stock markets

100%
Chocholatá M.
Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
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2011
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vol. 12
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issue 1
27-36
EN
This paper analyses the relationship between the daily volatility of stock returns and the trading volume using the TGARCH models for selected European and Asian stock markets. The leverage effect has been proved in all analysed cases. The logarithm of the trading volume was included into the conditional volatility equation as a proxy for information arrival time. Although in case of all analysed Asian stock returns the inclusion of the trading volume led to the moderate decline of the conditional volatility persistence, the results in case of European stock returns were not so unambiguous.
2
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Modeling of returns and trading volume by regime switching copulas

100%
Gurgul H., Machno A., Mestel R.
Managerial Economics
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2013
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vol. 13
45-64
EN
The structure of links between realized volatility and trading volume can be reflected by regime switching copulas. The estimation by means of copula based regime switching models delivered results concerning the interdependencies between realized return volatility and trading volume of selected companies listed in ATX. A copula in the first regime was chosen as an asymmetric copula with positive lower and upper tail dependencies. Conversely Gaussian copula in the second regime is a symmetric copula and variables linked with it are tail independent. For all analyzed stocks the probability of being at the first regime appeared to be vitally greater than being at the second regime. This result suggest that there is considerable dependence between realized volatility and daily volume in extreme values. The results suggest that interdependencies between realized volatility and trading volume do not probably depend on the size but rather on the branch of a company.
3
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The impact of estimation methods and data frequency on the results of long memory assessment

88%
Gurgul H., Brania K.
Managerial Economics
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2015
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vol. 16
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issue 1
7-37
EN
The main goal of this paper is to examine the effects of selected methods of estimation (the Geweke and Porter-Hudak, modified Geweke and Porter-Hudak, Whittle, R/S Rescaled Range Statistic, aggregated variance, aggregated absolute value, and Peng’s variance of residuals methods) and data frequency on properties of Hurst exponents for stock returns, volatility, and trading volumes of 43 companies and eight stock market indices. The calculations have been performed for a time series of log-returns, squared log-returns, and log-volume (based on hourly and daily data) by nine methods. Descriptive statistics and distribution laws of Hurst exponents depend on the method of estimation and, to some extent, on data frequency (daily and hourly). While by and large in log-returns no long memory has been detected, some estimation methods confirm the existence of long memory in squared log-returns. All of the applied estimation methods show long memory in log-volume data.
4
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The testing of causal stock returns-trading volume dependencies with the aid of copulas

88%
Gurgul H., Mestel R., Syrek R.
Managerial Economics
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2013
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vol. 13
21-44
EN
This paper is concerned with a dependence analysis of returns, return volatility and trading volume for five companies listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange. Taking into account the high frequency data for these companies, tests based on a comparison of Bernstein copula densities using the Hellinger distance were conducted. It is worth noting that these tests can be used in general settings since there is no restrietion on the dimension of the data. The parameter which must be set up for the testing procedure is a bandwidth. It is necessary for estimation of the nonparametric copula. The paper presents some patterns of causal relationships between stock returns, realized volatility and expected and unexpected trading volume. There is linear causality running from realized volatility to expected trading volume, and a lack of nonlinear dependence in the opposite direction. The authors detected strong linear and nonlinear causality from stock returns to expected trading volume. Therefore, a knowledge of past stock returns can improve forecasts of expected trading volume. They did not find causality running in the opposite direction.
5
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The structure of contemporaneous price-volume relationships in financial markets.

88%
Gurgul H., Syrek R.
Managerial Economics
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2013
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vol. 14
39-60
EN
The main goal of this paper is an examination of the interdependence stuctures of stock returns, volatility and trading volumes of companies listed on the CAC40 and FTSE100. The authors establish that the mean values of respective measures are different on the markets under study. In general, they are larger for equities from CAC40 than from FTSE100. The Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis with long memory is rejected for about 70 % of stocks from both markets. Additionally fractional cointegration was tested. The lack of fractional cointegration, suggests a rejection of the last variant of MDH in all cases, i.e. the time series under study do not exhibit common long-run dependence. The analyzed time series are not driven by a common information arrival process with long memory. Correlation between volatility and trading volume is present for all the stocks of companies from these markets. The mixtures of rotated copulas and Kendall correlation coefficient allowed the checking of extreme return-volume dependence structures. The empirical results reflect significant dependencies between high volatility and high trading volume. In general, the dependence structures of stock returns and trading volume are different. In the case of CAC40 companies high trading volume is not correlated as frequently with high stock returns as with low stock returns. For companies listed on the FTSE100 high stock returns are mostly related with high trading volume.
6
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Linear and nonlinear intraday causalities in response to U.S. macroeconomic news announcements: Evidence from Central Europe

88%
Gurgul H., Lach Ł., Wójtowicz T.
Managerial Economics
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2016
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vol. 17
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issue 2
217-240
EN
This paper deals with an analysis of the information flow on and between three European stock markets operating in Frankfurt, Vienna, and Warsaw. We examine causal links between returns, volatility, and trading volume as well as the time of reaction to a news release and changes in the duration of causal interference. To model the conditional variance, we use the ARMA(1,1)-EGARCH-M(1,1) model. We investigate linear and nonlinear Granger causalities on the three stock exchanges using Bayesian large sample correction of the critical values in significance tests. The results of our study confirm the dominant role of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, since the most significant linear relationship is the causality running from DAX30 returns to the returns of the ATX20 and WIG20 (which exists irrespective of the time of the day, presence of important public news, and lag length of the underlying VAR models). Moreover, the empirical results of this paper confirm the strong impact of announcements of macroeconomic news from the U.S. economy on the structure of both linear and nonlinear causal links on the three markets under study.
7
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Zmienność kursu CHF/PLN a obroty kontraktami futures na CHF/PLN na GPW w Warszawie

75%
Widz E.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
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2015
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vol. 49
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issue 4
EN
The paper examines the relationship between the return volatility of CHF/PLN rate, the return volatility of CHF/PLN futures and level of trading volume of these futures on the WSE for the period of January 2011 to March 2015. The research has proved that the indicators of analyzed volatilities and their correlation were exceptionally high in the third quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2015 as so was trading volume. However, correlation coefficients have indicated a weak relationship between return volatility and trading volume of CHF/PLN futures in long term.
PL
Celem artykułu jest określenie zależności między zmiennością na rynku pary walutowej CHF/PLN i zmiennością na rynku kontraktów futures na kurs CHF/PLN a obrotami na rynku tych kontraktów w okresie od stycznia 2011 r. do końca marca 2015 r. (badanie przeprowadzono dla kontraktów wygasających w tym okresie). W badaniach został uwzględniony wpływ na wolumen obrotów zarówno zmienności kursów na zamknięcie, jak i wahań kursów ekstremalnych (minimalnych i maksymalnych) kontraktów.
8
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Trading Volume and Capital Gains Tax - Evidence from Selected Stock Markets with Different Characteristics

63%
Gniadkowska-Szymańska A., Gubareva M.
Finanse i Prawo Finansowe
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2022
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vol. 3
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issue 35
43-52
PL
Cel artykułu/hipoteza: Celem niniejszego artykułu jest zbadanie zależności między po-datkiem od zysków kapitałowych płaconym przez inwestorów a płynnością rynku wyra-żoną wielkością obrotu. Metodyka: W niniejszym opracowaniu jako zmienną, na którą mogą wpływać podatki od zysków kapitałowych, zaproponowano miarę płynności rynku, wyrażoną wielkością ob-rotu. Niniejszy artykuł przedstawia nowe podejście do analizy płynności rynków kapita-łowych. Wyniki/Rezultaty badania: Na podstawie analizy danych stwierdzono, że im wyższe po-datki od zysków kapitałowych płacą inwestorzy, tym będą oni mniej skłonni do realizacji swoich zysków i tak wygląda sytuacja na wysoko rozwiniętym rynku (analizowany rynek amerykański). Jednak, jak wynika z uzyskanych wyników, w przypadku krajów europej-skich reprezentujących rynki giełdowe po transformacji systemowej, im wyższe podatki od zysków kapitałowych, tym wyższy powinien być obrót akcjami na tych rynkach.
EN
The purpose of the article/hypothesis: The goal of this paper is to investigate the relationship between capital gains tax paid by investors and the liquidity of the market, expressed by the trading volume. Methodology: In this study, the measure of market liquidity, expressed by the trading volume, has been proposed as a variable that may be influenced by taxes on capital gains. The article presents a new approach to the analysis of the liquidity of capital markets. Results of the research: Based on the data analysis, it was found that the higher the taxes on capital gains are paid by investors, the less likely they are to take their profits, and this is the situation on a highly developed market (the analysed US market). However, as it turns out from the results obtained, in the case of European countries representing stock markets after the systemic transformation, the higher the taxes on capital gains, the higher the share trading in these markets should be.
9
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Stopy zwrotu a wielkość obrotów na GPW w Warszawie

63%
Gurgul H., Wójtowicz T.
Folia Oeconomica Cracoviensia
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2008-2009
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vol. 49-50
31-45
EN
In the paper the results of empirical investigations of dynamic relationships between extreme trading volume and subsequent stock returns on Warsaw Stock Exchange are presented. The event study methodology is applied. The dynamic relationship between the financial variables is rather weak and depends on kind and size of the stock exchange. The high-volume-return-premium is more pronounced for small size stocks with lower liquidity levels.
10
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Linear versus nonlinear causality for DAX companies

63%
GURGUL H., LACH Ł.
Operations Research and Decisions
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2009
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vol. 19
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issue 3
27-46
EN
This study provides empirical evidence of the joint dynamics between stock returns and trading volume using stock data for DAX companies. Our research confirms the hypothesis that traditional linear causality tests often fail to detect some kinds of nonlinear relations, while nonlinear tests do not. In many cases, the test results obtained by use of empirical data and simulation confirm a bidirectional causal relationship, while linear tests did not detect such causality at all.
PL
W badaniach empirycznych, prezentowanych w literaturze a dotyczących zależności pomiędzy wielkością obrotów, stopami zwrotu i ich zmiennością, jest o wiele mniej wyników dotyczących przyczynowości nieliniowej niż liniowej. Naszą pracę wyróżnia spośród innych prac przede wszystkim to, że w artykule są przedstawione nie tylko wyniki z zakresu przyczynowości liniowej, ale i nieliniowej. Stosując testy przyczynowości liniowej i nieliniowej dla giełdy frankfurckiej zbadano, czy znajomość wielkości obrotów może być pomocna w prognozowaniu stóp zwrotu i ich zmienności. Badanie przeprowadzono w trzech wersjach: dla wielkości obrotów z usuniętym trendem, dla oczekiwanej wielkości obrotów i nieoczekiwanej wielkości obrotów. Badania, przeprowadzone zarówno za pomocą testu przyczynowości liniowej, jak i nieliniowej, potwierdzają istnienie przyczynowości od oczekiwanej wielkości obrotów do stóp zwrotu i ich zmienności. Drugim empirycznie stwierdzonym interesującym faktem jest równoczesne występowanie statystycznie istotnej zależności w odwrotnym kierunku. Natomiast w przypadku uwzględnienia w badaniach nieoczekiwanej wielkości obrotów przyczynowości są słabe, a w większości nieistotne statystycznie. Jednakże w przypadku tej wersji wielkości obrotów test nieliniowy wykrywa więcej istotnych wypadków niż test liniowy. W pracy, w celu porównania poprawności wskazań liniowych i nieliniowych testów przyczynowości, przeprowadzono też badania symulacyjne na bazie sześciu wybranych modeli nieliniowych.
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