Search results - CEJSH

1

Ethics and Uncertainty: The Guest Editor’s Introduction

100%

Żuradzki T.

Diametros

|

2017

|

issue 53

1-5

EN

The Guest Editor’s Introduction

2

The effect of uncertainty on capital structure

100%

Wennie W., Nugroho V. C.

Journal of Management and Financial Sciences

|

2023

|

issue 47

71-86

EN

The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of uncertainty on the capital structure of public listed companies in Indonesia. This study used asset volatility as a method of measuring uncertainty. The researchers use unbalanced panel data from 2009 to 2019 in order to assess and analyse the effect of uncertainty on the company‘s capital structure. The results of this study indicate a positive relationship between uncertainty and the company‘s target leverage.

3

A Critical Realist Perspective on Decisions Involving Risk and Uncertainty

80%

Ranyard R.

Polish Psychological Bulletin

|

2014

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vol. 45

|

issue 1

3-11

EN

The relevance to decision research of recent advances in the philosophy of social science is considered. The critical realism of Roy Bhaskar argues for the identification of contextually contingent explanatory mechanisms at multiple levels based on concepts grounded in intersubjectively shared reality. Using examples from the author’s and other’s research on the psychology of decisions involving risk and uncertainty, this paper explores the implications of taking a critical realist approach. It is argued that critical realism has the potential to advance and unify disparate experimental and naturalistic lines of research. Furthermore, a diverse range of experimental, process-tracing and observational methods can play important complementary roles in developing fruitful critical realist explanations of decisions involving risk and uncertainty.

4

Global Duties in the Face of Uncertainty

80%

Loriaux S.

Diametros

|

2017

|

issue 53

75-95

EN

This paper aims to highlight the role played by uncertainties in global justice theories. It will start by identifying four kinds of uncertainties that could potentially have an impact on the nature, content and very existence of global duties: first, uncertainties regarding the causes of global injustices; second, uncertainties regarding the consequences of global justice initiatives; third, uncertainties pertaining to the 'imperfect' character of certain global duties; and fourth, uncertainties regarding the conduct of others. It will discuss each of these uncertainties in turn, with particular attention to their normative implications, their distinctively 'global' source, and the possibility of their being addressed. It will conclude with some reflections on how the normative issues raised by uncertainties related to spatial distance compare to those raised by uncertainties related to temporal distance.

5

Real Estate Investment Optimal Portfolio Selection: A Case Study of European Countries

80%

Stankevičienė J.

Issues of Business and Law

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2009

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vol. 1

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issue 1

1-9

EN

The paper concentrates on aspects of real estate investment risk management and highlights risk reduction abilities of diversified investment portfolio. The core problem of the paper is the investment decision making under risk which can arise due to instable market conditions and ever changing levels of prices. Throughout the investigation of this problem could be useful, in both practical and theoretical areas, to provide an insight of riskiness of investment possibilities in Western and Eastern Europe as well as to provide material for further theoretical investigations. The main goal of this work is to discuss the nature of real estate investment risks and to form real estate investment portfolio with application to European markets in order to find an investment solution according to risk. Altogether with mean-variance portfolio scheme, the idea of adequate for stochastic nature of investment efficiency portfolio is used in constructing corresponding three-investment portfolio sets helping to select optimal ones for different investors.

6

Potrzeba zarządzania ryzykiem działalności i jego mitygacji przez podmioty gospodarcze jako konsekwencja niepewności i niestabilności współczesnych rynków międzynarodowych

80%

Pera J.

Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

|

2013

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issue 902

37-51

EN

The purpose of this paper is to formulate the problem of managing and mitigating the risks involved in the activities of business organisations operating in both domestic and international markets in the light of the fact that international markets are unstable. In the absence of coherent, unified and widespread mitigation mechanisms at the level of national economies and in the face of the speculative strategies being commonly adopted by businesses, international financial markets are becoming increasingly turbulent and companies must cope with rising expenses. Risk management should be a comprehensive process involving all aspects of the company’s business. It can be defined as taking a proactive approach to any potential risks and choosing an appropriate strategy for a given company to minimise the dangers it may face.

7

Charakterystyka i klasyfikacja ryzyka w działalności gospodarczej

80%

Thlon M.

Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie

|

2013

|

issue 902

17-36

EN

Risk is an inherent part of economic activity. In practice we distinguish many categories of risk. These classifications are useful from a practical point of view, because they help to answer the question of where sources of risk may be identified. The main goal of this paper is to present basic definitions of risk, risk structures and measurement methods. The paper is structured with that goal in mind. The author first presents a review of the literature on defining risk, analyses definitions of risk and uncertainty and looks at the measures and the structure of risk. On the grounds of his analysis he ascertains that numerous types of risk exist in every enterprise, all of which to varying degrees affect the business’s proper functioning. The analysis of the sources and structures of risk allows him to point out threats accompanying the different kinds of risk and to put forward the most effective measures for minimizing the influence of risk on financial results.

8

Heuristic methods as a powerful managerial tool for enterprise in times of uncertainty

80%

Mazurkiewicz M.

Kwartalnik Nauk o Przedsiębiorstwie

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2022

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vol. 63

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issue 1

57-70

PL

W zarządzaniu przedsiębiorstwem, niepewność należy do atrybutów podejmowanych decyzji menedżerskich. W konkurencyjnych środowiskach, gdzie sukces zależy od wysokiej jakości decyzji, podejmowanie błędnych kroków może doprowadzić do utraty rynku lub nawet przyczynić się do zakończenia działalności. Dlatego tak ważne jest, aby spośród wielu alternatywnych metod wybrać tę, która będzie skuteczna w rozwiązywaniu problemów w prosty i szybki sposób. Heurystyka oferuje rozwiązania, które udowodniają swoją przydatność w niepewnym otoczeniu biznesowym. Celem pracy jest przedstawienie i ocena metod heurystycznych oraz wykazanie ich specyfiki i możliwości zastosowania w naukach o zarządzaniu przedsiębiorstwami w warunkach niepewności. W artykule przybliżono aspekt teoretyczny heurystyk menedżerskich, położono również nacisk na przedstawienie praktycznych przykładów zastosowania heurystyk w przedsiębiorstwach w warunkach niepewności, także w czasie pandemii Covid-19, wyciągnięto wnioski i sformułowano praktyczne rekomendacje.

EN

In managing enterprise, uncertainty belongs to the attributes of the decision making processes. In competitive environments, where success depends on high-quality decisions, taking the wrong steps can lead to loss of market share or even contribute to running out of business. That is why it is important to choose from the many alternatives those methods which will be most effective in solving problems in a simple and quick way, and heuristics offer such a solution, which has proved its usefulness in uncertain business environments. The aim of this study is to present and evaluate heuristic methods and show their specificity and applicability in management science for enterprises in times of uncertainty. In this article, the theoretical aspect of managerial heuristics is presented, and the emphasis is also placed on presenting practical examples of applying heuristics in companies with times of uncertainty, but also in these times of the Covid-19 pandemic. The study also offers conclusions and provides practi al recommendations.

9

Ocena konsekwencji kryzysu pandemicznego COVID-19 w sektorze polskich przedsiębiorstw

80%

Janecki J.

Studia BAS

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2022

|

issue 1(69)

49-68

EN

The aim of the study is to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the situation of enterprises in Poland. For this purpose, the results of the CSO surveys were used (the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic situation), conducted from April 2020 to December 2021. The results of the research indicate a clear differentiation of the situation among enterprises in the analysed period. The problems caused by the pandemic were particularly pronounced among service companies in the accommodation and catering sector, retailers in the textile, clothing and footwear sector, and in the specialist construction sector companies. Moreover, in most cases, within a given problem caused by the pandemic, it was the smaller enterprises that indicated the existence of threats more often.

10

Institutions: Uncertainty in Definition of the Term. A Brief Look at the history: 1890-1930

80%

Arnania-Kepuladze T.

|

2014

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vol. 9

|

issue 4

79-102

EN

: Despite the fact that the significance of institutional economics is commonly recognized, the uncertainty of basic concepts of institutional economics – institutions – and its investigation sphere is widely mentioned today. The paper aims to trace the process of evolution in the understanding of the notion of institution, from its spontaneous mentions and pragmatic use of the so-called pre-institutional era to the desire to understand and to define the essence of the institution in the period of early institutionalism. Based on the analyses of appropriate literature, the paper tries to study how the term “institution” was understood at the three initial historical period of its usage. For this purpose, the first part of the paper analyses how the term “institu-tion” was used at the start by religious figures in VII and XIII centuries and then by thinkers in XVII-XVIII centuries which are considered as a pre-history of the term “institution” wide usage. The second part of the study is focused on the investigation how the term was understood by immediate predecessors of institutional economics – German Historical School, and the third part of the paper investigates scholars-institutionalists’ efforts in the intellectual context on the period 1890-1930.

11

Wild Card as a Phenomenon Cushioning Uncertain Events – Example of Industry 4.0

80%

Magruk A.

Logistics and Transport

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2016

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vol. 31

21-26

EN

The aim of the article is the analysis and characterization of wild cards in both theoretical and practical perspective – in the context of the Industry 4.0. Wild cards are potential future events with a relatively low-probability but high impact on the activity (life, bussines, etc.). Despite the high degree of complexity of the process of identifying, analyzing and interpreting this type of phenomena it seems to be indispensable to have a basic and practical knowledge for the analysis of wild cards. This knowledge can be very useful, especially in an environment exposed to exceptional or emergency event. This seems to be particularly important in the future context in the case of new events, burdened with a high degree of uncertainty. Industry 4.0 is a such event, as one of the main areas of the fourth industrial revolution.

12

Sensitivity analysis of grey linear programming for optimization problems

80%

DARVISHI D., POUROFOGHI F., YI -L IN FORREST J.

Operations Research and Decisions

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2021

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vol. 31

|

issue 4

35-52

EN

Sensitivity analysis of parameters is usually more important than the optimal solution when it comes to linear programming. Nevertheless, in the analysis of traditional sensitivities for a coefficient, a range of changes is found to maintain the optimal solution. These changes can be functional constraints in the coefficients, such as good values or technical coefficients, of the objective function. When real-world problems are highly inaccurate due to limited data and limited information, the method of grey systems is used to perform the needed optimisation. Several algorithms for solving grey linear programming have been developed to entertain involved inaccuracies in the model parameters; these methods are complex and require much computational time. In this paper, the sensitivity of a series of grey linear programming problems is analysed by using the definitions and operators of grey numbers. Also, uncertainties in parameters are preserved in the solutions obtained from the sensitivity analysis. To evaluate the efficiency and importance of the developed method, an applied numerical example is solved.

13

Optimisation model for a chain logistics problem involving chilled food under conditions of uncertainty

80%

TAGHINEZHAD Y.

Operations Research and Decisions

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2019

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vol. 29

|

issue 2

103-116

EN

In the last two decades, food safety has become one of the main concerns in the area of logistics and supply chain management and also in the refrigeration or freezing of goods. Safety is a critically sensitive area in this field, as if the required safety conditions are not satisfied during the logistics process, foods will soon deteriorate and probably become unsafe for consumption by customers. Thus, the problem of ensuring the safety of chilled food has received serious attention among logistics practitioners. However, because of the complex nature of such problems, research so far has been limited to quantitative models with deterministic parameters and the robustness of the results from such models should be examined. In this paper, a robust optimisation model has been developed with the aim of optimising food safety aspects and thus minimising the logistics cost of a chilled chain system under various types of uncertainty and constraints on customers’ time windows. Realizations of the model are solved by an algorithm based on artificial bee colony intelligence using MATLAB R2016a software. Finally, the results are analysed for possible real world considerations in order to propose some key practical highlights.

14

Dempster–Shafer Theory for Risk Assessment in Project Management

80%

Łabędzka J.

Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Częstochowskiej. Zarządzanie

|

2022

|

issue 48

100-112

PL

Project management (PM) involves decision-making processes related to reaching project goals, resources allocation, timelines, intended outputs, outcomes, long-term impacts, etc. Decisions create challenges for those involved in leading and managing projects, such as information overload, time constraints, uncertainty, and biases. Decision-making in PM is especially supported by risk analysis focused on the identification and assessment of factors that could affect (positively or negatively) a successful project delivery. Uncertainty in estimating project risks is considered one of the major challenges in Management Science. The paper draws attention to the root cause of uncertainty in human reasoning in relation to decision-making processes with particular emphasis on risk analysis. A literature review revealed that the area of risk assessment in PM has been dominated by qualitative methods that do not take uncertainty into account. Therefore, the main objective of this paper was to apply the Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), which provides a framework for representing uncertainties by allowing beliefs to not be assigned to a specific subset. Accordingly, the applied research design was employed in this study. The re-search sample included 60 experts that assessed project risks. In order to determine the belief (Bel) and plausibility (Pl) functions, all the evidence was combined using Dempster’s rule of combination, in order to arrive at quantified beliefs. The final results of the study showed that this evidence-based framework for project risk assessment is applicable and easy to use, even for a large number of experts and could support PM practitioners in risk management and decision-making.

15

Growth and Decline of Assets: On Biased Judgments of Asset Accumulation and Investment Decisions

70%

Gonzalez N., Svenson O.

Polish Psychological Bulletin

|

2014

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vol. 45

|

issue 1

29-35

EN

Previous research showed that accumulations of capital following stationary interest rates are underestimated by human judges. Hyperbolic discounting was suggested as a descriptive and explanatory model for this phenomenon. First, we investigated judged accumulated capital after a period of annual growth and decline. The degree of underestimation increased with accumulated growth and the results supported hyperbolic discounting as a descriptive model on the group level. However, the hyperbolic model did not apply to the data for one third of the participants. Second, we investigated how investment decisions were related to capital accumulation before the investments and to judgments of the possible outcomes of the future investments. To our surprise, the participants’ judgments of expected future accumulated capital did not add predictive power to predictions based on whether there was growth or decline before the investment decision. Unfortunately this strategy leads to suboptimal investment decisions.

16

Uncertainty and Control

70%

Hansson S. O.

Diametros

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2017

|

issue 53

50-59

EN

In a decision making context, an agent’s uncertainty can be either epistemic, i.e. due to her lack of knowledge, or agentive, i.e. due to her not having made (full) use of her decision-making power. In cases when it is unclear whether or not a decision maker presently has control over her own future actions, it is difficult to determine whether her uncertainty is epistemic or agentive. Such situations are often difficult for the agent to deal with, but from an outsider’s perspective, they can have sensible pragmatic solutions.

17

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSES IN ALBPETROL COMPANY

70%

Mjeda B.

Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych

|

2018

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vol. 19

|

issue 4

411-418

EN

Large companies like Albpetrol often deal with big projects. The decision to invest is based on the evaluation of the project profitability. But how certain is the calculated profitability? What if the costs overrun during implementation of the project? What if the reservoir performance is less than estimated? And what if the project completion is delayed? The focus will be on how to make people more aware of the risks and uncertainties in economic evaluations and to show the influence of these uncertainties on the economic indicators. Economic evaluations in the oil industry are carried out with cash flow models. Traditionally, these evaluations are carried out with the estimated (most likely) set of parameters. Usually some parameters, such as project costs or reserves, are varied manually as ‘sensitivities’ to show the potential impact on profitability. In this report, it is proposed to treat the uncertainties by defining stochastic parameters with carefully specified supports based on inputs from discipline experts. In this manner a better insight is gained in the distribution of the project profitability. Some of the key uncertainties in oil and gas investments have been investigated in detail. Thinking in terms of scenarios will help to take better decisions (e.g. about field development concepts) that are robust against a range of scenarios.

18

"You Can't Get by Without the Dream": Belief in Julian Barnes's A History of the World in 10 ½ Chapters

70%

Tory E.

Romanian Journal of English Studies

|

2014

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vol. 11

|

issue 1

137-143

EN

This paper presents a less examined dimension of Barnes’s writings, which is the dominant role that belief plays in the development of his characters in A History of the World in 10 1/2 Chapters. The main argument of my essay is whether love can be considered as the most significant proposition of the novel. A content-based analysis of the novel’s “The Survivor” chapter demonstrates Barnes’ sceptic attitude towards postmodern rationalism, while the examination of "Parenthesis" and "Dream" chapter shows that hope, which becomes synonymous with belief in the novel, is actually the most permeating phenomenon in the novel.

19

A Composition of Fuzzy Sets

70%

Levin V. I.

Studia Humana

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2015

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vol. 4

|

issue 4

39-46

EN

A new operation on fuzzy sets - the r-composition of n-sets - is introduced. The particular cases of this operation are logical conjunction (r = 1) or disjunction (r = n). In the general case (1 < r < n), this operation is purely fuzzy and has no analogs among the operations on fuzzy sets. The operation of r-composition is applied to the solution of control problems under uncertainty.

20

Making decisions in an ever-changing environment - A research agenda

70%

Pataki B., Padar K.

Perspectives of Innovations, Economics and Business

|

2013

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vol. 13

|

issue 1

33-42

EN

Simon recognized the limitations of the classical normative decision theory and established descriptive theory. His concept of bounded rationality and administrative behavior was a big step ahead, but the world has changed dramatically since then. Multiple, continuous changes have become normal, which brings up new problems on the decision maker’s and on the organization’s level as well. It became usual that the decision maker is not able to define preferences for lack of knowledge and have to learn or delegate much more frequently than before. In the same time the organization should be more resilient or nimble in this ever-changing environment. The authors outline a research agenda on both levels: some about the continuous learning and frequent delegating, and some about the HRM and IT-management issues of organizational nimbleness.

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