SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF PANDEMIC INFLUENZA MITIGATION SCENARIOS IN SLOVAKIA

• Authors: Brunovský Pavol , Ševčovič Daniel , Somorčík Ján , Hroncová Dagmar , Pospíšilová Kateřina
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

The aim of this paper is to assess the expected socio-economic impacts of various scenarios of pandemic influenza mitigation on the economy and mortality for Slovakia. Compared to similar past studies (e.g. Van Genugten et al. (2003)), the authors' approach bears a significant difference. Whereas those studies work from the very beginning with the expected values of the data, they have treated the data as well as the model parameters as random variables. Results in the form of probability distributions and their characteristics (expected values and tolerance intervals) were obtained by stochastic Monte Carlo simulations of random impacts on 5,400,000 inhabitants of Slovakia. Six scenarios of pandemic mitigation have been analyzed. Total costs of medical treatment, the number of casualties as well as social costs with casualties included were compared.

Keywords

EN

INFLUENZA; MITIGATION; MONTE CARLO SIMULATION; PANDEMIA; SLOVAKIA

Discipline

• ECONOMICS: ECONOMICS

• Publisher: Institute of Slovak and World Economics and Institute for Forecasting, Slovak Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
• Year: 2009
• Volume: 57
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 163-178
• Document type: ARTICLE

Contributors

author

Brunovský Pavol

• Univerzita Komenského v Bratislave, Fakulta matematiky, fyziky a informatiky, Mlynská dolina, 842 48 Bratislava, Slovak Republic

author

Ševčovič Daniel

author

Somorčík Ján

author

Hroncová Dagmar

author

Pospíšilová Kateřina

• Pavol Brunovsky, Univerzita Komenskeho, Fakulta matematiky, fyziky a informatiky, Katedra aplikovanej matematiky a statistiky, Mlynska dolina, 842 48 Bratislava 4, Slovak Republic

Identifiers

CEJSH db identifier

09SKAAAA065921