MODELLING OF MORTALITY AMONG PEOPLE OVER 80 YEARS OF AGE

• Authors: Purzynski J. , Gazinska M. , Mojsiewicz M.
• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

This paper addresses the issue of numeric calculations related to the modelling of the probability of dying within a year among people aged 80 years and over. According to 'The Force of Mortality between the Ages of 80 and 120' (A.R. Thatcher, V. Kannisto, J.W. Vaupel, 1999), the applicability of the following models were analysed: Gompertz, Weibul, Heligman-Pollard, Kannisto, logistic, and Coale-Kisker. After appropriate modification of the formulas, the authors achieved a better goodness of fit for the logistic and the Coale-Kisker models than that reported in the aforementioned publication. A hyperbolic-tangent model was proposed - being an equivalent to the logistic model - and it provides a much better goodness of fit for the empirical data.

Keywords

EN

LONGEVITY; MORTALITY; MORTBALITY MODELS

Discipline

• OTHER_SOCIAL_SCIENCES: OTHER SOCIAL SCIENCES

• Publisher: Polska Akademia Nauk
• Journal: Studia Demograficzne
• Year: 2005
• Issue: 1(147)
• Pages: 30-49
• Document type: ARTICLE

Contributors

author

Purzynski J.

author

Gazinska M.

author

Mojsiewicz M.

• J. Purzynski, Uniwersytet Szczecinski, al. Jednosci Narodowej 22a, 70-453 Szczecin, Poland

Identifiers

CEJSH db identifier

06PLAAAA01072457