ECONOMIC IMPACT OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS – CASE OF SLOVAKIA

• Authors: Fašungová Lucia , Marek Radvanský
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

European energetic safety is belongs to the most discussed economic issues. This paper analyses impact of sudden, large-scale and persistent gas supply disruptions on the economy. This situation has been observed in real economy, more particularly in Central Europe and Balkan countries during Russia-Ukraine gas crisis at January 2009, where the gas supply was cut-off for 13 days. We will analyse the effects of this cut on Slovak economy, which belongs to one of the most affected. Economic analysis will be based on Computed General Equilibrium methodology – CGE model. Our aim is to estimate gas failure as an exogenous non-marginal supply shock with serious impact on aggregated and structural economic indicators. First quick estimation about possible daily losses at level about one third of daily GDP was confirmed. As a result of this disruption, there was implemented project in Slovakia to allow full reverse flow at main pipeline from Czech Republic. Slovakia can be now supplied from the west in case of unpredictable situation.

Keywords

EN

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELLING; GAS SUPPLY; CUT-OFF; INTERNATIONAL TRADE; SLOVAKIA; PIPELINE

• Publisher: Institute of Slovak and World Economics and Institute for Forecasting, Slovak Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
• Year: 2014
• Volume: 62
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 167 – 184

Contributors

author

Fašungová Lucia

• UK Bratislava, Fakulta matematiky, fyziky a informatiky, Mlynská dolina, 842 48 Bratislava, Slovak Republic

author

Marek Radvanský