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1999 | 63 | 177-184

Article title

Przełącznikowe łańcuchy w badaniach koniunktury

Content

Title variants

EN
Switch Chains in Researches of Economic Situation

Languages of publication

PL

Abstracts

EN
In this paper we present a method of modelling business indicator based on Markov Switching Model (MSM). We apply MSM to business survey data from 1990-1997. We consider two approaches. In the first case we distinguish States of decreasing or increasing business indicator. In the second case we consider dynamics of changes of the business indicator.

Year

Volume

63

Pages

177-184

Physical description

Contributors

author
author

References

  • [1] Amstad M.: Prediction of turning points by use of Markov switching models applied to business sumy data. The 24th Ciret Conference, March 1999, Wellington, New Zealand.
  • [2] Bieć M.: Test koniunktury, Metody, techniki, doświadczenia. „Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego”, SGH, Warszawa 1996.
  • [3] Engel Ch., Hamilton J.D.: Long swings in the dollar: are they in the data and do mar- kets know it? „The American Economic Review” Nr 80/1990.
  • [4] Hamilton J.D.; Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime. An investigation of the term structure of interest rates. „Journal of Economic Dynamics and Contro]” Nr 12/1988.
  • [5] Hamilton J.D.: A new aproach to the economic anlysis of nonstationary time series and business cycle. „Econometrica” Nr 57/1989.
  • [6] Hamilton J.D.: Time series analysis. Princeton Univ. Press, New Jersey 1994.
  • [7] Komaki Y.: Prediction of business turning points: using two type of recession probability models in Japan. The 24* Ciret Conference, March 1999, Wellington, New Zealand.

Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.cejsh-6142512a-ab99-4b83-b436-10d552fe7f40
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