Identifying House Price Diffusion Patterns Among Australian State Capital Cities

• Authors: Chunlu Liu , Zhen Qiang Luo , Le Ma , David Picken

Title variants

LT

Nekilnojamojo Turto Kainų Kitimo Modelių Tarp Australijos Pagrindinių Miestų Nustatymas

Abstracts

EN

Prior research supports the proposition that house price diffusion shows a ripple effect along the spatial dimension. That is, house price changes in one region would reflect in subsequent house price changes in other regions, showing certain linkages among regions. Using the vector autoregression model and the impulse response function, this study investigates house price diffusion among Australia's state capital cities, examining the response of one market to the innovation of other markets and determining the lagged terms for the maximum absolute value of the other markets' responses. The results show that the most important subnational markets in Australia do not point to Sydney, rather towards Canberra and Hobart, while the Darwin market plays a role of buffer. The safest markets are Sydney and Melbourne. This study helps to predict house price movement trends in eight capital cities.

LT

Ankstesnių tyrimų duomenimis, nekilnojamojo turto kainų kitimas sukelia bangų efektą atsižvelgiant į erdvinį matmenį. Tai yra nekilnojamojo turto kainų kitimus viename regione rodytų paskesnis nekilnojamojo turto kainų kitimas kituose regionuose. Taip ryškėja tam tikri glaudūs ryšiai tarp regionų. Taikant vektorinį autoregresinį modelį ir impulso perdavimo funkciją, šioje studijoje tiriama nekilnojamojo turto kainų kitimas tarp pagrindinių Australijos miestų, nagrinėjant vienos rinkos reakciją į kitų rinkų naujoves bei nustatant uždelstus terminus kitų rinkų reakcijų maksimaliai absoliutinei vertei. Rezultatai rodo, kad svarbiausios Australijos vidaus rinkos nėra orientuotos į Sidnėjų, bet labiau į Kanberą ir Hobartą. Darvino rinka atlieka buferio vaidmenį. Saugiausios rinkos yra Sidnėjus ir Melburnas. Ši studija padeda numatyti nekilnojamojo turto kainų judėjimo tendencijas aštuoniuose pagrindiniuose Australijos miestuose.

Keywords

EN

Regional house prices; House price diffusion; Vector autoregression model; Impulse response; Market efficiency

• Publisher: Sciendo
• Journal: International Journal of Strategic Property Management
• Year: 2008
• Volume: 12
• Issue: 4
• Pages: 237-250

Contributors

author

Chunlu Liu

• School of Architecture and Building, Deakin University, Waterfront Campus, 1 Gheringhap Street, Geelong, Vic 3217, Australia

author

Zhen Qiang Luo

• Dongguan Construction Engineering Evaluation Consulting CO. LTD, Dongguan, Guangdong 523112, China

author

Le Ma

• School of Architecture and Building, Deakin University, Waterfront Campus, 1 Gheringhap Street, Geelong, Vic 3217, Australia

author

David Picken

• School of Architecture and Building, Deakin University, Waterfront Campus, 1 Gheringhap Street, Geelong, Vic 3217, Australia

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Identifiers

DOI

10.3846/1648-715X.2008.12.237-250