Czy można wierzyć badaniom koniunktury?

• Authors: Adamowicz Elżbieta , Dudek Sławomir , Walczyk Konrad

Abstracts

EN

Business tendency surveys (BTS) have a long tradition in maturę market economies. The survey results are used to diagnose the economic conditions of a country and to forecast the direction of changes in business activity. One can observe that economic units (ie business firms), financial institutions, municipal organizations and public administration are all interested in the data obtained from these surveys. The paper presents some of the results of the research conducted by the Research Institute of Economic Development (RIED) on the use of business survey data (qualitative data elaborated by RIED) to forecast the industrial production index (quantitative data elaborated by Central Statistics Office). As a qualitative variable we used the balance of opinion about generał economic situation (diagnostic and expectation). Presented are results of three types of analyses: graphic analysis, crosscorrelation analysis and econometric analysis.

• Publisher: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
• Journal: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
• Year: 2002
• Volume: 72
• Pages: 141-152

Contributors

author

Adamowicz Elżbieta

author

Dudek Sławomir

author

Walczyk Konrad