Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy

• Authors: Biro Aniko , Elek Peter , Vincze Janos
• Languages of publication: HU

Abstracts

EN

This paper analyses the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy using a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the fundamental principles of modelling and the building blocks of the model investigated, within a scenario analysis, the authors present the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty - defined in a broad sense - are categorized in three groups: change in the external environment (e.g. the exchange rate), uncertainties in the behaviour of economic agents (e.g. in speed of wage adjustment or extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (e.g. the increase in public sector wages). The macroeconomic consequences of these uncertainties are shown not to be independent of each other. For instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.

Keywords

EN

FORECASTING AND OTHER MODEL APPLICATIONS; HUNGARIAN ECONOMY; MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF PUBLIC FINANCE; MACROECONOMIC POLICY; MODEL CONSTRUCTION AND ESTIMATION

Discipline

• ECONOMICS: ECONOMICS

• Publisher: Committee for Economic Sciences of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Kozgazdasagi Szemle (Economic Review)
• Year: 2007
• Volume: 54
• Issue: 9
• Pages: 774-799
• Document type: ARTICLE

Contributors

author

Biro Aniko

author

Elek Peter

author

Vincze Janos

• Aniko Biro, no address given, contact the journal editor

Identifiers

CEJSH db identifier

10HUAAAA07858