Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

PL EN


2020 | 23 | 7-34

Article title

Hurdles and obstacles in moneta- ry policy communication. A model for the communication between the central bank and market

Content

Title variants

PL
Utrudnienia i bariery w komunikacji w polityce pieniężnej. Model komunikacji między bankiem centralnym a rynkami

Languages of publication

EN

Abstracts

EN
Central bank communication has become an essential part of monetary policy in recent years. Against the background of the zero interest rate policy, conventional monetary policy instruments have lost their effectiveness, and the management of market participants’ expectations by means of appropriate communication has become an essential part of monetary policy. In this paper a new model of the communication process between the central bank and financial market players is elaborated, in particular exploring the obstacles and hurdles in the transmission of information from sender to recipient, empirical data are also reported for several stages of the new model. For efficient expectation management, both the selection of information by the central bank as well as the transmission path of this information is important as indirect communication can lead to information distortions. Last but not least, the recipients of the information, as people with a limited capacity and variable readiness to absorb it, play a central role in determining what information actually reaches them. Appropriate communication that takes these obstacles and the recipients’ psychology into account can thus significantly increase the efficiency of monetary policy.
PL
Komunikacja banku centralnego stała się w ostatnich latach istotną częścią polityki pieniężnej. Wobec polityki zerowych stóp procentowych konwencjonalne instrumenty polityki monetarnej straciły na efektywności, a zarządzanie oczekiwaniami uczestników rynku za pomocą odpowiedniej komunikacji stało się istotną częścią polityki pieniężnej. W artykule opracowano nowy model procesu komunikacji między bankiem centralnym a uczestnikami rynku finansowego, w szczególności badając utrudnienia i bariery w przekazywaniu informacji od nadawcy do odbiorcy. Przedstawiono również dane empiryczne z kilku etapów nowego modelu. Dla efektywnego zarządzania oczekiwaniami ważny jest zarówno wybór informacji przez bank centralny, jak i ścieżka ich transmisji, ponieważ komunikacja pośrednia może prowadzić do zniekształceń informacji. I wreszcie, odbiorcy informacji, jako osoby o ograniczonych zdolnościach i zmiennej gotowości do ich przyswajania, odgrywają centralną rolę w określaniu, jakie informacje faktycznie do nich docierają. Odpowiednia komunikacja, uwzględniająca te przeszkody i psychologię odbiorców, może zatem znacznie zwiększyć efektywność polityki pieniężnej.

Year

Issue

23

Pages

7-34

Physical description

Contributors

  • FOM University of Applied Sciences, Germany
  • FOM University of Applied Sciences, Germany

References

  • Alvarez, G. A., and Cavanagh, P. (2004). The capacity of visual short-term memory is set both by visual information load and by number of objects. Psychological Science, 15(2), 106-111.
  • Baker, H. K., and Nofsinger, J. R. (Eds.). (2010). Behavioral finance: investors, corporations, and markets (Vol. 6). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
  • Baker, H. K., Filbeck, G., and Nofsinger, J. R. (2019). Behavioral finance: what everyone needs to know®. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  • Belhoula, M., and Naoui, K. (2011). Herding and positive feedback trading in the American stock market: a two co-directional behavior of investors. International Journal of Business and Management, 6(9), 244-252.
  • Belke, A. (2017). Central bank communication. Managing expectations through monetary dialogue. Ruhr Economic Papers, (692), Essen.
  • Berger, H., Ehrmann, M., and Fratzscher, M. (2011). Monetary policy in the media. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(4), 689-709.
  • Binder, C. (2017). Fed speak on main street: Central bank communication and household expectations. Journal of Macroeconomics, 52, 238-251.
  • Bini Smaghi, L. (2007). The value of central bank communication. Financial market speech series Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (20 November 2007). Brussels.
  • Bittner, J. R. (1988). Fundamentals of communication (2nd ed.). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
  • Blinder, A. S. (2018). Through a crystal ball darkly: the future of monetary policy communication. AEA Papers and Proceedings, (108), 567-71.
  • Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., Haan, J. de, and Jansen, D.-J. (2008). Central bank communication and monetary policy: A survey of theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 46, 910-945.
  • Bordo, M. D., and Siklos, P. L. (2017). Central Bank Credibility before and after the crisis. Open Economies Review, 28(1), 19-45.
  • Burgoon, M., and Ruffner, M. (1978). Human communication. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston.
  • Christelis, D., Georgarakos, D., Jappelli, T., and Van Rooij, M. (2020). Trust in the central bank and inflation expectation. ECB Working Paper, (2375). Frankfurt am Main. Retrieved August 20, 2020 from https://ssrn.com/abstract=3540974
  • Coenen, G., Ehrmann, M., Gaballo, G., Hoffmann, P., Nakov, A., Nardelli, S. …, and Strasser, G. (2017). Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times (CFS Working Paper Series, no. 578). Frankfurt am Main: Center for Financial Studies (CFS), Goethe University Frankfurt.
  • Coeuré, B. (2013). The usefulness of forward guidance. Money Marketeers Club of New York, 26 September 2013.
  • Coeuré, B. (2018). Forward guidance and policy normalisation. Speech by Benoît Coeuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, 17 September 2018.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., and Weber, M. (2019). Monetary policy communications and their effects on household inflation expectations (CESifo Working Paper, no. 7464). Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo).
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., and Ropele, T. (2020a). Inflation expectations and firm decisions: New causal evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(1), 165-219.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kumar, S., and Pedemonte, M. (2020b). Inflation expectations as a policy tool? Journal of International Economics, (124).
  • Cowan, N. (2010). The magical mystery four: How is working memory capacity limited, and why? Current Directions in Psychological Science, 19(1), 51-57.
  • Derieth, A. (1995). Unternehmenskommunikation. Eine theoretische und empirische Analyse zur Kommunikationsqualität von Wirtschaftsorganisationen. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag.
  • Dincer, N. N., and Eichengreen, B. (2014). Central bank transparency and independence. Updates and new measures. International Journal of Central Banking, 10(1), 189-253.
  • Dittrich, W. (2017). HR als steter Motor des Wandels – 3. Mentale Modelle als Zünder, HR Performance: Ihr Businesspartner für HR und IT, 3, 84-85.
  • Dittrich, W., and Biniok, M. (2018). Knowledge transfer as a driver for innovation culture in heterogeneous economic zones. In F. Bakirci, T. Heupel, O. Kocagöz, Ü. Özen (Hrsg.), German-Turkish perspectives on IT and innovation management (pp. 229-246), Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler.
  • Dittrich, W., and Wohlmann, M. (2018). Effizientere Geldpolitik durch bessere Kommunikation? In M. Seidel (Ed.), Banking & Innovation 2018/2019 (pp. 195-213).Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler.
  • Dittrich, W., and Schulz, T. (2020). Entscheiden bei Unsicherheit. In Künstliche Intelligenz in Wirtschaft & Gesellschaft (pp. 231-247). Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler.
  • Doyle, G. (2006). Financial news journalism: a post-Enron analysis of approaches towards economic and financial news production in the UK. Journalism: Theory, Practice and Criticism, 7(4), 433-452.
  • Dräger, L., Lamla, M. J., and Pfajfar, D. (2016). Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news. European Economic Review, (85), 84-111.
  • Draghi, M. (2012). Verbatim of the remarks made by Mario Draghi (Global Investment Conference, 26 July 2012). London.
  • Draghi, M., and Constâncio, V. (2012). Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A) (Monetary Policy Press Conference, 2 August 2012). Frankfurt am Main.
  • Ehrmann, M., and Talmi, J. (2017). Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility (ECB Working Paper, no. 2023). Frankfurt am Main.
  • European Central Bank. (2020). Strategy review. Retrieved September 14, 2020 from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/search/review/html/workstreams.en.html.
  • European Central Bank [ECB]. (2014). The ECB’s Forward Guidance. ECB Monthly Bulletin, (April 2014), 65-73.
  • Fehr, E. (2009). On the economics and biology of trust. Journal of the European Economic Association, 7, 235-266.
  • Gaballo, G. (2016). Rational inattention to news. The perils of forward guidance. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 8(1), 42-97.
  • Glegg, S. M., and Hoens, A. (2016). Role domains of knowledge brokering: a model for the health care setting. Journal of Neurologic Physical Therapy, 40(2), 115-123.
  • Greuel, L. (2001). Wirklichkeit-Erinnerung-Aussage. Weinheim: Beltz PVU.
  • de Guindos, L. (2019). Communication, expectations and monetary policy (Intervention at the ECB policy panel of the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Manchester, 27 August 2019).
  • Haan, J. de, Eijffinger, S., and Waller, S. (2005). The European Central Bank: credibility, transparency, and centralization. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Haldane, A. (2017). A little more conversation, a little less action. Bank of England-Speech. Retrieved August 20, 2020 from http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches
  • Hargie, O., Dickson, D., Tourish, D., and Hargie, O. (2004). Communication skills for effective management. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Hayo, B., and Neuenkirch, M. (2015). Self-monitoring or reliance on media reporting. How do financial market participants process central bank news? Journal of Banking & Finance, (59), 27-37.
  • Hayo, B., and Neuenkirch, M. (2016). Central Banks’ predictability. An assessment by financial market participants (Research Papers in Economics, no. 2/16). Trier: Universität Trier.
  • Hüning, H. (2016). Herausforderungen der geldpolitischen Kommunikation. Wirtschaftsdienst, 96(1), 55-59.
  • Issing, O. (2005). Communication, transparency, accountability: monetary policy in the twenty-first century. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, Part 1, 65-83.
  • Jost, A. (2017). Is monetary policy too complex for the public?: evidence from the UK (Swiss National Bank, SNB Working Papers, no. 15/2017). Retrieved August 20, 2020 from https://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/working_paper_2017_15/source/working_paper_2017_15.n.pdf
  • Kose, A., Matsuoka, H., Panizza, U. G., and Vorisek, D. L. (2019). Inflation expectations: review and evidence. The World Bank. Retrieved August 20, 2020 from http://www.worldbank.org/research
  • Kotler, P. (1994). Marketing management. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
  • Kumar, S., Afrouzi, H., Coibion, O., and Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Inflation targeting does not anchor inflation expectations: Evidence from firms in New Zealand. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (2), 151-208.
  • Luck, S. J., Girelli, M., McDermott, M. T., and Ford, M. A. (1997). Bridging the gap between monkey neurophysiology and human perception: An ambiguity resolution theory of visual selective attention. Cognitive Psychology, 33(1), 64-87.
  • Maletzke, G. (1998). Kommunikationswissenschaft im Überblick. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
  • McQuail, D. (1987). Mass communication theory: An introduction (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
  • Moessner, R., Jansen, D.-J., and Haan, J. de (2017). Communication about future policy rates in theory. A survey. Journal of Economic Surveys, 31(3), 678-711.
  • Morgan, M. G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., and Atman, C. J. (2002). Risk communication: a mental models approach. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press.
  • Morris, S., and Shin, H. S. (2002). Social value of public information. American Economic Review, 92(5), 1521-1534.
  • Morris, S., and Shin, H. S. (2007). Optimal communication. Journal of the European Association, 5(2-3), 594-602.
  • Mullainathan, S., and Shleifer, A. (2005). The market for news. American Economic Review, 95(4), 1031-1053.
  • Neuenkirch, M. (2014). Federal reserve communications and newswire coverage. Applied Economics, 46(25), 3119-3129.
  • Robbins, S. P. (1991). Organizational behavior (5th ed.). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
  • Shannon, C. E., and Weaver, W. (1949). The Mathematical Theory of Communication. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.
  • Sims, C. A. (2010). Rational inattention and monetary economics. In B.M. Friedman, M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. 3 (pp. 155-181). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
  • Smith, V. L. (2020). Causal versus consequential motives in Mental Models of agent social and economic action: experiments, and the neoclassical diversion in economics. Kyklos, 73(3), 341-370.
  • Sveriges Riksbank. (2018). Monetary Policy Report, February 2018. Stockholm.
  • Szyszka, A. (2008). From the efficient market hypothesis to behavioural finance-how investors psychology changes the vision of financial markets. The Icfai Journal of Finance, 2(1), 68-76.
  • Szyszka, A.(2009). Generalized behavioral asset pricing model. IUP Journal of Behavioral Finance, 6(1), 7-25.
  • Szyszka, A. (2010). Belief-and preference-based models. In H.K. Baker, J.R. Nofsinger (Eds), Behavioral finance. investors, corporations, and markets (pp. 351-372). Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.
  • Tutino, A. (2016). Central bank communication must overcome the public’s limited attention span. Economic Letter Dallas Fed, 11(6), 1-4.
  • Velthuis, O. (2015). Making monetary markets transparent. The European Central Bank’s communication policy and its interactions with the media. Economy and Society, 44(2), 316-340.
  • Winkler, B. (2000). What kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making (ECB Working Paper, no. 26). Frankfurt am Main.
  • Woodford, M. (2013). “Fedspeak”: does it matter how central bankers explain themselves? (Columbia University, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper Series, no. 1314-13). New York.

Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.desklight-06228051-4f07-47ce-9ab7-3135ffa2f276
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.