Assessment of Composite Leading Indicators Usefulness in Forecasting Loans and Deposits Cyclical Fluctuations

• Authors: Garczarczyk Józef , Skikiewicz Robert
• Conference: 30th CIRET Conference, Economic Tendency Surveys and the Services Sector
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

The article has been focused on the application of the business cycle barometers for predicting the cyclical fluctuations of the two main categories in the banking market in Poland - PLN loans and PLN deposits. The barometers built for the first time for the Polish banking sector are based on sets of indicators, including both quantitative variables (official statistics data) and qualitative (among others derived from the business tendency survey conducted in the banking sector). Among the components of barometers both macro-economic indicators for the whole economy, as well as the variables from the financial sector and other sectors (including industry and trade) were used. The main aim of the article has been an evaluation of the characteristics of various types of composite leading indicators constructed on the basis of differentiated sets of variables. Then an attempt to construct three types of barometers: with the short, medium and long lead was made. In addition, the best composite leading indicators for each reference variable - PLN loans and PLN deposits were chosen.

Keywords

EN

cyclical barometers; banking sector; forecasting; composite leading indicators

• Publisher: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
• Journal: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
• Year: 2011
• Volume: 86:Business Surveys, Business Cycles. Polish Contribution to the 30th CIRET Conference
• Pages: 135-160

Dates

published

2011

Contributors

author

Garczarczyk Józef

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

author

Skikiewicz Robert

• Uniewrsytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

References

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Identifiers

ISSN

0866-9503