Model of a Regional Business Cycle Indicatorforthe Province of Warmia and Mazury

• Authors: Warżała Rafał
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Business cycle analysis at the national level does not have to be consistent with the economic situation of its individual regions. Diversity in the structure and development dynamics of the individual regions isalso reflected in the range of sensitivity to business cycle changes. Anevaluation was conducted of the suitability of multi-dimensional comparative analysis methods to evaluate the business cycle in the economy on a regional basis based on the example of Warmia and Mazury.The economy of Warmia and Mazury and its sensitivity to macroeconomic disturbances was the subject of the analysis. The business cycle studies by region conducted in Poland are based on so-called "business cycle tests" which are characterised by a high level of subjectivism. They are based on the results of questionnaire-based surveys conducted among entrepreneurs and, as a consequence, it seems justified to build a business cycle indicator for the province of Warmia and Mazury based on "hard" economic data. The proposal of the business cycle indicator for the region of Warmia and Mazury is based on the key economic dimensions for the region. The currently applied methods for elimination of irregular fluctuations and location of turning points were used for designing it. The outcome of the above measures offers the possibility to present the value of the current and prognostic business cycle indicator for Warmia and Mazury with monthly frequency.

Keywords

EN

indicator; business cycle; analysis; region

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Warmińsko-Mazurski w Olsztynie
• Journal: Olsztyn Economic Journal
• Year: 2012
• Volume: 7
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 249-271

Dates

published

2012-12-31

Contributors

author

Warżała Rafał

• Department of Macroeconomics, University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn

References

• Barczyk R., Kowalczyk Z. 1993. Metody badania koniunktury gospodarczej. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa - Poznań.
• Bobrowicz S. 1999. Wahania cykliczne w gospodarce. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego, Gdańsk.
• Carlino G., Sill K. 2001.Regional income fluctuations. Common trends and common cycles. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83: 446-456.
• Crone T.M. 2005. An alternative definition of economic regions in the United States based on similarities in state business cycles. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87: 617-626.
• GFK Polonia, http://www.gfk.pl/sectors-and-markets/custom-research/index.pl.html (access 14.07.2011).
• GUS. Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Portal informacyjny, www.stat.gov.pl/bilans.
• Hall R., Taylor J. 2007. Makroekonomia. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa.
• Herbst M. 2003. Koniunktura gospodarcza metropolii. Wydawnictwo Naukowe "Scholar", Warszawa.
• Lubiński M. 2004. Analiza koniunktury i badanie rynków. Dom Wydawniczy Elipsa, Warszawa.
• Moore G. 1969. Generating leading indicators from lagging indicators. Western Economic Journal 6.
• Malina A. 2004. Wielowymiarowa analiza przestrzennego zróżnicowania struktury gospodarki Polski według województw. Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Krakowie.
• NBP. Narodowy Bank Polski, www.nbp.pl.
• Niemira M.P., Klein P.A. 1994. Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles. John Wiley&Sons, New York.
• Owyang M.T., Rapach D., Howard J. 2009. States and the business cycles. Journal of Urban Economics 65: 181-194.
• Piech K. 2003. Polityczny cykl koniunkturalny - wnioski dla Polski In: Diagnozowanie koniunktury gospodarczej w Polsce. Eds. K. Piech, S. Pangsy-Kania. Dom Wydawniczy Elipsa, Warszawa.
• Solomou S. 1998. Economic Cycles - Long Cycles and Business Cycles Since 1870. Manchester University Press, Manchester.
• Strahl D. 1990. Metody programowania rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego. Państwowe Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne, Warszawa.
• The Gdańsk Institute for Market Economics, http://www.ibngr.edu.pl/ (access 6.07.2011).
• TNS, http://www.pentor.pl (access 14.07.2011).
• Związek Banków Polskich. 2011. Monitor Bankowy, 5 (za Pentor 2009).
• www.wus.olsztyn.pl