Integrated Simulation and Regression Framework for Delivery Management in E-commerce

• Authors: Wiśniewski Tomasz

Title variants

PL

Wykorzystanie połączenia symulacji i regresji dla problemu zarządzania dostawami w sektorze e-commerce

• Languages of publication: EN PL

Abstracts

EN

Problems with commodities and the delivery of products have accompanied trade since its beginnings. It is not possible to stock up, as there will always be limitations – of storage space, resources or financial resources. The e-commerce sector in the age of Industry 4.0 era faces its own specific problems: on the one hand, customers want customised products fast, on the other hand, shops have to lower storage costs and efficiently manage the supply chain. The paper proposes a framework of simulation modelling with a regression module for shops operating in the e-commerce sector; it is a tool for decision-makers that simulates the ordering and delivering process with a varying number of products, suppliers and a varying demand. The aim is to define a novel approach where computer simulation and regression models are integrated and combined in order to provide decision-makers with information about the average delivery time to customers ordering online products and possible delays. The results of analyses show 90% reliability of the regression model in terms of changes in the average delivery time depending on number of products sold by the shop, demand fluctuation, the number of distributors and the average delivery time of products from the distributor.

PL

Problemy z zapasami i dostawą produktów towarzyszyły handlowi od początku jego istnienia. Nie jest możliwe utrzymanie cały czas wysokiego stanu zapasów, ponieważ zawsze będą istniały ograniczenia – powierzchni magazynowej, zasobów materialnych lub zasobów finansowych. Sektor e-commerce w dobie Przemysłu 4.0 boryka się z własnymi specyficznymi problemami: z jednej strony klienci chcą szybko dostać dostosowane do swoich potrzeb produkty, z drugiej zaś – sklepy muszą obniżyć koszty magazynowania i efektywnie zarządzać łańcuchem dostaw. W artykule proponuje się połączenie modelowania symulacyjnego z modułem regresji dla sklepów działających w sektorze handlu elektronicznego; jest to narzędzie dla decydentów, które symuluje proces zamawiania i dostarczania dla różnej liczby produktów, dostawców i zróżnicowanego popytu. Celem artykułu jest zdefiniowanie nowego podejścia, w którym symulacja komputerowa i modele regresji są zintegrowane i połączone w celu dostarczenia decydentom informacji o średnim czasie dostawy i ewentualnych opóźnieniach do klientów zamawiających produkty online. Wyniki analiz modelu regresji pokazują iż 90% zmian średniego czasu dostawy zależy od liczby produktów sprzedawanych przez sklep, wahań popytu, liczby dystrybutorów oraz średniego czasu dostawy produktów od dystrybutora.

Keywords

PL

zarządzanie dostawami modelowanie symulacyjne; analiza regresji; handel elektroniczny; łańcuch dostaw

delivery management simulation modelling regression analysis e-commerce; supply chain

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Warszawski. Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych
• Journal: Problemy Zarządzania
• Year: 2019
• Issue: 2/2019 (82)
• Pages: 205-217

Dates

issued

2019-05-06

Contributors

author

Wiśniewski Tomasz

• University of Szczecin, Faculty of Management and Economics of Services, Department of Quantitative Methods

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Identifiers

DOI

10.7172/1644-9584.82.11

ISSN

1644-9584