Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

PL EN


2015 | 16 | 2 | 123-132

Article title

DATA VINTAGE IN TESTING PROPERTIES OF EXPECTATIONS

Authors

Content

Title variants

Languages of publication

EN

Abstracts

EN
Results of quantification procedures and properties of expectations series obtained for two data vintages are described. Volume index of production sold in manufacturing is defined for end-of-sample and real time data, and evaluated against expectations expressed in business tendency surveys. Empirical analysis confirms that while there are only minor differences in quantification results with respect to data vintage, properties of expectations time series obtained on their basis do diverge.

Year

Volume

16

Issue

2

Pages

123-132

Physical description

Dates

published
2015

Contributors

  • Institute of Econometrics, SGH Warsaw School of Economics

References

  • Anderson O. (1952) The business test of the IFO-Institute for Economic Research, Munich, and its theoretical model, Revue de l’Institut International de Statistique 20, 1–17.
  • Arnold E. A. (2013) The role of revisions and disagreement in professional forecasts, National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 153, Warsaw 2013.
  • Croushore D. (2011) Frontiers of real-time data analysis, Journal of Economic Literature 49, pp. 72-100.
  • Croushore D. (2012) Forecast bias in two dimensions, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Paper No. 12-9.
  • Croushore D., Stark T. (2001) A real-time data set for macroeconomists, Journal of Econometrics 105, pp. 111-130.
  • Da Silva Lopes A. C. B. (1998) On the ‘restricted cointegration test’ as a test of the rational expectations hypothesis, Applied Economics 30, pp. 269-278.
  • Keane M. P., Runkle D. E. (1990) Testing the rationality of price forecasts: new evidence from panel data, American Economic Review 80, pp. 714-735.
  • Koenig E. F., Dolmas S., Piger J. (2003) The use and abuse of real-time data in economic forecasting, The Review of Economic and Statistics 85, pp. 618-628.
  • Liu P. C., Maddala G. S. (1992) Rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets, Journal of International Money and Finance 11, pp. 366-381.
  • Maddala G. S., Kim I.-M. (1998) Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Mehra Y. P. (2002) Survey Measures of Expected Inflation: Revisiting the Issues of Predictive Content and Rationality, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, Vol. 88/3.
  • Nardo M. (2003) The quantification of qualitative survey data: A critical assessment, Journal of Economic Surveys 17 pp. 645-668.
  • Orphanides A. (2001) Monetary policy rules based on real-time data, American Economic Review 91, pp. 964-985.
  • Pesaran M. H. (1989) The Limits to Rational Expectations, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
  • Syczewska E. M. (2013) Wpływ aktualizacji danych makroekonomicznych bazy AMECO na dokładność prognoz [Influence of updates in AMECO macroeconomic database on forecast accuracy], Badania Statutowe nr KAE/S/07/13, KAE SGH, Warszawa.
  • Thomas D. G. (1995) Output expectations within manufacturing industry, Applied Economics 27, pp. 403–408.
  • Tomczyk E. (2011) Oczekiwania w ekonomii. Idea, pomiar, analiza [Expectations in Economics. Definitions, Measurement, Analysis], Oficyna Wydawnicza SGH, Warszawa.
  • Tomczyk E. (2013) End-of-sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations, [in:] Walczyk K. (ed.) Expectations and Forecasting, Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH No. 93, Warsaw School of Economics, pp. 45-69.
  • Tomczyk E. (2014) Influence of data vintage on quantification of expectations, Applied Econometrics Papers No. 14-04.
  • Zarnowitz V. (1985) Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence, NBER Working Paper No. 1503.

Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.desklight-cd9c30f7-bd2c-43f1-942f-8a46a6b803b9
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.