Modeling Gas Prices in Poland with an Application of the Vector Autoregression Method (VAR)

• Authors: Grzegorz Mentel
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

The paper presents examples of gas prices modeling in Poland by means of the VAR model (AutoRegression Vector Model). For comparison, the predictions are made for the models estimated by different variations of the generalized least squares method. The analysis is based on gas prices set by the Carpathian Gas Company after 2000 for the tariffs applied for individual customers. Thus, value forecasts were presented for this type of energy for the “ordinary” customers in the light of the existing regulations.

Keywords

EN

modeling; forecast

• Publisher: Sciendo
• Journal: Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia
• Year: 2012
• Volume: 12
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 46-57

Dates

published

2012-12-01

online

2013-07-30

Contributors

author

Grzegorz Mentel

• Rzeszow University of Technology Faculty of Management Department of Quantitative Methods Powstańców Warszawy 8, 35-959 Rzeszów, Poland

References

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• Kusideł, E. (2000), Modele wektorowo-autoregresyjne VAR. Metodologia i zastosowania, Łódź: Wydawnictwo Absolwent.
• Osińska, M. (2007), Ekonometria współczesna, Toruń: Wydawnictwo Dom Organizatora.
• Shafiee, S. & Topal, E. (2010), A long-term view of worldwide fossil fuel prices, Applied Energy 87.[WoS]
• Tłuczak, A. (2011), Wpływ czynników pogodowych na wielkość i ceny skupu pszenicy i żyta w Polsce, Woda - Środowisko - Obszary Wiejskie, t. 11, z. 4 (36).

Identifiers

DOI

10.2478/v10031-012-0029-2