Ocena skuteczności modelu Beneisha w wykrywaniu manipulacji w sprawozdaniach finansowych

• Authors: Anna Golec

Title variants

Ocena skuteczności modelu Beneisha w wykrywaniu manipulacji w sprawozdaniach finansowych

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

PL

Celem artykułu jest ocena, czy model Beneisha może stanowić użyteczne narzędzie do wykrywania manipulacji wynikami finansowymi, które prowadziły do wydania negatywnej opinii biegłego rewidenta lub odmowy jej wydania w polskich spółkach kapitałowych. Badaniem objęto 24 pary przedsiębiorstw z głównego rynku Giełdy Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie oraz z rynku alternatywnego New Connect. Z przeprowadzonych analiz wynika, że przy punkcie granicznym –2,22 model poprawnie identyfikował 67% manipulatorów i 75% niemanipulatorów. Dokładność modelu wzrastała z 71% do 75% wraz z przesuwaniem punktu odcięcia do –1,98. Kolejną obserwacją był fakt, że duże zmiany w wartościach M‑Score okazały się lepszym kryterium oceny. Klasyfikacja podmiotów na podstawie 35% zmiany wskaźnika rok do roku pozwoliła zwiększyć dokładność grupowania do 85%.

EN

The aim of this study is to verify whether Beneish M‑Score model can be useful in detecting Polish companies involved in earning management practices that lead to adverse or disclaimer of auditors’ opinion. The sample covers 24 pairs of firms listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange or New Connect (alternative market). The findings generally indicate that with –2.22 point cut‑off the model was able to identify 67% of manipulators and 75% non‑manipulators correctly. The accuracy of the model improved from 71% to 75% after shifting the cut‑off point to –1.98. Another observation was that high changes in M‑Score values turned out to be better indicator of manipulation and the classification based on 35% change in year‑to‑year values reached 85% accuracy.

Keywords

PL

model Beneisha; M‑Score; manipulacje wynikami finansowymi; Polska; rynek kapitałowy; model Beneisha; M‑Score; manipulacje wynikami finansowymi; Polska; rynek kapitałowy

EN

Beneish Model; M-Score; financial statement manipulation; Poland; listed companies

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
• Journal: Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica
• Year: 2019
• Volume: 2
• Issue: 341
• Pages: 161-182

Dates

published

2019-07-05

Contributors

author

Anna Golec

• University of Gdansk, Faculty of Management, Department of Corporate Finance

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7174-6246

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Identifiers

DOI

10.18778/0208-6018.341.10