ASSESSING PERMANENT AND TRANSITORY VOLATILITY SPILLOVER EFFECT FROM OIL TO STOCKS IN BALTIC AND VISEGRAD COUNTRIES

• Authors: Živkov Dejan , Gajić-Glamočlija Marina , Đurašković Jasmina , Momčilović Mirela
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This paper researches the size of volatility transmission from Brent oil market to six stock markets of Central and Eastern European countries, with a distinction between the short-term and long-term effect. We create the transitory and permanent parts of volatilities by using the component GARCH model with the optimal density function and inserted dummy variables. Created volatilities are subsequently embedded in the robust quantile regression framework. The results indicate that the transitory volatility shocks are higher than the permanent ones, which means that investors who operate in the short-term horizons need to be more careful for volatility spillovers from oil market than long-term investors. We find that Polish and Czech stock markets receive the strongest volatility impact from oil. On the other hand, Hungarian and Lithuanian stock markets suffer the lowest volatility effect, in both short and long terms, which favours combining these indices with oil. All the findings can be explained very well by the weight of industry sector in GDP and the net-import of oil. Results of weekly data serve as robustness check for the main findings.

Keywords

EN

TRANSITORY; PERMANENT VOLATILITY TRANSMISSION; STOCK INDICES; CGARCH MODEL; BALTIC COUNTRIES; VISEGRAD COUNTRIES; BRENT OIL MARKET

• Publisher: Institute of Slovak and World Economics and Institute for Forecasting, Slovak Academy of Sciences
• Journal: Ekonomický časopis (Journal of Economics)
• Year: 2022
• Volume: 70
• Issue: 6
• Pages: 523 – 543

Contributors

author

Živkov Dejan

• Novi Sad business school, University of Novi Sad, Vladimira Perića Valtera 4, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2357-3250

author

Gajić-Glamočlija Marina

author

Đurašković Jasmina

author

Momčilović Mirela

Identifiers

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31577/ekoncas.2022.06.03