Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population

• Authors: Witold Rzymowski , Agnieszka Surowiec

Title variants

PL

Wybrane metody modelowania liczby ludności świata

• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Selected econometric methods of modelling the world’s population size based on historical data are presented in the paper. Periodical variables were used in the models proposed in the paper. Moreover, a logistic-type function was used in modelling. The purpose of the paper was to obtain a model describing the world’s population with the lowest possible maximal relative error and possibly the longest period of durability. In this work, 13,244 models from three families models were analyzed. Only a small part of such a large number of models satisfies the conditions of stability. The method of modelling the world’s population size allows to obtain models with maximal relative errors not exceeding 0.5%. Selected models were used to prediction of the world’s population up to 2050. The obtained results were compared with data published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Keywords

EN

nonlinear models; estimation; maximal relative error; population; forecast

• Publisher: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu
• Journal: Econometrics. Ekonometria. Advances in Applied Data Analytics
• Year: 2018
• Issue: vol. 22 no. 2
• Pages: 34-44

Contributors

author

Witold Rzymowski

author

Agnieszka Surowiec