Residential electricity consumption in Poland

• Authors: ROPUSZYŃSKA-SURMA Edyta , WĘGLARZ Magdalena
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Key factors influencing electricity consumption in the residential sector in Poland have been iden-tified. A fixed-effects model was used, which includes time effects, and a set of covariates, based on the model developed by Houthakker et al. This model estimates electricity demand by using lagged values of the dependent variable along with current and lagged values of electricity prices, and other variables that affect electricity demand such as: population, economic growth, income per capita, price of related goods, etc. The model has been identified according to the research results of the authors and those obtained by Bentzen and Engsted. The set of covariates was extended to the lagged electricity price given by a tariff (taken from two years previous to the time of interest) and heating degree days index, a very important factor in European Union countries, where the climate is temperate. The authors propose four models of residential electricity demand, for which a confidence interval of 95% has been assumed. Estimation was based on Polish quarterly data for the years 2003–2013.

Keywords

EN

forecasting; demand forecasting; econometric model; electricity consumption; HDD index

• Publisher: Politechnika Wrocławska. Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Wrocławskiej
• Journal: Operations Research and Decisions
• Year: 2016
• Volume: 26
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 69-82

Contributors

author

ROPUSZYŃSKA-SURMA Edyta

• Faculty of Computer Science and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Wybrzeże Wyspiańskiego 27, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland

author

WĘGLARZ Magdalena

• Faculty of Computer Science and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Wybrzeże Wyspiańskiego 27, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland

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Identifiers

DOI

10.5277/ord160305