Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

PL EN


2018 | 19 | 1 | 1-11

Article title

HOW DEMOGRAPHY AFFECTS THE ECONOMY - IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING ON INFLATION

Content

Title variants

Languages of publication

EN

Abstracts

EN
The motivation of this paper is to check whether inflation is linked to the population age structure. To check this hypothesis, a panel data model is used. We regress the changes in CPI on a set of macroeconomic variables. The results of the estimations suggest that there may be a relation between demography and low-frequency inflation. A larger old-age dependency ratio is correlated with lower inflation. This may confirm some of the previous empirical findings that ageing is deflationary when related to increased life expectancy.

Keywords

Contributors

  • Collegium of Economic Analysis, Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

References

  • Anderson D., Botman D., Hunt B. (2014) Is Japan’s Population aging Deflationary? IMF Working Paper 14/139, August.
  • Ando A., Modigliani F. (1963) The ‘Life-cycle’ Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests. American Economic Review, 53(1), 55-84.
  • Bloom D. E., Canning D. (2006) Demographic Challenges, Fiscal Sustainability and Economic Growth. PGDA Working Papers 0806, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  • Bullard J., Garriga C., Walker C. J. (2012) Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2012, 94(6), 419-39.
  • Faik J. (2012) Impacts of an Ageing Society on Macroeconomics and Income Inequality – TGE Case of Germany since the 1980s. Society for the Study of Economic Inequality Working Paper Series No. 2012-272, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, Verona.
  • Gajewski P. (2016) Is Ageing Deflationary? Some Evidence from OECD Countries. Applied Economics Letters, 22(11), 916-919.
  • Juselius M., Takáts E. (2015) Can Demography Affect Inflation and Monetary Policy? BIS Working Papers, 485.
  • Juselius M., Takáts E. (2016) The Age-structure-inflation Puzzle. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper 4/2016.
  • Katagiri, M., Konishi H., Ueda K. (2014). Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Working Paper, 218.
  • Konishi H., Ueda K. (2013) Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective. IMES Discussion Paper Series, 2013-E-13.
  • Kotowska I. E., Jóźwiak J. (2012) Nowa demografia Europy a rodzina. Roczniki Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych, 28/2012, 9-33 (in Polish).
  • Lindh T., Malmberg B. (2000) Can Age Structure Forecast Inflation Trends? Journal of Economics and Business, 52, 31-49.
  • Macura M., MacDonald A. L., Haug W. (eds.) (2005) The New Demographic Regime. Population Challenges and Policy Responses. United Nations, New York and Geneva.
  • McMillan H., Baesel J. (1990) The Macroeconomic Impact of the Baby Boom Generation. Journal of Macroeconomics 12, 167-195.
  • Shirakawa M. (2011a) Bubbles, Demographic Change and Natural Disasters. Opening Speech at 2011 Annual International Conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, the Bank of Japan, June 1.
  • Shirakawa M. (2011b) Globalization and Population Aging: Challenges Facing Japan. Speech to the Board of Councillors of Nippon Keidanren, December 22.
  • Shirakawa M. (2012) Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance: Japanese Experiences. Opening Remark at 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, the Bank of Japan, May 30.
  • Shirakawa M. (2013) Toward Strengthening the Competitiveness and Growth Potential of Japan’s Economy. Speech at the Executive Member Meeting of the Policy Board of Nippon Keidanren, Tokyo, 28 February.
  • Yoon J.-W., Kim J., Lee J. (2014) Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy. IMF Working Paper 14/210, November."

Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.desklight-8a20f9a7-63a9-4389-996a-421623c41841
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.