Zastosowanie teorii szarych systemów do przewidywania przyszłych ofert składanych na aukcjach pierwszej ceny poprzez pryzmat modelu szarego GM(1,1)

• Authors: Stanisław Barczak

Title variants

EN

Application of Gray System Theory to Model the First-Price Auction

• Languages of publication: PL

Abstracts

EN

This paper presents the possibility of applying the theory of gray systems, with particular emphasis on the model GM (1,1) in the modeling of the first price auction. The paper presents the properties of the model GM (1,1) for the ultrashort time series representing the bid made by the participants at the first price auction. An analysis of the residuals simulation model based on the length of the time series and forecasting capabilities based on gray model GM (1,1). The analysis shows that with the decreasing the number of observations in time series (short time series) decreases the expost forecast error. This property is very important in modeling the course of the auction and in particular predicting possible future offerings. Model GM (1,1) can be considered in applications for masterpieces auctions.

Keywords

PL

Aukcje; Metody ekonometryczne; Prognozowanie; Szeregi czasowe

EN

Auctions; Econometric methodology; Forecasting; Time-series

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Katowicach
• Journal: Studia Ekonomiczne
• Year: 2013
• Volume: 146
• Pages: 7-18

Contributors

author

Stanisław Barczak

References

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• Krishna V., Auction Theory, Academic Press 2002.
• Kun-Li Wen, Ting-Cheng Chang, The Research of Completed GM(1,1) Model Toolbox Using Matlab, "International Journal of Computational Cognition" 2005, Vol. 3, September.
• Kuśmierczyk P., Auctions, Publishing House of Wroclaw University of Economics, Wrocław 2010.
• Lim D., Anthony P., Chong Mun H., Kah Wai N., Assessing the Accuracy of Grey System Theory against Artificial Neural Network, w: Predicting Online Auction Closing Price, Proceedings of the International MultiConference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, Vol. I, IMECS, 19-21 March, Hong Kong 2008.

Identifiers

ISSN

2083-8611