Unveiling the Time Effect of a Shock on Electricity Consumption: Evidence from Post-Transition Eu Countries

• Authors: Borozan Đula

Title variants

PL

Efekty czasowe szoków na rynku energii elektrycznej: badania krajów ue, które przeszły transformację ustrojową

• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

This paper explores the time-series properties of the relative per capita electricity consumption series disaggregated by consumer sectors for the presence of a unit root for eleven post-transition EU countries. To that end, the panel unit root tests without and with structural break(s) were used covering the period 2002–2013. The results of the former indicate that electricity consumption is the unit root process for each sector, indicating that any shock thereto is likely to be permanent. The results of the latter support the non-stationary null for the majority of the countries and sectors under investigation, and also point out that each country was exposed to at least one significant shock affecting some of the electricity consumption variables. Thereby, the shocks will probably have permanent effects on them, and their electricity consumption will be path-dependent. Consequently, there is little evidence of convergence of post-transition EU countries to the single electricity market.

PL

Artykuł opisuje własności szeregów czasowych dla danych dotyczących zużycia energii w podziale według sektorów konsumenckich. Stanowi próbę wykrycia obecności pierwiastka jednostkowego w jedenastu krajach UE, które przeszły transformację ustrojową. W tym celu wykorzystano panelowe testy pierwiastka jednostkowego zawierające strukturalną przerwę oraz testy bez strukturalnej przerwy w szeregu czasowym obejmującym okres 2002–2013. Wyniki pierwszego rodzaju testów wskazują, że zużycie energii jest procesem pierwiastka jednostkowego w każdym sektorze, co dowodzi, że każdy szok może okazać się trwały. Wyniki testów drugiego rodzaju potwierdzają zerową hipotezę niestacjonarności dla większości badanych krajów i sektorów, a także wskazują, że każdy kraj był narażony na co najmniej jeden istotny szok oddziałujący na zmienne związane z zużyciem energii. Tym samym szoki będą miały w tych przypadkach prawdopodobnie efekty trwałe, a zużycie energii będzie zależne od wcześniejszych uwarunkowań (path-dependent). W związku z tym, w krajach UE, które przeszły transformację ustrojową, niewiele wskazuje na konwergencję w stronę wspólnego rynku energii elektrycznej.

Keywords

EN

stationarity; panel unit root tests; shock; post-transition EU countries

PL

stacjonarność; panelowe testy pierwiastka jednostkowego; szok; post-transformacyjne kraje UE

• Publisher: Łódzkie Towarzystwo Naukowe
• Journal: Studia Prawno-Ekonomiczne
• Year: 2017
• Volume: 104
• Pages: 201-221

Dates

published

2017

Contributors

author

Borozan Đula

• Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics in Osijek, Croatia

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Identifiers

DOI

10.26485/SPE/2017/104/11