The HSE ESI and the business cycle in the Russian economy

• Authors: Kitrar Ludmila , Lipkind Tamara , Lola Inna , Ostapkovich Georgy , Chusovlyanov Dmitry
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

As the Russian economy is presently characterized by high uncertainty of doing business and a growing gap between opinions and actions of firms and decision makers, the importance of qualitative business surveys as a source of information is significantly rising. The paper investigates the ability of Russian business tendency surveys to identify business cycle turning points. For this purpose we have constructed an algorithm to build economic indicators which cover all information contained in the sectoral business surveys data. Identification of the turning points of these indicators allows us to track the stylized ‘averaged’ chronology of the business cycle. In addition, we have evaluated ex post the turning points in the GDP growth on the basis of the extracted cyclical component of the composite Economic Sentiment Indicator.

Keywords

EN

business cycle; business tendency surveys; turning points; economic tracer; economic sentiment indicator

• Publisher: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
• Journal: Prace i Materiały Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH
• Year: 2015
• Volume: 97: Economic cycles and uncertainty
• Pages: 45-66

Dates

published

2015

Contributors

author

Kitrar Ludmila

• Higher School of Economics, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, Centre for Business Tendency Studies

author

Lipkind Tamara

• Higher School of Economics, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, Centre for Business Tendency Studies

author

Lola Inna

• Higher School of Economics, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, Centre for Business Tendency Studies

author

Ostapkovich Georgy

• Higher School of Economics, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, Centre for Business Tendency Studies

author

Chusovlyanov Dmitry

• Higher School of Economics, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, Centre for Business Tendency Studies

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Identifiers

ISSN

0866-9503