Long-term trends in international migration: lessons from macroeconomic model

• Authors: Docquier Frédéric
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

In this paper I develop a stylized model of the world economy and use it to explain the long-run trends in international migration. The model very well fits the trends of the last 40 years which are mainly governed by the evolution of population disparities between industrialized and developing countries. Then I provide migration projections for the 21st century and show that future migration is also governed by socio-demographic changes. I predict a robust increase in immigration pressures from sub-Saharan Africa and MENA countries to European countries.

Keywords

EN

international migration; projections; world economy; inequality

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu
• Journal: Economics and Business Review
• Year: 2018
• Volume: 4(18)
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 3-15

Dates

published

2018-03-30

Contributors

author

Docquier Frédéric

• FNRS and IRES Université catholique de Louvain, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgique,

References

• Angrist, J. (1995). The Economic Returns to Schooling in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. American Economic Review, 85(5): 1065-1087.
• Arslan, C. & J-C. Dumont & Z. Kone & Y. Moullan & Ozden & C. Parsons & T. Xenogiani (2015). A New Prole of Migrants in the Aftermath of the Recent Economic Crisis. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, 160, OECD Publishing.
• Bertoli, S. & J. Fernandez-Huertas Moraga (2013). Multilateral resistance to migration. Journal of Development Economics, 102(C): 79-100.
• Dao, T.H. & F. Docquier & M. Maurel & P. Schaus (2017). Global migration in the 20th and 21st centuries: the unstoppable force of demography. Manuscript.
• Docquier, F. & J. Machado (2017). Income disparities, population and migration flows over the 21st century. Italian Journal of Economics, 3(2): 125-149.
• Hanson, G. & C. McIntosh (2016). Is the Mediterranean the new Rio Grande? US and EU immigration pressures in the long run. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(4): 57-82.
• Lutz, W. & W.P. Butz & Samir KC (2014). World population and human capital in the twenty-first century. Oxford University Press.
• Ottaviano, G.I.P. & G. Peri (2012). Rethinking the effect of immigration on wages. Journal of the European Economic Association, 10: 152-197.
• Ozden, C. & C.R. Parsons & M. Schiff & T.L. Walmsley (2011). Where on earth is everybody? The evolution of global bilateral migration 1960-2000. World Bank Economic Review, 25(1): 12-56.

Identifiers

DOI

10.18559/ebr.2018.1.1