Modelling of Agricultural Import Demand in Ukraine

• Authors: Shevchuk Victor
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Based on the monthly data from four aggregated agricultural sectors for the 2001-2014 period, this paper investigates the determinants of demand for agricultural imports in Ukraine by using the time-varying parameter technique (the Kalman filter). The outcome suggests that the real exchange rate depreciation contributes to a lower demand for meat, fish and dairy products; vegetable oil and foodstuffs, while not affecting demand for wheat and vegetables. Domestic industrial output correlates with a higher demand for all four groups of agricultural imports. Import substitution effect of domestic agricultural production is found for three out of four groups of agricultural imports, except meat, fish and dairy products. Following an increase in international prices, there is a decrease in demand for wheat and vegetables, as well as for foodstuffs, while there is an opposite effect in demand for other groups, i.e. meat, fish and dairy products and vegetable oil.

Keywords

EN

agricultural imports; the Kalman filter; exchange rate effects; price and income effects

• Publisher: Katedra Informatyki Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
• Journal: Information Systems in Management
• Year: 2014
• Volume: 3
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 201-211

Dates

published

2014

Contributors

author

Shevchuk Victor

• Institute of Economics, Sociology and Philosophy, Cracow University of Technology

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Identifiers

ISSN

2084-5537