How Long Before NATO Aircraft Carrier Force Projection Capabilities Are Successfully Countered? Some effects of the fiscal crises

• Authors: Josip Lučev
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Growth and fiscal policy conducive to economic development have been severely jeopardized in most NATO member countries since 2008. In sharp contrast, China has experienced only a relatively slower GDP growth, which it has mitigated with a fiscally expansionary outlook. Under these conditions, when can we expect the politico-military position of NATO to be challenged? This paper surveys amphibious force projection capabilities in six countries: the USA, the UK, France, Russia, India and the People's Republic of China (PRC). An assessment of the current capability for aircraft carrier building and a survey of carrier-related ambitions is undertaken to offer projections of probable aircraft carrier fleets by 2030. The three non-NATO countries are far better positioned to build aircraft carriers than the three NATO members, with China in the lead. Nevertheless, there is a high probability of the continued military dominance of the USA and NATO, but also of a military build-up focusing on the Indian Ocean.

Keywords

EN

fiscal crises; force projection; NATO; aircraft carrier

• Publisher: Sciendo
• Journal: Croatian International Relations Review
• Year: 2014
• Volume: 20
• Issue: 71
• Pages: 121-151

Dates

published

2014-10-01

online

2014-11-25

Contributors

author

Josip Lučev

References

• Armada Espanola, 2014. Presentacion Buques Superflcie, [online]. Available at: http://www.armada.mde.es/ArmadaPortal/page/Portal/ArmadaEspannola/buques_superficie/prefLang_es/ [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Arrighi, G„ 1994. The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power, and the Origins of our Times. London: Verso.
• Arrighi, G., 2007. Adam Smith in Beijing: Lineages of the Twenty-First Century. London: Verso.
• Arrighi, G. and Silver, B. J., eds., 1999. Chaos and Governance in the Modern World System. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
• Blanchard, B. and Lim, B., 2011. China boosts naval power with carrier program. Reuters, [online] (last updated 27 July 2011). Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/27/us-china-carrier-idUSTRE76QlX120110727 [accessed 1 June 2014]
• Cavas, C. P., 2013. A US Navy with only 8 carriers? The drastic consequences of Hagel’s fleet options. DefenseNews, [online] (last updated 4 August 2013). Available at: http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130804/DEFREG02/308040012/A-US-Navy-Only-8-Carriers [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Commission sur le Livre blanc sur la defense et la securite nationale, 2008. Defense et securite nationale: le livre blanc, [online]. Available at: http://www.Iadocumentationfrancaise.fr/var/storage/rapports-publics/084000341/0000.pdf [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Commission surle Livre blanc surla defense et la securite nationale, 2013. Defense et securite nationale: le livre blanc, [online]. Available at: http://www.gouvemement.fr/sites/default/flIes/fichiers-joints/livre-blanc-sur-la-defense-et-la-securite-nationale_2013.pdf [accessed 1 June 2014].
• CBO, 2013. Discretionary Spending-Option 6, [online]. Available at: http://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2013/44769 [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Chase-Dunn, C. and Podobnik, B., 1999. The next world war: World- system cycles and trends. In Bornschier, V. and Chase-Dunn, C., eds., 1999. The Future of Global Conflict. London: Sage.
• Goldstein, J. S., 1985. Kondratieff waves as war cycles. International Studies Quarterly, 29(4): 411-444.
• Goldstein, J. S., 1988. Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age. New Haven: Yale University Press.
• Goldstein, J. S., 2006. The predictive power of long wave theory, 1989-2004. In Devezas, T. C. ed. 2006. Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security. Amsterdam: IOS Press.
• HM Government, 2010. Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: The Strategic Defence and Security Review, [online]. Available at: http://www.direct.gov.uk/prod_consum_dg/groups/dgdigitalassets/@dg/@en/documents/digitalasset/dg_l91634.pdf [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Hoffman, M., 2014. China plans to build 4 aircraft carriers. Defensetech, [online] (last updated 22 January 2014). Available at: http://defensetech.org/2014/01/22/china-plans-to-build-4-aircraft-carriers/ [accessed 1 June 2014].
• IMF, 2014. WEO database April 2014, [online]. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/weodata/index.aspx [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Indian Navy, 2013. Indian Navy (homepage), [online]. Available at: http://nausena-bharti.nic.in [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Ireland, B., 2010. Aircraft Carriers of the World. London: Hermes House.
• Kislyakov, A., 2007. Will Russia create the world's second largest surface navy? RIA Novosti, [online] (last updated 13 November 2007). Available at: http://en.ria.ru/analysis/20071113/87843710.html [accessed 1 June 2014].
• LaGrone, S., 2014. Updated: Navy unfunded request for carrier refueling removed. USNI News, [online) (last updated 3 April 2014). Available at: http://news.usni.org/2014/04/02/pentagon-removes-navy-unfunded-request-carrier-refueling-money [accessed 1 June 2014).
• Marinha do Brasil, 2013. Navios, [online]. Available at: https://www.marinha.mil.br/navios [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Marina Militare, n.d. Navi,[online]. Available at: http://www.marina.difesa.it/UOMINIMEZZI/NAVI/Pagine/Homepage.aspx [accessed 1 June 2014).
• Martina, M. and Torode, G„ 2014. China's Xi ramps up military spending in face of worried region. Reuters, [online] (last updated 5 March 2014). Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/05/us-china-parliament-defence-id-US-BREA2403L20140305 [accessed 1 June 2014).
• Takahashi, K. and Hardy, J„ 2014. Onodera sets out plans to buy amphibious assault ships. IHS Jane's Defence Weekly, [online] (last updated 9 July 2014). Available at: http://www.janes.com/article/40626/onodera-sets-out-plans-to-buy-amphibious-assault-ships [accessed 1 August 2014).
• Marine nationale, 2013. Liste des batiments de combat de la Marine nationale par unite,[online]. Available at: http://www.defense.gouv.fr/marine/decouverte/equipements-moyens-materiel-militaire/batiments-de-combat/liste-des-batiments-de-combat-de-la-marine-nationale-par-unite [accessed 1 June 2014]
• Modelski, G., 1978. The long cycle of global politics and the nation- state. Comparative Studies in Society and History, 20(2): 214-235.
• MOD Russia (MnHo6opoHbi России), n.d. Тижелт авианесутии креисер проекта 1143.5 ((Алмирал Флота Советского Со/оза Кузнецов«, [online]. Available at: http://structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/navy/weapons/more.htm?id=10339678@morfMilitaryModel [accessed 1 June 2014]
• Naval Technology, 2014. Industry projects, [online]. Available at: http://www.naval-technology.com/projects [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, 2013. Long-Range Plan for Construction of Naval Vessels for FY2014. Washington.
• O’Rourke, R., 2014. Navy Ford (CVN-78) Class Aircraft Carrier Program: Background and Issues for Congress. 9 April 2014. RS20643, CRS Reports.
• O’Rourke, R., 2014b. China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S.
• Navy Capabilities-Background and Issues for Congress. 10 April 2014. RL33153, CRS Reports.
• Oxenstiema, S., 2013. The Russian defence budget and the state armament programme up to 2020. In: SIPRI, 17th Annual International Conference on Economics and Security Stockholm, Sweden, 14-15 June 2013 [online]. Available at: http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/ICE$2013/papers/archive/oxenstierna-russian-defence-budget-and-sap [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Pettersen, T., 2011. Russia to build two aircraft carriers, Barents Observer, [online] (last updated 3 November 2011). Available at: http://barentsobserver.com/en/topics/russia-build-two-aircraft-carriers [accessed 1 June 2014].
• RIA Novosti, 2010. France wins tender to build warships for Russia (Update 1), RIA Novosti, [online] (last updated 24 December 2010). Available at: http://en.ria.ru/russia/20101224/161921890.html [accessed 1 June 2014].
• RIA Novosti, 2011a. Russia to build nuclear aircraft carrier by 2023, RIA Novosti, [online] (last updated 30 June 2011). Available at: http://en.ria.ru/mi|itary_news/20110630/164924604.html [accessed 1 June 2014].
• RIA Novosti, 2011 b. Russia to build new shipyards for Mistral construction, RIA Novosti, [online] (last updated 12 January 2011). Available at: http://en.ria.ru/military-news/20110112/162110808.html [accessed 1 June 2014].
• ROKN (Republic of Korea Navy), n.d. Ships. Available at: http://www.navy.mil.kr/english/sub_guide/sub_data.jsp?menu=3 [accessed 1 June 2014).
• Royal Australian Navy, n.d. Amphibious Assault Ship (LHD). Available at: http://www.navy.gov.au/fleet/ships-boats-cratt/lhd [accessed 1 August 2014).
• Royal Navy, n.d. Royal Navy, [online - homepage]. Available at: http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk [accessed 1 June 2014]
• Schank, J. F„ Kallimani, J. G., Chandler, J., Arena, M. V., Price, C. C. and Grammich, C. A., 2011. Changing Aircraft Carrier Procurement Schedules: Effects that a Five-Year Procurement Cycle would have on Cost, Availability, and Shipyard Manpower and Workload. RAND.
• Sharma, R„ 2012. India plans a 65,000-tonne warship. The New Indian Express, [online] (last updated 6 August 2012). Available at: http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/article583809.ece [accessed 1 June 2014).
• Sieg, L. and Takenaka, K., 2014. Japan takes historic step from post- war pacifism, OKs fighting for allies. Reuters, [online) (last updated 1 July 2014). Available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/01/us-japan-defense-idUSKBN0F52Sl20140701 [accessed 1 August 2014).
• Tausch, A. 2006. From the "Washington” towards a “Vienna Consensus”? A quantitative analysis on globalization, development and global governance. In: Centro Argentino de Estudioslntemacionales, EU- Latin America and Caribbean Summit 2006. Vienna, 11-12 May 2006, [online]. Available at: http://www.forschungsnetzwerk.at/downloadpub/CAE!_Buenos_Aires_Vienna_Summit_arno_tausch.pdf [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Toynbee, A. J., 1954. A Study of History, Volume 9. London: Oxford University Press.
• US Navy, 2013a. Amphibious Transport Dock-LPD, [online] (2 May 2013). Available at: http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display.asp?cid=4200&tid=600&ct=4 [accessed 1 June 2014).
• US Navy, 2013b. AMPH/B/OUS ASSAULT SHIPS - LHA/LHD/LHA/R), [online] (14 November 2013). Available at: http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display.asp?cid=4200&tid=400&ct=4 [accessed 1 June 2014].
• US Navy, 2013c. AIRCRAFT CARRIERS - CVN, [online] (20 November 2013). Available at: http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact/display.asp?cid=4200&tid=200&ct=4 [accessed 1 June 2014].
• USNI, 2014. China wants a four carrier navy, maybe. USNI News, [online] (last updated 22 January 2014). Available at: http://news.usni.org/2014/01/22/china-wants-four-camer-navy-maybe [accessed 1 June 2014].
• Wallerstein, I., 1980. The Modem Worid-System, Volume 2, Mercantilism and the Consolidation of the European World-Economy. New York: Academic Press.
• Wright, Q., 1942. A Study of War. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
• Yardley, R. J., Kallimani, J. G., Schank, J. F. and Grammich, C. A., 2008. Increasing Aircraft Carrier Forward Presence: Changing the Length of the Maintenance Cycle. RAND.

Identifiers

DOI

10.2478/cirr-2014-0011