New system of employment forecasting in Poland

• Authors: Łukasz Arendt
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

The goal of the paper was to describe the system of employment forecasting in Poland and to present forecasts results. The paper described the main assumptions and elements of the system of employment forecasting (the structure of econometric models and on-line forecasting tool). It also elaborated on employment forecasts at national, regional and occupational levels. The analysis of forecasts enabled drawing some conclusions, important from the point of view of the perspectives of the Polish labour market and the labour market policy.

Keywords

EN

employment forecasting; occupations; econometric modelling; Polish labour market; regional disparities

• Publisher: Sciendo
• Journal: Przedsiębiorczość i Zarządzanie
• Year: 2014
• Volume: 15
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 75-90

Dates

online

2014-08-15

Contributors

author

Łukasz Arendt

• University of Lodz

References

• Acemoglu D., Autor D. (2011), Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earning [in] O. Ashenfelter, D. Card (eds), Handbook of Labour Economics, Vol. 4B, Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp. 1043–1171.
• Arendt Ł., Ulrichs M. (eds) (2012), Best practices in forecasting labour demand in Europe, Instytut Pracy i Spraw Socjalnych, Warsaw.
• Bukowski M. (ed.) (2010), Employment in Poland 2008. Work over the life course, Human Resources Development Centre, Warsaw.
• Capellen A., Gjefsen H., Gjelsvik M., Holm I., Stolen N.M. (2013), Forecasting demand and supply of labour by education, Statistics Norway, Oslo.
• Cörvers F., Dupuy A. (2010), Estimating Employment Dynamics across Occupations and Sectors of Industries, ,,Journal of Macroeconomics”, vol. 32, issue 1, pp. 17–27.[WoS]
• De arbeidsmarkt naar opleiding en beroep tot 2016 (2011), Researchcentrum voor Onderwijs en Arbeidsmarkt, Maastricht University, School of Business and Economics, Maastricht.
• Future skills needs in Europe: medium-term forecast. Background technical report (2009), CEDEFOP, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
• Future skills supply and demand in Europe. Forecast 2012 (2012), CEDEFOP, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union.
• Heijke H. (ed.) (1994), Forecasting the Labour Market by Occupation and Education, Springer Science+Business Media, New York.
• Helmrich R., Zika G. (eds) (2010), Berufund Arbeit in der Zukunft – BIBB-IAB-Modellrechnungen zu den Entwicklungen in den Berufsfeldern und Qualifikationen bis 2025, W. Bertelsmann Verlag, Bielefeld.
• Hyndman R. J., Booth H. (2008), Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration, ˶International Journal of Forecasting”, vol. 24, Issue 3, pp. 323–342.[WoS]
• Kryńska E. (2007), Podstawy konstrukcji modelu systemu zmniejszania niedostosowań strukturalnych podaży pracy i popytu na pracę w województwie mazowieckim [in] E. Kryńska (ed.), Regionalny system koordynacji rynku pracy województwa mazowieckiego PRACA-ZATRUDNIENIE-SZKOLENIE. Syntezy wyników badań i rekomendacje, Tom II, Instytut Organizacji i Zarządzania w Przemyśle i Instytut Pracy i Spraw Socjalnych, Warszawa.
• Kwiatkowski E., Kwiatkowska W., Gajdos A. (2011), Stworzenie koncepcji modeli prognoz zatrudnienia według zawodów dla wybranego województwa, mimeo, Instytut Pracy i Spraw Socjalnych, Warszawa.
• Neugart M., Schomann K. (eds) (2002), Forecasting labour markets in OECD countries. Measuring and tackling mismatches, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, Northamption.
• New Skills for New Jobs. Anticipating and matching labour market and skills needs, Communication from the Commission, COM(2008) 868, 16 December 2008.
• Prognoza ludności na lata 2008-2035 (2009), Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Wa rszawa.
• Fox R., Cornerford B. (2008), Estimating replacement demand: lessons from Ireland, ˶International Journal of Manpower”, vol. 29, Issue 4, pp. 348–361.[WoS]
• Wilson R. (2013), Skills anticipation – The future of work and education, ˶International Journal of Educational Research”, vol. 61, pp. 101–110.

Identifiers

DOI

10.2478/eam-2014-0018