Full-text resources of CEJSH and other databases are now available in the new Library of Science.
Visit https://bibliotekanauki.pl

PL EN


2016 | 5(83) |

Article title

Crisis Periods, Contagion and Integration Effects in the Major African Equity Markets During the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis

Content

Title variants

Languages of publication

Abstracts

EN
The contribution of the first named author is based on research supported by the National Research Foundation, Grant Number 87502. We thank Antonie Kotzé for providing us with some of the data that we required in this paper.
EN
A number of studies assert that during critical events cross-market correlations change substantially. The main focus of this paper is to explicitly test two research hypotheses concerning the effect of increasing cross-market correlations in the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) compared to the pre-crisis period. These hypotheses state that there was no contagion and no integration effects among the U.S., the U.K., and selected African stock markets (South Africa, Namibia, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco and Kenya) during the GFC. The crisis periods are formally detected using a statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets. The sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2013, and it includes the 2007 U.S. subprime crisis. Obtained results indicate that there is no reason to reject both research hypotheses. Moreover, the results confirm a heterogeneity of the African equity markets in the context of the influence of the recent global crisis.

Year

Volume

Physical description

Dates

published
2016

Contributors

References

  • Aduda J., Masila J. M., Onsongo E. N., 2012, The Determinants of Stock Market Development: The Case for the Nairobi Stock Exchange, “International Journal of Humanities and Social Science”, 2(9).
  • Ahmadu-Bello J., Rodgers T., 2012, The 2007 Financial Crisis: A Comparison of the Nature of Contagion Found in Developed Markets and Emerging/Frontier African Markets, “Economics, Finance and Accounting. Applied Research Working Paper Series”, Coventry University Business School.
  • Allen F., Giovannetti G., 2011, The Effects of the Financial Crisis on Sub-Saharan Africa, “Review of Development Finance”, 1.
  • Asongu S. A., 2013, African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment, “Journal of African Business”, 14(3).
  • Bartram S. M., Bodnar G., 2009, No Place to Hide: The Global Crisis in Equity Markets in 2008/2009, “Journal of International Money and Finance”, 28(8).
  • Beine M., Osma A., Vermeulen R., 2010, The Dark Side of Global Integration: Increasing Tail Dependence, “Journal of Banking and Finance”, 34(1).
  • Bekaert G., Harvey C.R., Ng A., 2005, Market Integration and Contagion, „Journal of Business”, 78(1).
  • Billmeier A., Massa J., 2008, Go Long or Short in Pyramids? News from the Egyptian Stock Market, “International Review of Financial Analysis”, 17(5).
  • Brière M., Chapelle A., Szafarz A., 2012, No Contagion, only Globalization and Flight to Quality, “Journal of International Money and Finance”, 31.
  • Brunnermeier M. K., 2009, Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008, “Journal of Economic Perspectives”, 23(1).
  • Bry G., Boschan C., 1971, Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, NBER, New York.
  • Calomiris C. W., Love J., Martinez Peria M. S., 2012, Stock Returns’ Sensitivities to Crisis Shocks: Evidence from Developed and Emerging Markets, “Journal of International Money and Finance”, 31(4).
  • Chesnay F., Jondeau E., 2001, Does Correlation between Stock Returns Really Increase during Turbulent Periods?, “Economic Notes”, 30.
  • Claessens S., Dell’Ariccia G., Igan D., Laeven L., 2010, Cross-Country Experience and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis, “Economic Policy”, 62.
  • Collins D., Abrahamson M., 2004, African Equity Markets and the Process of Financial Integration, “South African Journal of Economics”, 72(4).
  • Collins D., Biekpe N., 2003a, Contagion: A Fear for African Equity Markets?, “Journal of Economics and Business”, 55.
  • Collins D., Biekpe N., 2003b, Contagion and Interdependence in African Stock Markets, “South African Journal of Economics”, 71(1).
  • Didier T., Love I., Martinez Peria M. S., 2012, What Explains Comovement in Stock Market Returns during the 2007-2008 Crisis?, “International Journal of Finance and Economics”, 17.
  • Doornik J. A., Hansen H., 2008, An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality, “Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics”, 70, Supplement 1.
  • Dungey M., Fry R., Gonzales-Hermosillo B., Martin V. L., 2005, Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies, “Quantitative Finance”, 5(1).
  • Edwards S., 2000, Contagion, “The World Economy”, 23(7).
  • Eita J. H., 2012, Modelling Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Prices: Evidence from Namibia, “Journal of Applied Business Research”, 28(5).
  • Enisan A. A., Olufisayo A. O., 2009, Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Seven Sub-Sahara African Countries, “Journal of Economics and Business”, 61.
  • Fisher R. A., 1921, On the “Probable Error” of a Coefficient of Correlation Deduced from a Small Sample, “Metron”, 1.
  • Forbes K. J., Rigobon R., 2002, No Contagion, only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements, “Journal of Finance”, 57(5).
  • Ghysels E., Cherkaoui M., 2003, Emerging Markets and Trading Costs: Lessons from Casablanca, “Journal of Empirical Finance”, 10(1-2).
  • Goetzmann W. N., Li L., Rouwenhorst K. G., 2005, Long-Term Global Market Correlations, “Journal of Business”, 78(1).
  • Heymans A., Da Camara R., 2013, Measuring Spill-Over Effects of Foreign Markets on the JSE before, during and after International Financial Crises, “South African Journal of Economics and Management Sciences”, 16(4).
  • Jefferis K., Smith G., 2005, The Changing Efficiency of African Stock Markets, “South African Journal of Economics”, 73(1).
  • Jennrich R. I., 1970, An Asymptotic Chi-Square Test for the Equality of Two Correlation Matrices, “Journal of the American Statistical Association”, 65.
  • Kodongo O., Ojah K., 2012, The Dynamic Relation between Foreign Exchange Rates and International Portfolio Flows: Evidence from Africa’s Capital Markets, “International Review of Economics and Finance”, 24.
  • Kotzé A., Labuschagne C., 2014, The Dilemma of Central Counterparty versus a Qualified Central Counterparty in a Developing Country, “Procedia Economics and Finance”, 14.
  • Lagoarde-Segot T., Lucey B. M., 2009, Shift-Contagion Vulnerability in the MENA Stock Markets, “The World Economy”, 32(10).
  • Lane P. R., Milesi-Ferretti G. M., 2011, The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis, “IMF Economic Review”, 59(1).
  • Larntz K., Perlman M. D., 1985, A Simple Test for the Equality of Correlation Matrices, Technical Report No. 63, Department of Statistics, University of Washington.
  • Lee J.-S., Kuo C.-T., Yen P.-H., 2011, Market States and Initial Returns: Evidence from Taiwanese IPOs, “Emerging Markets Finance & Trade”, 47(2).
  • Leung R., Stampini M., Vencatachellum D., 2014, Does Human Capital Protect Workers against Exogenous Shocks? Evidence from Panel Data on South Africa during the 2008-2009 Crisis, “South African Journal of Economics”, 82(1).
  • Longin F., Solnik B., 1995, Is the Correlation in International Equity Returns Constant: 1960-1990?, “Journal of International Money and Finance”, 14(1).
  • Lunde A., Timmermann A., 2000, Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets, University of California, San Diego.
  • Morales L., Andreosso-O’Callaghan B., 2014, The Global Financial Crisis: World Market or Regional Contagion Effects?, “International Review of Economics and Finance”, 29.
  • Neaime S., 2012, The Global Financial Crisis, Financial Linkages and Correlations in Returns and Volatilities in Emerging MENA Stock Markets, “Emerging Markets Review”, 13.
  • Neidhardt T., 2009, Solving the Puzzle: Stock Market Spillover Effects between Namibia and South Africa, “University of Montana Working Paper”, SSRN-id1340147.
  • Ntim C. G., Opong K. K., Danbolt J., Dewotor F., 2011, Testing the Weak-Form Efficiency in African Stock Markets, “Managerial Finance”, 37(3).
  • Olbrys J., 2013, Price and Volatility Spillovers in the Case of Stock Markets Located in Different Time Zones, “Emerging Markets Finance & Trade”, 49(S2).
  • Olbrys J., Majewska E., 2014, The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis on Emerging Markets: Quantitative Identification of Crisis in Continent-Based Regions, “Chinese Business Review”, 13(7).
  • Pagan A. R., Sossounov K. A., 2003, A Simple Framework for Analysing Bull and Bear Markets, “Journal of Applied Econometrics”, 18(1).
  • Pericoli M., Sbracia M., 2003, A Primer on Financial Contagion, “Journal of Economic Surveys”, 17(4).
  • Piesse J., Hearn B., 2005, Regional Integration of Equity Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, “South African Journal of Economics”, 73(1).
  • Rigobon R., 2002, Contagion: How to Measure it? [In:] Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, (eds) Edwards S., Frankel J. A., University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
  • Rose A. K., Spiegel M. M., 2012, Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning, “Japan and the World Economy”, 24.
  • Smith G., Jefferis K., Ryoo H.-J., 2002, African Stock Markets: Multiple Variance Ratio Tests of Random Walks, “Applied Financial Economics”, 12(7).

Document Type

Publication order reference

Identifiers

URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11320/5258

YADDA identifier

bwmeta1.element.hdl_11320_5258
JavaScript is turned off in your web browser. Turn it on to take full advantage of this site, then refresh the page.