Analysis of the Aviation Safety Management System by Fractal and Statistical Tools

• Authors: Bugayko Dmytro , Leshchynskyi Oleg , Sokolova Nataliya , Isaienko Volodymyr , Zamiar Zenon
• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

World civil aviation is an open-source system that is affected by a large number of related and non-related factors. Aviation safety is one of the prioritized directions in the industry. Its managerial decision-making process is primarily based on a versatile analysis of security data in which the choice of the appropriate mathematical apparatus is fundamental. This article suggests applying fractal-statistical analysis to evaluate the aviation safety management system in terms of determining the random distribution of quantitative dynamics of aircraft crashes with lethal consequences in the period from 1946 to 2017. This allows us to verify the adequacy of probabilistic approaches appliance in analysing the dynamics of aviation disasters. The results of research carried out on the basis of the Hurst exponent have allowed us to conclude that the dynamics of aviation disasters is characterized by the effect of "spatial memory". In other words, these are "hidden laws", for which further investigation can become an effective tool for the development of proactive methods in managing aviation safety.

Keywords

EN

aviation safety; data analysis; fractal-statistical analysis; the Hurst exponent

• Publisher: Międzynarodowa Wyższa Szkoła Logistyki i Transportu
• Journal: Logistics and Transport
• Year: 2019
• Volume: 44
• Pages: 41-60

Contributors

author

Bugayko Dmytro

• Nacionalnyj aviacijnyj universytet Kyjiv

author

Leshchynskyi Oleg

• Nacionalnyj aviacijnyj universytet Kyjiv

author

Sokolova Nataliya

• Nacionalnyj aviacijnyj universytet Kyjiv

author

Isaienko Volodymyr

• Nacionalnyj aviacijnyj universytet Kyjiv
• Nacionalna akademija nauk Ukrajiny Kyjiv

author

Zamiar Zenon

• Międzynarodowa Wyższa Szkoła Logistyki i Transportu we Wrocławiu