The Forecasting Of Labour Force Participation And The Unemployment Rate In Poland And Turkey Using Fuzzy Time Series Methods

• Authors: Ufuk Yolcu , Eren Bas

Title variants

Prognozowanie aktywności zawodowej i stopy bezrobocia w Polsce i Turcji przy użyciu metody rozmytych szeregów czasowych

• Languages of publication: EN

Abstracts

EN

Fuzzy time series methods based on the fuzzy set theory proposed by Zadeh (1965) was first introduced by Song and Chissom (1993). Since fuzzy time series methods do not have the assumptions that traditional time series do and have effective forecasting performance, the interest on fuzzy time series approaches is increasing rapidly. Fuzzy time series methods have been used in almost all areas, such as environmental science, economy and finance. The concepts of labour force participation and unemployment have great importance in terms of both the economy and sociology of countries. For this reason there are many studies on their forecasting. In this study, we aim to forecast the labour force participation and unemployment rate in Poland and Turkey using different fuzzy time series methods.

PL

Metody rozmytych szeregów czasowych oparte na teorii zbiorów rozmytych zaproponowanej przez Zadeh (1965) zostały użyte po raz pierwszy w badaniach Song i Chissom (1993). Od tego czasu przy wykorzystaniu metod rozmytych szeregów nie obowiązują  założenia wymagane dla tradycyjnych szeregów czasowych. Szeregi rozmyte stanowią jednak skuteczne narzędzie prognozowania, a zainteresowanie nimi jest coraz większe. Stosowane są w niemal wszystkich dziedzinach naukowych, takich jak ochrona środowiska, finanse i ekonomia. Szczególne znaczenie w obszarze ekonomii i socjologii mają zjawiska aktywności zawodowej i bezrobocia. Z tego powodu istnieje wiele badań z zakresu ich prognozowania. W niniejszym artykule wykorzystano właśnie różne metody rozmytych szeregów czasowych dla sporządzenia prognozy aktywności zawodowej i stopy bezrobocia w Polsce i Turcji.

Keywords

EN

fuzzy time series; forecasting; labour force participation; unemployment

PL

rozmyte szeregi czasowe; prognozowanie; aktywność zawodowa; bezrobocie; rozmyte szeregi czasowe; prognozowanie; aktywność zawodowa; bezrobocie

• Publisher: Uniwersytet Łódzki. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
• Journal: Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe
• Year: 2016
• Volume: 19
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 5-25

Dates

published

2016-06-30

Contributors

author

Ufuk Yolcu

• Ankara University, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Statistics

author

Eren Bas

• Giresun University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Statistics

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Identifiers

DOI

10.1515/cer-2016-0010