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Evaluating the nexus between financial deepening and economic growth: evidence from Ukraine

100%
Kondrat I., Kots O.
Nauki o Finansach
|
2018
|
issue vol. 23 no. 1
49-64
EN
In this paper systemic problems of Ukrainian banking sector are reviewed and the solutions are offered. The main objective of the study is to examine the relationship between a financial deepening and economic growth in Ukraine by estimating several multiple regression models over the 1993 to 2015 period. A real GDP growth per capita was used as an indicator for the economic growth. The domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) was used as an index of financial depth. The study concludes that financial deepening causes a slight impact on the economic growth of Ukraine. A low level of impact is an indicator of a limitedness of lending to the real economy. This means that banking sector has not become the real driving force of the economic growth in Ukraine yet. The study suggests a statement that policy makers should design the policies which will encourage lending especially high tech production, small and mid-size business, micro financing to the real economy to promote economic growth and increase employment.
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The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Ukraine

81%
Kondrat I., Pozniakova O., Chervinska O.
Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia
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2019
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vol. 53
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issue 4
EN
Theoretical background: The growth in government borrowing, carried out in connection with the banks’ capitalisation, significantly increased the state budget expenditures aimed at servicing the capitalisation domestic public debt, which reinforces the general tendency regarding the exacerbation of the budget risk in the debt sphere in Ukraine. A weighty debt-creating factor was the budget deficit, which was covered by borrowing. Proceeding ahead of the rate of increase in debt volumes in comparison with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates under the influence of internal and external destabilising factors contributed to the excess of the debt levels security indicators and increased the insolvency risk of the state. The increase of the obligations share denominated in foreign currency or linked to the exchange rate in the overall debt structure as an important indicator of the financial system’s vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations creates additional threats to debt sustainability regarding the increasing currency risk and the national currency devaluation.Purpose of the article: The article is focused on studying the dynamics and structure of Ukraine’s public debt, its ratio to GDP, and an empirical analysis of the relationship between public debt (external and domestic) and economic growth in Ukraine.Research methods: To empirically test the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Ukraine over the 1992 to 2018 period, multiple regression models were conducted. A real GDP per capita was used as an indicator for economic growth and the debt-to-GDP ratio was used as an index of public debt. Research hypotheses were the following: H1: The public external debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita have a strong negative and statistically relevant correlation; H2: The public domestic debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita have a strong negative and statistically relevant correlation.Main findings: Examining the dynamics and structure of Ukraine’s public debt by borrowing market (external and domestic), it is concluded that there is no strong negative or positive statistically relevant correlation between the public debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita for Ukraine. The impact of this factor is so insignificant that it encourages further research to verify that low GDP growth rate causes the increase in Ukraine’s public debt.
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